The NCAA Tournament is finally here, which means that 68 teams are still alive to cut down the nets and become national champions. For 60 of them, it will take four straight wins to get to San Antonio for the Final Four, and another two to win the whole thing. For the remaining eight, it will take one extra.
North Carolina, shockingly, is one of those eight. That shock goes both ways — the Tar Heels have never played in Dayton as part of the First Four before, but for many college basketball fans around the country, it's a shock that Carolina is dancing at all.
This has not been a banner season for the Tar Heels. Ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP poll, the Heels were fresh off a Sweet 16 appearance and a No. 1 seed, and though they lost some key pieceslike Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, they still seemed primed to contend thanks to another year of RJ Davis and two five-star freshmen in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell.
That hasn't exactly happened, as Carolina has struggled all year to beat good teams. That's all in the past now though, because even if their invite to the Big Dance was written on a napkin, it was still enough to get them in the door.
The Heels take on San Diego State on Tuesday for the right to play 6-seed Ole Miss on Thursday. The ACC has been violently usurped by the SEC as the premier conference in college basketball, but Hubert Davis can worry about Chris Beard and his team if and when that time comes. For now, the Aztecs await, and if there's one thing you can always expect from the 2023 national runner-up, it's that they're going to play a tough, physical game and fight for every inch.
Carolina is going to have to bring their A game to win, but what specifically must they do to survive and advance? Let's get into it.
Key No. 1: Get open looks from the 3-point line
Unsurprisingly, San Diego State once again has a top defense. The Aztecs are ranked 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, so Carolina will have to earn every point.
The Aztecs lead the nation in blocked shots thanks in large part to 7-foot sophomore Magoon Gwath. He plays much the same role as Khaman Maluach of Duke, whom the Heels have now seen three times this year, so at least his size shouldn't shock them. Gwath is one of the nation's best rim protectors, and an efficient scorer when he catches the ball deep in the paint. He's also a threat to launch a 3-pointer every once in a while. Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington are going to have their hands full.
Opponents shoot only 45 percent from 2 and just 30.4 percent from 3 against San Diego State, so what should the offensive gameplan be? We've seen recently that the Heels have gotten themselves into trouble by driving recklessly into the lane without a plan. Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble and Ian Jackson have all been guilty of this, and all three have repeatedly had their shots blocked or turned the ball over after dribbling into traffic.
That doesn't have a chance of working against Gwath and the Aztecs. San Diego State defends the 3-point line extremely well, but Carolina is going to have to make some outside shots if they hope to win. That's a much better option than challenging Gwath down low.
For much of the year, UNC has not been a great outside shooting team, but that's changed in the last month. Carolina went cold against Duke with just a 3-of-17 performance from deep, but in the nine games before that, they made over 44 percent of their looks beyond the arc.
Carolina has the tendency to stand around and hope RJ Davis saves them on offense, but everyone is going to have to contribute if this is to work.
Key No. 2: Speed the Aztecs up
The other way to score is to make the Aztecs run. Brian Dutcher's team plays at a slow, grind-it-out pace. They're not looking to get into a track meet, but Carolina has to do what it can to get transition opportunities. That means rebounding better than they have this year and pushing the ball up the court.
Elliot Cadeau is key here, but to run the break he needs to be on the court. That means no more bad fouls, which has been a serious problem in his two years in Chapel Hill. Cadeau got into early foul trouble against Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals, and was sitting on the bench as the Blue Devils blew the game open late in the first half. When he came back after halftime, Carolina made a furious comeback.
This seems bound to be a close game one way or the other. Carolina is unlikely to blow past the Aztecs, but if they can get 10 or 12 fast break points, that could be enough to turn a loss into a win.
Key No. 3: Don't fall behind early
For the first half of the season, the Heels had a troubling habit of digging themselves a giant early hole. Almost without fail, they fought back, but it was always a case of being too little, too late.
It seemed like the Heels had grown out of their predilection for early double-digit deficits, but the problem reared its ugly head again in the ACC Tournament against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke team.
San Diego State is no Duke, but they do know how to punish mistakes. Much like those vintage Tony Bennett Virginia teams, even a small deficit against San Diego State feels like a large one due to their ability to slow the game down and defend at such a high level.
This has a snowball effect, as it forces their opponents to become more desperate in their shot selection. Before you know it, an eight-point game balloons to 18 and it's all but over.
Carolina needs to get an early lead, and if they don't, they need to keep their head. This team has been plagued by mental mistakes all year, which made Jae'Lyn Withers' lane violation at the end of the loss to Duke the perfect microcosm for the season.
For whatever reason, Carolina has been given a second chance to atone for these mistakes. They need to make the most of it.