3 first-round NFL Draft picks that look like mistakes and who teams should’ve drafted

Projecting which NFL Draft prospects will succeed at the pro level can be a crapshoot. There are so many factors that go into whether a player pans out. From landing spot to work ethic and finding a coaching staff to maximize your talents, virtually everything must fall into place.

That said, every team has a different draft evaluation strategy. Several take the "best player available" approach, while others pick based on fit/need. However, often, talent wins out. Some athletes are simply too big and too good to fail.

After finally having a sample size (albeit a small one) to work with, we can begin to assess the 2024 draft class, particularly the first-round picks. Through half of their first season in the NFL, these three front offices probably wish to redo their Day 1 selections.

3. Ravens dropped the ball by choosing CB Nate Wiggins over WR Ricky Pearsall

Size and durability were concerns for Baltimore Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins heading into the draft. Unfortunately, those worries have rung true thus far for the ex-Clemson standout.

While Wiggins emphasized gaining weight this offseason and did it, availability has already been an issue. First, he suffered a shoulder injury during the preseason. Then, a neck issue sidelined him in Week 2. Most recently, the 21-year-old was ruled out for Baltimore's latest game against the Cleveland Browns, though it was because of illness. Nonetheless, the official team injury report included the shoulder malady, too.

Even when he's on the field, Wiggins has gotten overshadowed by the other members of the stacked Ravens secondary. Between one-time All-Pros Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey, plus reliable veteran Marcus Williams, Baltimore has a remarkable stead of versatile defensive backs. Spending a first-rounder on a corner felt like a luxury they could've passed on, especially knowing they passed up on wide receiver Ricky Pearsall.

Pearsall was taken by the San Francisco 49ers the following pick. Yes, he's dealt with health issues of his own, those were unpredictable and unfortunate circumstances. Regardless, the former Florida Gator fills an immediate pressing need for the Ravens: Giving quarterback Lamar Jackson another skilled pass-catcher.

Despite only appearing in two games thus far, Pearsall has demonstrated he can get open in various spots. The Niners wideout can beat you in every area of the field, thanks to his ability to create separation with his route-running. Opposite Ravens speedster Zay Flowers, who primarily gets used as a short-to-intermediate option, their skill sets would pair nicely.

2. Falcons could've had Jared Verse instead of spending a top-10 pick on backup QB Michael Penix Jr.

Given that Kirk Cousins is 36 and coming off a torn Achilles, it's fair that the Atlanta Falcons prioritized finding his eventual successor. Conversely, they gave the veteran signal-caller a four-year contract this past offseason, including $100 million in guaranteed money. Roughly one month later, the franchise spent a top-10 draft pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Choosing Penix blindsided everyone, even Cousins. Bizarrely, they nearly immediately hedged their bet on the latter by bringing in the former. Presumably, the Falcons hope the rookie gunslinger doesn't see the field soon. If so, that could only mean one of two things:

1. Cousins gets hurt
2. Cousins plays poorly enough to merit getting benched

Neither is an appetizing outcome if you're the Falcons (unless Penix steps in and sets the league on fire). Meanwhile, Atlanta passed up on the opportunity to solidify their pass-rushing unit with Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jared Verse.

Verse has been incredible for the Los Angeles Rams this season. He's been one of Pro Football Focus' highest-graded edge rushers thus far (82.8 overall player grade). Moreover, his 21 pressures rank sixth in the NFL, highlighting how disruptive the Florida State alum has been.

1. Bears chose the wrong first-round WR by selecting Rome Odunze over Brian Thomas Jr.

During the scouting process, Brian Thomas Jr. felt like a distant fourth compared to the consensus top-three wide receivers of this year's draft class. Instead, he should've been grouped into that upper echelon of pass-catchers, which the Chicago Bears are learning the hard way.

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers' positions as No. 1 and 2 receivers off the board were solidified. Meanwhile, many put Rome Odunze in that discussion, though hardly ever mentioning Thomas. But the Bears had a chance to take the now-Jacksonville Jaguar, and the decision not to is conceivably haunting them.

Odunze hasn't done anything to show he can't be a future alpha receiver -- it's more about what Thomas has done. The latter grabbed the bull by the horns, seemingly proving he could be a force and primary target from Day 1. While the Bears don't lack offensive weapons, they cost themselves an opportunity to sharpen their toolkit.

Amid organizational disarray on an inept Jaguars offense, Thomas has been outstanding. He's caught 33 passes for 573 yards and four touchdowns, constantly making explosive plays. Chicago would've benefitted from his playmaking juice.