3 bold predictions for Saints vs. Broncos on Thursday Night Football

Much is being made of former Saints coach Sean Payton's return to the Superdome for the first time as a head coach elsewhere, as he brings his Denver Broncos (3-3) in his second season to New Orleans. He'll meet a sinking Saints outfit (2-4), which has lost four straight. And his prized pupil while the Saints coach from 2006-21 (excluding the 2012 suspension for Bountygate), quarterback Drew Brees, will just happen to be on hand as well.

The Saints are celebrating Brees' entry into the team's Hall of Fame with a halftime ceremony. Brees wanted his night on a Thursday, so he can continue to coach his kids in youth football back home in the San Diego area. Payton was also expected at Brees' Hall of Fame banquet Thursday afternoon in the city.

The two of them rejuvenated both a franchise — which had exactly one playoff victory (2000 season) before their arrival — and a city — which was literally as shredded as the dome's roof was by Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 29, 2005. Payton was hired after that season, and the team soon signed Brees from the San Diego Chargers. Under the dynamic duo, the Saints won Super Bowl XLIV with Brees taking the MVP, won seven NFC South titles, played in three NFC title games and advanced in the playoffs seven times out of nine appearances.

The offenses of Payton and Brees were also the state of the art and consistently among the NFL's leaders in scoring and yards. But Payton is bringing one of the worst offenses of his coaching career to his homecoming, which could put a damper on it. This should bode well for the Saints' defense, which is coming off its worst performance since 2004 as it allowed 594 yards in a 51-27 loss to Tampa Bay in the dome last week. And if quarterback Spencer Rattler can improve on his debut last week behind a running game that has had its moments this season, look out for an upset.

Sean Payton and Drew Brees reunion to be ruined

Denver coach Sean Payton is known for elite offense, but Denver comes to New Orleans as No. 29 in the NFL in total offense with 278.2 yards a game and only 10 touchdowns. The passing offense is No. 27 with 170.8 a game. Rookie quarterback Patrick Nix is struggling at No. 27 in QBR at 44.0. He is No. 23 in passing yards with 1,082 on 121-of-198 passing for 180.3 a game with five touchdowns and five interceptions.

The Broncos' rush offense is No. 23 in the league with 170.8 a game. And Payton's scoring attack is No. 25 with 18.7 a game and just 10 touchdowns.

All that is music to the Saints' defense, which needs a break as it is dead last in the NFL in total defense with 395.8 yards allowed a game.

The Saints offense under new coordinator Klint Kubiak, who was Denver's passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2022 and the 49ers' pass game coordinator last year, has better numbers than Payton. New Orleans is No. 5 in the NFL in scoring with 27.8 points a game and twice as many touchdowns as Denver with 20. Most of that came in the 2-0 start with 47-10 and 44-19 wins over Carolina and Dallas, but it can be done.

The Saints are also decent in the run game at No. 13 with 119.5 yards a game as Alvin Kamara is having a good season. The total offense is No. 18 (319.8) a game and the pass offense is No. 21 (200.3). But, alas, Denver fields one of the NFL's best defenses — No. 4 in fewest total yards allowed at 284.3 and No. 5 against the pass at 170.2 given up. The Saints will have a chance to run the ball as the Broncos are a little off there at No. 14 with 114.2 allowed a game.

The Superdome should be rocking but in a strange way. Many Saints fans have been for coach Dennis Allen's ouster since his first season after replacing Payton in 2022 when New Orleans went 7-10 for its first losing season since 2016. He's under immense criticism now at 2-4. The Saints finished 9-8 last year, but after a 5-7 start. Will the home fans be cheering on Payton for nostalgia and to hasten Allen's departure?

Payton did help resurrect Allen's career when he hired him as his defensive coordinator in New Orleans after the Raiders fired him with an 8-28 record in 2014. Allen did not initially want to discuss Payton's return.

"I'll be honest with you, I don't think that's where our focus needs to be," he said. "Our focus needs to be on our football team."

A Saints win would be sweet for multiple reasons.

Saints defense will redeem itself

New Orleans' defense played excellently through its first four games before a dip against Kansas City and then a complete fold last week against Tampa Bay.

"I thought somewhere in the late third quarter, fourth quarter, we got worn down a little bit," Allen said of the Tampa Bay debacle.

Look for the original defense to return and prove that last week was the exception. Denver's lack of a decent offense this season should help.

If the Saints' offense does not give it away as it did at Atlanta and in spots against Kansas City, the Saints' defense should be able to dominate. There are still very good players here with defensive ends Carl Granderson, Chase Young and Cam Jordan, middle linebacker Demario Davis and cornerback Marshon Lattimore. They can play a lot better than last week.

The Spencer Rattler effect

Rookie Spencer Rattler played well early in his NFL debut last week. If he gets more help from his running game, particularly Alvin Kamara, and tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson, he'll have a chance to put enough dents in Denver's defense to win a low-scoring game.

He showed last week that he can evade the rush, gain yards and throw effectively on sprint outs. With receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both out with injuries, Rattler will have to do a lot on his own to pull out a win.

How to watch Saints vs. Broncos live

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 17
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Site: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
• City: New Orleans
• TV: Prime Video
• Radio: WWL-AM 870 in New Orleans and across the South. Sirius: 822

Latest game odds for Saints vs. Broncos in week 7

• Money line: New Orleans +128, Denver -152
• Spread: New Orleans +2.5, Denver -2.5
• Over/Under: 37

Betting trends for Saints vs. Broncos in week 7

• The Broncos are 0-3 against the spread with short rest under coach Sean Payton. The Saints are 1-6 against the spread with short rest under coach Dennis Allen.
• The Saints are 1-2 against the spread at home this season.
• The Saints have covered the spread three times this season.

Saints injury report

• Starting wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee) is out and could miss the rest of the season on injured reserve after having meniscus cartilage surgery on his knee soon, coach Dennis Allen said.

• Starting wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion) is out. Also out are starting right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and starting center Erik McCoy (groin). On defense, starting linebacker Pete Werner is out.

• Starting quarterback Derek Carr (oblique) is doubtful and most likely out. Running back/tight end/Wildcat quarterback Taysom Hill (lung, rib) is doubtful.

• Starting guard and backup center Lucas Patrick (chest) is questionable.

Broncos injury report

• Starting cornerback Pat Surtain II (concussion) is out as is starting offensive tackle Alex Palczewski (ankle).