3 must-win games for UNC in the second half of the season

This season has been a rocky journey for the North Carolina Tar Heels. Hubert Davis' team, now in its fourth year under his watch as head coach, has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Unlike most years though, UNC has fallen short again and again versus top teams, leading to a very un-Tar-Heel-like 11-6 record.

Carolina has made a costly habit of falling behind by double digits in the first halves of games against quality opponents. That happened against Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama and Florida, all of whom are currently ranked in the top 12 in the country. The Heels fought back in most of those games, but ultimately fell short each time.

Lately, the Tar Heels have put their first-half woes behind them, which has resulted in five wins in six games. Is that a sign that the team is improving though, or more a reflection of playing lesser competition? Carolina has gotten out by the skin of their teeth in tight road wins over Notre Dame and NC State, and even what looked like a quality win against UCLA just before Christmas has been dimmed as the Bruins have proceeded to drop their next four of five to fall out of the top 25.

Carolina is now 4-1 in the ACC heading into Wednesday's game against Cal. Joe Lunardi has UNC as a 10-seed in his latest Bracketology, but given the sorry state of the ACC, the Heels can't afford to falter down the stretch, because outside of two games against Duke, opportunities for quality wins will be hard to come by.

Obviously the Tar Heels need to take care of business against the likes of Boston College and Miami to avoid putting any bad losses on their resume. Here though are three games that the Heels need to win if they hope to clinch a tournament berth and improve their seeding.

1. Home versus Pitt on Feb. 8

The Panthers have given the Heels everything they can handle since Jeff Capel took over in 2017. The former Blue Devil, who made one of the most famous shots in UNC-Duke rivalry history when he drained a running, buzzer-beating three to send the game to double overtime in 1995, has a 5-4 record against the Heels as Pitt's head coach, a mark which includes three straight wins in Chapel Hill.

Pitt is 12-4 on the season and 3-2 in the ACC, and they're healthier now than they have been in a while thanks to the recent return of sharpshooter Damien Dunn. Recent losses by the Panthers to Duke and Louisville shouldn't cause the Heels to let their guard down.

If you like point guard play, this is the game for you, as it features a tantalizing matchup between Jaland Lowe and Elliot Cadeau, a pair of sophomores that are currently second and third in the ACC in assists. This is a game that will be decided by each team's backcourt, as Lowe is complemented by Dunn and Ishmael Leggett, while Cadeau has reigning ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis and Seth Trimble to help him out.

2. At Clemson on Feb. 10

There's nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee loves more than a quality road win, and the Heels will have a golden opportunity to get one when they visit Clemson two days after hosting Pitt. The Panthers are always extremely physical, but Carolina will need to bounce back quickly if they hope to come out of Littlejohn Coliseum with a win.

For years, Clemson was an afterthought in the ACC, but Brad Brownell has built the Tigers into a program to be reckoned with. NC State stole the show by making a shocking run to the Final Four last year, but Clemson also did the conference proud by reaching the Elite Eight. This year, they've picked up where they left off, even though they lost star center PJ Hall to the NBA.

Ian Schieffelin has done a great job of filling Hall's shoes in the frontcourt, and he'll be a problem for Carolina's centers, who have frequently looked lost now that Armando Bacot is gone after six years on campus. The Heels haven't been able to keep opposing teams off the glass, but there's a glimmer of hope after Jalen Washington brought down a career-high 12 rebounds and had the go-ahead basket and a game-saving block in the final seconds against NC State last week.

Clemson has only one loss at home, and each of their six ACC wins has been by at least 10 points. This would be a signature win if the Heels could pull it off.

3. At Florida State on Feb. 24

Tallahassee has traditionally been a house of horrors for UNC, as even some great Carolina teams have been unable to escape with a win. The Tar Heels are just 2-3 in their last five trips, though they have won two in a row as the Seminoles have endured a rough patch the last two years.

It won't be quite so easy this time around, as the Noles seem to be back on track. FSU has gotten back to the physical defensive identity that has been the signature of the Leonard Hamilton era, and they wear teams down with 10 players that average more than 10 minutes per game.

Carolina will have four days of rest after this game before they take on lowly Miami at home, so there should be no excuse not to come out focused and ready to play. In fact, only a date with the Hurricanes and a road matchup with Virginia Tech stand between this game and the regular season finale against Duke, so winning here could allow the Heels to take on the hated Blue Devils with a lot of confidence and a solid win streak in place.

Freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell have been two of the most important players for UNC, but road games are always tough for freshmen. Standout games from their young stars in this hostile environment could portend a postseason run.