We’ve officially reached the rubber match portion of the AFC North schedule. The Browns almost feel like a glitch in the matrix within the toughest division in football and their differences with the Steelers couldn’t be more stark.
In the Super Bowl era, the Browns have won 40 percent of their regular season contests, won seven playoff games and endured 18 non-interim head coaches. During that same five-decade span, the Steelers organization has won 60 percent of its games, celebrated 36 playoff wins, six Super Bowls and hired only three coaches.
T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett's battles for Defensive Player of the Year forced Pro Football Focus to alter their double-team stat to account for chip blocks. Those differences extend to their quarterback situations. The Steelers' tortuous two years of musical chairs at QB pales in comparison to Cleveland’s 28 starters since 2000. Russell Wilson’s career revival puts a pin in Pittsburgh’s quarterback carousel since (checks notes) 2022.
Wilson, a diminutive mid-round pick headed for the Hall of Fame who evangelizes with the demeanor of a PBS anchor while the Browns are sizing up former No. 1 pick Jameis Winston after their quarterback with a fully guaranteed $230 million albatross attached to him went down after stinking it up. Winston is a proxy for the Browns in his own right. His recklessness prevents him from living up to his potential and evokes his Lord and Savior to stop throwing pick-sixes. Every man has two wolves within him is the perfect description of the NFL’s lone member of the 30 TD-30 INT club.
Losing to the Browns was a tough pill to swallow. The chasm between Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt never felt wider than it did two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football and the extra serving of snowfall served as a wild card. The forecast for Sunday in Pittsburgh is chilly and sunny. Here are three other forecasts to keep an eye on this Sunday.
Jameis Winston delivers a pair of offerings to the turnover gods
Since assuming the reins of Cleveland's offense in Week 6, Winston's 336 yards per game is the league's highest. Unfortunately, he's also completed the most passes to opposing teams including last week’s pair of pick-sixes, or as The Athletic inexplicably described it, Winston threw for an NFL record 668 combined passing and interception return yards.
As the Steelers attempt to reintegrate Alex Highsmith into a stuffed pass-rushing rotation, Tomlin has expressed plans to get all three onto the field in specific blitz packages. The Steelers triumvirate has a nose for the ball. Between Herbig and Watt, they’ve forced nine fumbles between them. Winston likes to cough those up too. During their first matchup, he fumbled and sailed it over a receiver’s head for an interception.
Najee Harris out gains Nick Chubb
The last time Harris faced the Browns defense, he averaged a meager 2.6 yards per carry and was a non-factor in the outcome. An illustration of how little confidence Tomlin had in his ground game was the Steelers relying more on Justin Fields’ legs than Harris’ when the offense needed short yards out of jumbo formations.
The Steelers winning at the line of scrimmage would help. Harris is tied for 25th in yards before contact among ball carriers with 100 carries, averaging 1.8 yards before contact per tote this season ahead of just one other back. Suffice it to say, it’s a long shot to expect Harris to outgain Nick Chubb on the ground. Against the Bengals blitzes, Wilson took advantage of Harris underneath to the tune of six catches for 54 yards and gained another 75 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Only five teams send blitzes more often than Cleveland.
Two weeks ago in Baltimore, Harris caught five passes for 30 yards. No one will confuse him with the next coming of Marshall Faulk, but the short dump-offs and screens are an extension of the passing game, the offense has resorted to when Harris is getting battered behind the LOS.
Steelers avoid the sweep
The Browns haven’t swept the Steelers since 1988 or beaten them in Pittsburgh in 20 tries. As hard as the Browns scrapped, it took every break, four fourth-down conversions, and one overlooked intentional grounding penalty for them to squeak by the Steelers. Wilson is getting more comfortable, and most importantly the Steelers aren’t playing on the road on Thursday night where Mike Tomlin has lost seven of 9 games.
Losing once against the Browns when they were one game back of Kansas City for the No. 1 seed was disappointing, losing a second would provide new ammo to the Tomlin haters brigade. Considering the Ravens, Chiefs, and Eagles comprise the next three games on Pittsburgh’s schedule, the Steelers need this two-game cushion. They won’t win the division with a loss, but it would go a long way toward them losing a lead over Baltimore that they’ve held since Week 1.