After more than a week without game action for the NBA All-Star break, the Atlanta Hawks returned to practice on Wednesday and will take the floor for a game on Thursday evening. The Hawks welcome the Orlando Magic to State Farm Arena in the second of four scheduled matchups between the teams this season. Atlanta won the first game against Orlando less than two weeks ago, prevailing by a 112-106 margin on the road, and the Hawks will look to build on a run of four wins in six games before the break.
In this space, we'll take a glance at three things the Hawks need to do in order to begin the second "half" of the campaign on a high note against the Magic.
Force the Magic to make perimeter shots
Orlando is, generally speaking, a very poor offensive team by the numbers. Even with a pair of true standouts in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic rank near the bottom of the league in overall efficiency, and the single biggest reason for those struggles is a lack of perimeter shooting. Orlando is shooting only 30.6 percent from 3-point range, the worst mark in the NBA, and that contributes to the second-worst field goal percentage (43.9 percent) in the sport. The Magic also have the NBA's worst effective field goal percentage (50.4 percent).
In addition to the three-point woes, Orlando takes 8.8 percent of its shots from long 2-point range, per Cleaning the Glass. The Magic shoot only 40 percent on those attempts, a strongly below-average figure, and Banchero makes less than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts outside of 10 feet and only 30.3 percent from 3-point range. In fact, no player in Orlando's projected rotation for Thursday's game is shooting better than 33.8 percent from 3-point distance this season, which illustrates the team's general lack of spacing.
The first meeting between Atlanta and Orlando saw the Magic make 40 percent of its 3-pointers, even in a loss. If the Hawks can chop that number down to a figure closer to Orlando's season-long average, it would be beneficial and provide a clear pathway to overall success.
Take care of the ball
While the Magic are struggling badly on offense, Orlando has a truly elite statistical profile on the defensive end of the floor. The Magic have many strengths defensively, but one prominent one is havoc creation. Orlando creates a turnover on more than 17 percent of defensive possessions, the second-best turnover creation rate in the NBA this season. The Magic also create 9.4 steals per 100 possessions, and Orlando averages nearly 19 points per game off turnovers, with both figures ranking in the top ten of the league.
Atlanta's offensive ball security has not been pristine this season, particularly when Trae Young is off the court. The Hawks rank No. 20 in the NBA in turnover rate overall, and that figure drops into the bottom five when Young sits, as Atlanta commits a turnover on nearly 16 percent of possessions with its second unit.
If the Hawks can maintain a relatively neutral figure in the possession game, Atlanta would have an overall advantage. The Magic rely heavily on extra possessions, prompted by edges in the turnover and rebounding battles, to offset their shooting struggles, but Atlanta is more than capable of winning on the margins as well.
Keep Orlando off the free throw line
The Magic are only No. 29 in the NBA in pace this season, which contributes to some of the team's modest counting stats. Orlando is still No. 8 in the league in free throw attempts, averaging 23.0 per game, but the Magic are even better than that when it comes to earning trips to the line. In fact, the Magic are No. 2 in the NBA in free throw attempt rate (0.268), trailing only the Los Angeles Lakers, and Orlando relies on free throws to boost its overall shooting efficiency.
As noted above, the Magic really struggle from the perimeter, and some of those shooting woes manifest at the line. Orlando is a below-average team in free throw accuracy but, even with the Magic making only 76 percent of their attempts, that translates to more than 1.5 points per possession for every two-shot foul. In the first meeting, the Hawks held the Magic to only 24 free throw attempts while taking 28 of their own. That formula was beneficial, and if could promise Quin Snyder that Orlando would have only 24 attempts in the rematch, Atlanta's head coach would likely take that offer.