While you will find a lot of consensus among experts near the top of prospect rankings, that consensus generally drops off in a hurry the further down you go. As players begin to have more flaws in their game, you will find some observers who still want to bet on specific tools or profiles while others want to condemn them to the shadow realm.
There are rarely completely right or wrong answers with these sorts of players. Some previously injury-prone players remain healthy the rest of their careers, while others can never stay on the field. Some guys have swing and issues in the Minor Leagues only to figure things out, while others flame out completely.
With no shortage of prospects who are far from perfect but tantalize all the same, here is a look at some of the more polarizing prospects in baseball that are starting the 2025 season off hot.
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Here are some polarizing MLB prospects that are off to hot starts in 2025
Chase Burns, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
In terms of arm talent, Burns is unimpeachable, as he features a fastball that can touch triple digits as well as a power slider that is among the best pitches in professional baseball. However, there were some questions as to how his command would project against big-league hitters, and it definitely raised some eyebrows when the Reds took Burns No. 2 overall when all-world slugger Charlie Condon was still on the board.
So far in 2025, Burns is making Cincinnati look like geniuses. While his last start wasn't ideal, Burns still holds a 3.09 ERA through his first three outings at High-A with a staggering 20 strikeouts in 11.2 innings of work against just five walks. Meanwhile, Condon struggled in his pro debut last year and has yet to play this season after breaking his wrist in spring training.
Spencer Jones, OF, New York Yankees
Jones is a funny one, because it wasn't that long ago that he was getting compared to Aaron Judge but with the ability to steal a lot of bases. Unfortunately, strikeouts were a lingering concern and those concerns ballooned to outright panic in 2024 when he struck out 200 times in Double-A while posting a pretty pedestrian .788 OPS.
The good news is that Jones is off to a pretty decent start this season. He already has six homers in 15 games while stealing bases and playing good defense out in center field. The bad news is that he also already has 22 strikeouts (a 33.8% strikeout rate, for those keeping track at home) despite the fact that he is repeating the level this year. If Jones figures things out, he has the talent to be an All-Star, but he is going to have to chill with the swing and miss to even approach that ceiling.
Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
No one has ever argued that Horton wasn't talented enough to make it to the big leagues. He was a highly regarded two-way prospect out of high school, but his Oklahoma commitment was ironclad and he made it to campus. Horton would then almost immediately need Tommy John surgery, but was so good in abbreviated playing time the following year in the College World Series that the Cubs still picked him seventh overall.
After missing a ton of time in 2024 with a shoulder issue, Chicago's decision to invest such a high draft pick in Horton was called into question. Thankfully, Horton looks like he is in strong form again with a 1.46 ERA through his first three starts at Triple-A. He is walking way too many batters right now to start the season, but betting on his fastball/slider combo still seems like a good idea assuming he can actually stay on the mound.