The Philadelphia Phillies hit a mild rough patch at the end of a dominant month of May, now a game behind New York in the NL East. It goes without saying that Philadelphia will look to add impact talent at the trade deadline. The question is, how aggressive will Dave Dombrowski actually be?
Just last year, the Phils were expected to swing for the fences at the deadline, with names like Tanner Scott and Luis Robert Jr. getting tossed around, only for Dombrowski to settle for rentals of Austin Hays and Carlos Estévez. Both left in free agency and, funny enough, the Phillies need outfield help and bullpen depth.
Philadelphia's star power is beyond reproach, but Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner can't do this alone. The Phillies are deep on the rotation front, but need more bullpen arms to help preserve leads late — especially after José Alvarado's untimely PED suspension, which knocks him out for the postseason.
Here are a few Phillies we can expect to hit the trade block before the end of July.
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3. Aroon Escobar, 2B/3B/SS
The Athletic's latest MLB prospect rankings feature four Phillies in the top 50, the second-most in baseball. Aroon Escobar, a 20-year-old infielder with a .924 OPS for Low-A Clearwater, clocks in at No. 40 overall. If the Phillies decide to swing a major trade — perhaps for a star or at least a high-level, everyday starter — Escobar feels like a natural starting point for negotiations.
While Philadelphia should tread carefully when it comes to giving away blue-chip prospects, the Phillies' infield is somewhat loaded. Aidan Miller, Philly's No. 2 prospect and No. 9 overall at The Athletic, is Escobar's same age. In a perfect world, the Phillies' infield in a couple years probably consists of Harper, Turner, Stott and Miller, with Alec Bohm as the most expendable option. Stott is enjoying a breakthrough season. Turner is locked up for another decade. For now, Escobar's path to the big leagues in Philly, even a few years down the line, is murky at best.
That means now is a good time to capitalize on his rising stock, assuming the return is worthwhile. It would take a serious trade pursuit for Dombrowski to part with Escobar, but Philly is an aging contender with a need to maximie this World Series window. If the right player is put on the table, Philadelphia needs to at least consider parting with Escobar.
2. Johan Rojas, OF
It feels like Philadelphia has been waiting forever for Johan Rojas to figure out his swing. In reality, he's still 24, so there's ample time — and that's the reason he continues to stick around, despite well-documented struggles at the plate. Even so, Philly might be smart to test the market for Rojas now. If the swing isn't there a year from now, or two years from now, the Phillies could be left holding the bag, metaphorically speaking.
Rojas is an incredible defender in centerfield, which the Phillies absolutely benefit from, but he's clearly the worst hitter on the MLB roster and this is a team in need of more dependable outfielders. If the Phillies can flip Rojas for a veteran bat in the outfield, it's at least worth considering, especially as Brandon Marsh gradually emerges from his early-season slump.
Another team is bound to take a flier on Rojas' glove, arm and quickness on the base paths. The offensive metrics are all bad, but Philly can still use his age to qualify those struggles. That excuse only lasts for so long, though. Justin Crawford is on his way, too, with a far more impressive offensive profile.
1. Mick Abel, RHP
Mick Abel pitched six scoreless innings in his MLB debut last month and he's slated for his second career start on Thursday against Toronto. The 23-year-old looked like a lost cause a year ago, but Abel has unlocked a whole new approach and kept his elite-level stuff. He won't show up near the top of any prospect rankings, but Abel sure looks like an everyday starter.
The thing is, Philadelphia already has five All-Stars in the rotation — plus $72 million Taijuan Walker stuck in the bullpen and No. 5 overall prospect Andrew Painter blazing through his rehab in Lehigh Valley. There's too much depth for Abel to break though, and stuffing him in a bullpen role does not feel conducive to his development, even if it'd help the Phillies address a weakness in the short term.
This isn't to say the Phillies should trade Abel just to trade him — "too much" starting pitching is a good problem to have — but if the right target comes up on the radar, whether it's an elite-tier closer or a major outfield bat, the Phillies should at least consider it. Odds are Philly can afford to part with Abel and still hold together a functional rotation for 162 games.