3 CFB programs who won't survive this weekend inside the AP Top 25, and why that is

For at least a little while longer, the AP Top 25 Poll will remain our guiding light in college football. Eventually, we will no longer care about what the Associated Press thinks are the 25 best teams in college football. Give it a few weeks, and we will be all about the College Football Playoff and the Selection Committee that decides the expanded 12-team field. This will be a season like no other.

The good news with us being at roughly the halfway point of the regular season is that we have more than a sufficient sample size to dissect. We have a better idea of who is good, and more importantly, who is bad. Conference play is in full swing, so every game is doubly as important now and going forward. These games are often against rivals, therefore amping up the intensity of them quite a lot.

So what I want to do today is take a look at a few teams that look vulnerable heading into this weekend, ones that if they suffered a loss, it might knock them out of the AP Top 25 entirely. No, the loser of Georgia-Texas and the Third Saturday in October is not falling out of the AP Top 25. It would take a complete and utter collapse at home by Tennessee to Alabama for that to even be possible.

Let's start with everyone's new favorite team in the Big Ten, one who hasn't been tested yet this year.

3. No. 16 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)

This is arguably the biggest game for Indiana football this century. Curt Cignetti has IU unblemished bowl eligible at 6-0 through seven weeks. Right now, the Hoosiers are the fourth most likely team to make the playoff out of the Big Ten this season after the usual suspects of Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. Big Noon Kickoff will be in Bloomington when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to town.

Indiana is a touchdown favorite at home vs. the Cornhuskers. That seems about right. While Indiana is bowl eligible, Nebraska is one win away from getting there for the first time since Barack Obama's second term in office. Their only loss was an overtime thriller at home in Lincoln to another quality Big Ten team in the Illinois Fighting Illini on a Friday night. There is a chance that Indiana could play tight.

While I am not going to say I have full faith in Nebraska to get Indiana, these are the type of games Indiana tends to lose. Just when we start to think they are legit, they Pitt like Pitt, but on a far less painful of a scale. WIndiana becomes Indiana again, basically. This is probably the biggest game in the Big Ten this week, so be prepared for the unexpected. I like Nebraska, but this one can go either way.

Indiana could conceivably fall from No. 16 to outside the AP Top 25 with a humiliating home loss.

2. No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)

I had this game circled all offseason long for the Kansas State Wildcats. After getting pantsed by the BYU Cougars a few weeks back, K-State went from being everyone's favorite to win the Big 12 to merely a fringe contender to get to Arlington. Losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU is brutal, but it would have been even worse if they lost on the road to traditional rival Colorado last weekend.

While Kansas State did hold on vs. a depleted Buffaloes team, they have to travel halfway across the country to play West Virginia in Morgantown. Although WVU does not look like a serious threat to get to Arlington this season, they did give Big 12 favorite Iowa State a run for their money for the better part of the game. The levees eventually broke, as Carson Hansen ran train all over the Mountaineers.

Avery Johnson may have gotten a somewhat impressive road victory over Colorado last week, but I expect for Neal Brown's team to play with its hair on fire. A home win over K-State would do wonders for taking some of the growing pressure of him. Milan Puskar Stadium is the type of venue where underclassmen quarterbacks get devoured whole. I am going with the Mountaineers in the upset.

A second loss in Big 12 play would certainly knock Kansas State out of the AP Top 25 from No. 17.

1. No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (4-2) or No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1)

While I would not call this a fraud bowl, as one of the teams playing in it might be legit, but is a guarantee that either two-loss Michigan or one-loss Illinois is going down this weekend. The Wolverines' two losses are to Texas in the non-conference, as well as one to last year's national runner-up in Washington in Big Ten play. Illinois' only blemish was a multi-score defeat to Penn State.

At No. 22, Illinois feels properly ranked, but could climb up a spot or two by beating a team that had no business being ranked this past week in Michigan. While it is cool to see service academies Army and Navy undefeated and ranked inside the top 25, Michigan is occupying a space that Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Arizona State, Washington State, Texas Tech, Syracuse and Arkansas all deserve more.

As it is with the two other games mentioned above, this one in Champaign-Urbana could go either way. Since Luke Altmyer can actually throw a football quite well, I am going with Bret Bielema's team getting to bowl eligibility at home on Saturday evening. As for Sherrone Moore's Michigan program, we have to start wondering is he will creep into Zach Arnett territory like DeShaun Foster is right now.

No matter what happens, the loser of this game will have no business being ranked moving forward.