Mock draft season sure does last a long time, doesn't it? The amount that seems to change from the moment the season ends, through the combine, through pro days and free agency, is truly mind-boggling stuff. Aren't these the same players they were last fall?
The mock draft industrial complex has become one of the most reliable sources of content in sports, and for good reason. Football fans spend all year season obsessing over the players that are already on their favorite team, but mock draft season is a time to fantasize about the possibilities of any and every tantalizing prospect entering the league joining your team and doing incredible things. It's the equivalent of a woman that's been married for a couple of decades reading a romance novel with a beefcake on the cover after her husband goes up to bed.
NFL fans engage in a similar sort of objectification this time of year, as they watch tape and pick through 40 times and broad jump numbers. "Why yes, you do look good. How'd you like to join my team?" we ask as we bat our eyelashes at the latest and greatest prospects.
Every team's fans look forward to the draft (OK, maybe not Jets fans), but few are as excited this year as fans of the Chicago Bears. It may not compare to last year when the Bears had the No. 1 overall pick. Still though, with Ben Johnson in town as the most exciting head coach since Mike Ditka, we've talked ourselves into this finally being the turning point that we wrongly assumed was last year, and the year before that.
As any team is when they don't pick first, the Bears are at the mercy of what the teams before them do. There are many possibilities out there that Bears fans would love to have, and they've been discussed and written about in great length, such as Ashton Jeanty, Will Campbell and Armand Membou, to name a few.
There's a very real possibility that all three of those players could be gone by time the Bears are on the clock, which would leave general manager Ryan Poles in a bit of a quagmire. Does he stay put and take the player he feels is the best available? Does he trade back and pick up extra draft compensation, either this year or in the future? Or does he get ahead of this possibility and trade up beforehand to get the guy he wants?
The Bears are not operating like they used to, which means that everything is within the realm of possibility here. The team splurged on its head coach and went all-in on fixing the offensive line with two trades and a huge free agent signing. So would we be surprised at anything Poles does on draft night? Not really, no.
The draft is such a speculative science that one can never truly know how a prospect will pan out, but that doesn't stop us from taking our best guesses anyway. Today we're looking not at players that the Bears SHOULD draft. That's been done to death. No, today we're talking about three players that the Bears should steer clear of, though with all three thought to be the best player at their respective positions, it might not be obvious why. These are players that are very much in play for Poles to select (we won't waste your time explaining why Shedeur Sanders would be a bad choice), but for various reasons, he should go in another direction.
The Bears should not sell the farm to trade up for Abdul Carter
Just in the last day, I've seen two different mock drafts that predicted that the Bears would trade up and take Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. Did I not get the memo? Carter is a scintillating prospect, and by all accounts will be taken by the fourth pick, at worst.
There's zero chance that Carter, with his high level of collegiate production and impressive physical tools, falls to 10. Trading up to at least four for him will cost at least an arm and a leg, and maybe more. As much as the Bears would love to improve their pass rush, we don't need Ben Johnson's first born being sent to Cleveland.
Pro Football Focus projects that the Bears will trade up to No. 2 and give the Browns the 10th pick, the 39th (2nd round), 148th (4th round), and their 2026 first-rounder. That's a steep price to pay, especially for a guy that didn't work out at the combine or at Penn State's pro day because he's still dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered in the College Football Playoff.
Reports indicate that teams aren't worried about the long-term nature of Carter's injury, but that's easier to say when you don't have to give up a haul to get him. Carter may well end up being the next Myles Garrett or TJ Watt, but if the Bears do this and he's not, it would erase a lot of the great progress they've already made this offseason.
CBS Sports says that the Bears will trade up with the Patriots at No. 4 to get Carter, giving up the 10th, the 41st and next year's third-rounder. That's a much easier pill to swallow, and I suspect most Bears fans would jump at that deal, myself included. The only problem is I don't see why New England would let that pick go for so cheap. Even if the Bears did offer that, other teams would certainly outbid them.
All of this is to say, don't go pre-ordering an Abdul Carter jersey, Bears fans. This one won't, and shouldn't, happen.
Will Johnson is the top-rated cornerback, but he doesn't make sense for the Bears
Imagine someone driving down a lonely road in a delapidated bus. Most of the passengers are either asleep, drunk or both. On the side, the words "Tyrique Stevenson bandwagon" are spray-painted on in crooked letters. A steely resolution in my eyes, I press the pedal to the floor, urging the run-down vehicle onward. I am the driver.
Most Bears fans are out on Tyrique Stevenson after last year, and honestly, I can't say that I blame them. His selfish play that allowed the Washington Commanders to complete a 52-yard, game-winning Hail Mary (which was later named the Moment of the Year at the NFL Awards banquet) was the angriest Bears fans have felt since Chris Conte got beaten by Randall Cobb for a 4th down touchdown to effectively end the Bears' division hopes and their season in 2013. Just for the record, I'm categorizing the Double Doink under "shock" and "sadness" instead of "anger." Sorry to bring that up.
I'm not saying that Stevenson deserves a reprieve, but if there's anything that can get a player's attention, it's playing for a new coach who has plenty of ammunition on tape about your past screw-ups. Stevenson is a talented player who won NFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 1 last season for his game-winning pick-six against Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis which completed a 17-point comeback and got the Bears to 1-0. He also won it in Week 17 as a rookie the year before in a performance so good it made the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins.
Times were simpler then, and a lot has changed organizationally, but I suspect when Johnson watches the tape, he'll see that Stevenson still has a lot to offer as the team's second cornerback opposite Jaylon Johnson, who was locked up to a contract extension just over a year ago.
Poles has also said that he's prioritizing getting do-everything slot corner Kyler Gordon re-signed, which means if the Bears select Will Johnson, they're effectively calling it quits on Stevenson. I think he deserves another chance to show what he can do under a coach that will demand more than Matt Eberflus did.
The Bears lacked accountability under Eberflus' leadership, but that doesn't look like it'll be a problem under Johnson. The respect he commands, plus moves like signing veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, tell me the Bears are serious about setting expectations high in the locker room.
Stevenson deserves another shot, and I think he'll deliver. I'll keep the doors to the bus open if anyone else wants to go for a ride.
Tyler Warren looks like he'll be a very good player, but the Bears don't have room to let him shine
Talk of the Bears drafting Tyler Warren at No. 10 has picked up in recent weeks, for a few reasons. Warren has risen up draft boards as the best tight end in this year's class for his versatility as a player. He's an excellent receiver, a willing blocker, and he even had some success last year by taking some Wildcat snaps in short-yardage situations.
Warren was also a high school quarterback, and we know how Ben Johnson likes to get creative with his play-calling. He also made great use of Sam LaPorta during his time in Detroit, so there's no doubt that he could get the most out of Warren.
There's just one problem, and his name is Cole Kmet. Now entering his sixth year in the league, the Notre Dame product was unbelievably underutilized last year. The offense was a mess in general, with Shane Waldron giving way to Thomas Brown, then Brown continuing to call plays after Matt Eberflus was fired and he took over as interim had coach. The offensive line couldn't block anyone, so Kmet also had to stay in and help, further limiting his effectiveness as a receiver.
Just one year before, Kmet caught a career-high 73 balls, and he looked good doing it. He's big, with good speed, an abilty to break tackles, and the whole route tree at his disposal. He also has three years and $30 million remaining on his contract. The Bears could get out of that deal with minimal damage next year, but that would be a mistake, because Kmet still has a lot to offer, and I expect him to thrive in Johnson's offense.
For one thing, the offensive line has been completely revamped, so Kmet shouldn't have to stay in and block nearly as much now. For another, Johnson knows how to scheme guys open, and he'll love Kmet's sure hands.
There's nothing preventing the Bears from running a 2TE offense like the Patriots used to do with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but they're not going to do that when they have DJ Moore and Rome Odunze getting open every play. Olamide Zaccheaus and Devin Duvernay were also signed in free agency, and both players are going to get their share of looks in the passing game, too.
Warren may very well be the shiniest thing on the showroom floor when it's the Bears' turn to draft, but I just don't see how they'll take him out of the garage enough to make his selection worth it.
What should the Bears do if Jeanty, Campbell and Membou are gone by time they pick? There should be any number of guys available that can get to the quarterback, from Georgia's Mykel Williams, to Texas A&M's Shemar Stewart, to Marshall's Mike Green. Any of those would make sense, and trading back would also be a sensible, if unsexy, move.