3 free agents the New York Mets should sign, 2 to avoid

In the waning days of 2020, Steve Cohen descended from the lofty perch of Point72 Asset Management and into the owner’s box at Citi Field looking to save Mets’ fans from the doldrum mediocrity of their favorite baseball team. As a hedge fund manager, the new owner came with an insurmountable sum of money and the ever-ambitious goal of taking a downtrodden Mets team to the World Series in 3-5 years. But as of the start of the 2024 season, the Mets had only made it to a Wild Card round after a 101-win season.

After the start of 2024, it looked like another losing season out of the Wilpon years. Then something remarkable happened. On June 12th, a loveable face donned a Mets cap, stepped out from his McDonald’s abode, and made his way onto the mound before the Mets game began. Not unlike the moon landing, that first step on the mound was something historic; Mets’ fans just didn’t know it yet.

In a birthday appearance that unfortunately lacked purple milkshakes, the Grimace reared back and threw the first pitch. There was no immediate celebration, it was just an average first pitch like most others, but what followed was the greatest Mets’ underdog story since the Miracle Mets toppled the Orioles in the 1969 World Series.

From then on, losses became scarce as the wins piled up. But this wouldn’t last. In Game 6 of the NLCS, the Dodgers clamped the lid on the Mets’ World Series hopes, extinguishing the purple effervescent glow of Grimace magic that hung heavy over Queens. Having come so close, Cohen has his sights set on 2025 looking to finish the job, and he’s willing to blow the vault doors wide open in pursuit of a championship. But what free agents can bring the Mets a trophy and which ones should they steer clear of?

To start, targets such as Juan Soto and Pete Alonso make perfect sense and already on Cohen’s radar or being courted by him. So, let’s give some less obvious choices a well-deserved look.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.

The New York Mets should sign…

3. Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez represents a golden opportunity to acquire a reliable slugging outfielder. In 2024, the reigning World Series champ slashed .272/.339/.501/.840 with a career high 33 home runs landing himself a third Silver Slugger award. Let’s take another quick glance at his 2024 season: career high home run total, Silver Slugger, Home Run Derby champ, and World Series champ. By all appearances, Hernandez is coming off a dream season.

Since 2021, Hernandez has been a key source of RBIs for three different teams. His presence in the middle of the order was essential to pushing the 2022 Blue Jays and the 2024 Dodgers into the postseason. But Hernandez’s one year Dodgers’ tenure was more notable as he proved to be a pivotal piece of their lineup when several key players were injured and absent.

But his regular season heroics aren’t the end of his accolades. In 75 postseason at-bats, Hernandez hit five home runs and maintains an on-base percentage of .341. With his reputation, Hernadez should have the attention of every competitive team looking for a serious, middle-of-the-order bat that can hit for both power and average.

2. Walker Buehler

One key issue the Mets dealt with in 2024 was pitching. As a team, the Mets posted a 3.96 ERA, ranked 15th in the MLB. Notably, Kodai Senga was injured for all but one game. The Mets will be in better shape when he returns, but their starting rotation will need an overhaul. One arm Cohen should be looking at could return to ace form at a low cost.

When he first started his career, Walker Buehler was a young dynamo ready to take the MLB by storm. Fast forward to today; Buehler has only pitched 140.1 innings since the beginning of 2022. Constant injuries have kept him from his spot on the mound, missing all of 2023. And to find a year when he pitched well, we need to go back to his last full year in 2021 when he pitched to a career-best 2.47 ERA. Over his last 140.1 innings dating back to 2022, Buehler posted a 4.75 ERA. So why should anyone want a frequently injured pitcher who hasn’t performed well in the past three years? One reason, and it’s a big one.

Buehler, is one of the best postseason arms in recent history. Over a whopping 94.2 postseason innings, Buehler maintains a 3.04 ERA with 119 strike outs. In the 2024 postseason, Buehler threw the worst postseason start of his career giving up six runs in five innings to the Padres during the NLDS. He recouped by blanking the Mets through four and the Yankees through five, then closing the World Series out in one clean inning, a streak of 13 scoreless innings (including three innings after his second inning meltdown against the Padres). His World Series ERA sits at 0.47 through 19 innings.

Since his injuries have hampered his career, he will likely be inexpensive lowering his potential risks and giving Cohen some padding in his pursuit of top-tier stars like Soto and Alonso. If Buehler can stay healthy, he will likely provide his new club the most bang for their buck.

1. Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes is undisputedly the top ace on the market this offseason. As it so happens, the Mets are rumored by several outlets to be a top landing spot for him. With Cohen’s lack of financial restraint, there is a chance the Mets could land multiple superstars this offseason and Burnes could be one of them.

Burnes is coming off another stellar season throwing to a 2.92 ERA through 194.1 innings for the Baltimore Orioles. His 8.38 strikeouts per nine rate is the lowest in his 7-year career, but this doesn’t appear to have hindered his effectiveness. As a full-time starter, Burnes has only finished one season with an ERA above 3.00, that being the 3.39 he threw in 2023.

Burnes’ talent was on full display in 2021, when he won the NL Cy Young with a 2.43 ERA, also winning his only ERA title. The following season, he led the NL in strike outs. Since becoming a primary starter, Burnes has been in the Cy Young race every season only winning it the once.

As one of the best hurlers in the game, Burnes is set for nice payday. But with the deepest pockets of any MLB owner and the spend-heavy cash-burning attitude, we can expect Cohen will keep the Mets in the mix.

The New York Mets should avoid...

2. Max Fried

Max Fried is coming off another quality season with the Braves. In 174.1 innings, the star southpaw posted a respectable 3.25 ERA with 166 strikeouts. He missed nearly a month with a forearm injury midway through the season. Since 2020, Fried has thrown to ERAs in the 2.00s and low 3.00s. Adding to his list of accomplishments are his three Gold Gloves in three consecutive years from 2020-2022. He won a Silver Slugger in 2021, however, that achievement is not a factor on his impressive resume. But with a long list of accolades to his name, why should the Mets avoid him?

For one, Max Fried has not pitched a single season since 2018 without suffering at least one injury (Fried debuted in 2017 throwing 26 innings). In 2023, injuries kept him to 77.2 innings. But his injuries aren’t that concerning. Unlike Walker Buehler, they’ve rarely prevented him from throwing a qualifiable number of innings. So, why is Buehler a better bet?

Firstly, Buehler will come cheaper since Fried had a great year and Buehler missed most of it. But the second reason draws a more stark contrast between their reputations. Max Fried maintains a 5.10 postseason ERA over 67 innings. His last postseason start helped this figure grow. Fried gave up five runs in just two innings. To his defense, he got very unlucky on soft hit balls. But even a good start wouldn’t have made up for the numerous times he was blown up in the postseason. To his credit, Fried has thrown some postseason gems including both six and seven inning shutouts. However, the number of instances where he was trounced vastly outweighs his gems.

Make no mistake, Fried is a great pitcher. But for the money, he may not be worth it. If the Mets make it to the postseason and are quickly booted for their unreliable pitching, all the investments Cohen makes (in terms of baseball) will be for nothing. There are more reliable options than Fried on the market.

1. Luis Severino

Among the Mets free agents this offseason is a former star hurler. Seemingly a flash in the pan during his early Yankees’ years, Luis Severino has had trouble staying healthy and pitching well. From 2019 to 2023, Sevy had only logged 209.1 innings. Most of his absences were due to injury, but in 2023, the Yankees had enough after Severino posted a staggering 6.65 ERA. However, he gave a comeback performance in his first season with the Mets. Severino pitched to a 3.91 ERA with 161 strike outs over 182 innings. But there are still concerns.

Even if this was his best year in recent memory, his 3.91 ERA was nothing to write home about. He still flashes elite stuff, but he is yet to recover his performance as a young Yankee when he posted ERAs of 2.98 and 3.39 in consecutive years. The potential is still there, but the results don’t show it. In the 2024 postseason, Sevy posted an admirable 3.24 ERA. This includes two games with near identical performances where he pitched six innings giving up three earned runs each. Sevy would bounce back pitching 4.2 innings with no earned runs against the Dodgers. The Mets allowed three unearned runs on his watch. This past postseason lowered Sevy’s career postseason ERA to 4.62 over 60.1 total innings.

This offseason, the Mets offered Severino a qualifying offer which he refused. This might have been a devastating move since 2024’s performance still left a lot to be desired. Truth be told, Severino is still a question mark. We don’t know what to expect from him. He may still be an exceptional pitcher, but with the Mets looking to contend and sitting on an endless pile of cash, Luis Severino is not the risk they should be taking.