3 Padres free agents who won’t be back and why after NLDS defeat

The San Diego Padres' explosive offense was held scoreless across the final 24 innings of their NLDS matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most questioned LA's ability to get deep into October due to various injuries on the pitching staff, but the Dodgers' bullpen was electric in back-to-back, win-or-go-home games.

As Shohei Ohtani and company parade to the NLCS to battle the New York Mets for a spot in the World Series, San Diego goes back to the drawing board after what can only be described as a successful campaign. Even after letting Blake Snell walk and hitting the reset button with the Juan Soto trade, the Padres managed to go on a tear after the All-Star break. A.J. Preller continues to rank as one of the best general managers in baseball, finding unique avenues to high-level talent and spending in creative ways, even if he doesn't have clearance to hand Soto $600 million.

The Padres were arguably the scariest team left in the NL playoffs, but a poorly-timed cold spell has them going home early. This felt like it may have been San Diego's year, but there's no reason to believe the Padres are going anywhere. This team should be right back on the October stage in 2025. Baseball is as unpredictable as any major American sport, but this Padres team is rock-solid, top to bottom.

That said, San Diego's roster is bound to look a bit different next season. Preller has several impact free agents to juggle and there's simply no way the Friars can keep them all. Here are a few who are destined for new teams.

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3 Padres free agents who won’t be back and why after blowing NLDS lead

3. Ha-seong Kim is going to get overpaid somewhere else

Ha-seong Kim missed the last couple months with a shoulder injury and was nowhere to be seen in the Padres' five-game defeat at the hands of LA. Now he enters free agency, assuming both sides don't agree to a paltry $7 million mutual option. This was not Kim's best season at the plate, but he remains valuable at a high-leverage position. Teams will line up to sign such a productive shortstop.

In 2023, Kim finished 14th in NL MVP voting and was an essential cog in the Padres' success. His offensive numbers cratered in 403 ABs this season — .233/.330/.370 with 11 home runs — but he's due for a bounce back. His value also goes way beyond hitting, too. Kim is a dangerous base-runner and one heck of a glove in the middle infield.

It's not difficult to find contenders in need of upgrades at shortstop. The Braves, Yankees, Tigers — hell, even the Phillies could use middle infield help. And those are just the postseason teams. San Diego would surely love to bring Kim back, but with Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth providing more than enough production in the middle infield, and several quality prospects on the come up, the motivation isn't quite there.

Despite his struggles this season, Kim remains one of the most disciplined hitters in the MLB. He gets the bat on the ball, even when he's not hitting for power. The defensive range and arm strength is top notch, and Kim is a threat to steal 30-plus bases when he's healthy. Somebody who misses out on Willy Adames or a Bo Bichette trade will drop the bag. Of curse, that will all depend on how well he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum.

2. Elias Diaz just does not have a path to consistent playing time in San Diego

The Padres picked up 2023 All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz toward the end of the season after the Colorado Rockies placed him on outright waivers. It was a chance for Diaz to latch on with a contender, but he signed a minor-leage contract and was never seriously involved in the Padres' game plan.

Diaz ended up as San Diego's third-string catcher behind Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano. Higashioka is also a free agent, so the Padres' catcher depth chart is somewhat wide-open, but one would expect San Diego to bring back its everyday starter. Decent offensive catchers are a precious commodity around the league, but Higashioka was an essential postseason bat for the Padres and he shouldn't be too expensive to re-sign.

Even if Higashioka ends up elsewhere, though, it's hard to imagine Diaz supplanting him in San Diego after being such an afterthought down the stretch. Campusano, at 26 years old, is set up as the long-term heir to Higashioka's throne. Diaz, 33, is bound to test the free agent waters in full and land with a different contender, probably on a one-year, prove-it deal.

He batted a respectable .265 this season, but Diaz's offensive metrics were concerning across the board. The veteran has a pop time in the 87th percentile and he's experienced calling games behind home plate, so somebody is going to latch on, but Diaz's All-Star days are probably in the rearview mirror. He was a great depth pickup for San Diego, but that was always destined to be a brief stay.

1. Tanner Scott will get the bag and San Diego won't overspend

There is a delicate line between recognizing the value of an elite bullpen and overspending on bullpen arms. Just ask the Houston Astros, who dropped $95 million on Josh Hader in a deal fated to flop. Tanner Scott arrived at the trade deadline and was excellent, continuing his dominant All-Star campaign that started with the Miami Marlins.

Scott is quite possibly the best southpaw reliever in the National League. The Padres' late-relief crew was up there with the best in baseball once October rolled around. Coughing up real assets for Scott at the deadline certainly incentivizes San Diego to bring him back, but the bidding war will get dizzying. Factor in the depth in the Padres' bullpen already — including a perfectly capable closer in Robert Suarez — and the signs point to Scott ending up somewhere else. At a point, San Diego will bow out of the spending wars.

Scott finished his season with a 1.75 ERA and 22 saves in 72 appearances. His performance dipped slightly after the trade to San Diego, and it's fair to wonder how sustainable the 30-year-old's dominance is after an up-and-down career. That is just one more reason to swallow the loss in terms of trade capital and let Scott land his uncomfortably large contract elsewhere. Betting on high-leverage relievers can be a dangerous game.

The Padres can always target more bullpen depth at the next trade deadline, or find quality arms for less elsewhere this winter. Scott was a great midseason addition, but with so much value placed on pitching depth league-wide, it feels like a matter of time until the Padres are outbid and bidding adieu.