3 reasons Dalton Knecht is falling out of the Rookie of the Year race

The NBA Rookie of the Year race is more open than Ben Simmons when he spots up at the three-point line. The award looked like it was going to be a runaway for Jared McCain of the Philadelphia 76ers, but a season-ending torn meniscus that the former Duke Blue Devil suffered a month ago has taken him out of the running.

For a time, Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Dalton Knecht was hot on McCain's heels, thanks to an explosive run in November that saw him score 17 points or more in five of six games. One of those performances was a 37-point breakout against the Jazz, which is still the most points a rookie has scored in a game this year.

Knecht hasn't been able to take advantage of McCain's injury. In late November, he was the second favorite on FanDuel at +250, but at the time of this writing, he's a distant eighth at +5000. That makes him sound like the ultimate longshot, but with 46 games still remaining in the Lakers' season, a lot can change between now and the spring.

Let's look today at why Knecht has fallen back in the race, and what he can do to get back in it.

The Lakers have been too healthy to give Knecht big minutes

Any good fantasy player would tell you — there's nothing more important than opportunity. You can't put up stats if you're not on the floor, and Knecht has been a prime example of that. His hot stretch in November coincided with Rui Hachimura's injury and D'Angelo Russell's move to the bench, but as the Lakers have gotten healthier (and traded Russell for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton), his minutes have dried up.

Knecht's minutes have been nosediving for well over a month. In November, he averaged over 26 minutes per game, then that number dropped to just over 21 in December. Through four games in January, he's down to 16.3, a direct result of Finney-Smith's arrival and the health of the rest of the roster.

Barring any unforeseen health issues with Finney-Smith or Hachimura, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better for Knecht, as Jarred Vanderbilt is reportedly close to making his season debut following a pair of offseason foot surgeries. Vanderbilt's reputation as a defensive stopper should get him playing time as soon as he's able to handle it.

Knecht isn't scoring enough to make up for his lack of other stats

Knecht isn't merely a victim of his circumstances. If he was playing better, it would force JJ Redick to put him out there. It's been a struggle lately, though. Knecht's primary value is as a shooter and a scorer, but he only put up 6.8 points per game in December while shooting just 15.6 percent from 3.

That's not ideal, but it would be forgivable if Knecht could D up like Finney-Smith or Vanderbilt. He can't, and he's not contributing in other ways, either. The former First Team All-American is only dishing out one assist per game, which is 25th among rookies. His 3.3 rebounds per game ranks 17th. Blocks and steals have been virtually nonexistent.

The Lakers took Knecht with the 17th overall pick in the draft with full knowledge that he wasn't much of a defensive player. While he could improve in that area, it's never going to be the strength of his game. If Knecht wants to get back in this race, he needs to put together one of his patented hot streaks. Three straight games of 20 points or more should do the trick, and that could catapult him into a more secure spot in the rotation.

Like many shooters, Knecht is streaky. Playing 17 minutes a game is barely enough time to get warm, let alone light it up. Redick isn't going to give him minutes until he earns them though, so he needs to figure out a way to put up points off the bench.

Other rookies have been bigger contributors

Knecht's one-dimensional game isn't doing him any favors, especially compared to some of his top competitors for Rookie of the Year. The Pelicans have been an injury-plagued dumpster fire, but Yves Missi has dazzled as a rebounding and shot-blocking dynamo. Stephen Castle is averaging more points than Knecht, and he's also playing the lockdown defense the Spurs anticipated when they drafted him with the fourth pick.

The 2024 draft was considered weak because it lacked a top prospect like a Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero or Chet Holmgren. There was no clear top prospect, so when Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr were taken 1-2 by the Hawks and Wizards, it inspired yawns around the league. Both have looked like real contributors though. Sarr is averaging 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game (tied for most among rookies), while Risacher has been an important part of Atlanta's young rotation with 10.7 points and his switchable defense.

Other rookies have surged past Knecht as well, such as Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells of the Grizzlies and Tristan de Silva of the Magic. Edey has been a matchup nightmare off the bench for the third-seeded Grizz. Wells has drawn raves for his defense, the highlight of which was helping to hold Steph Curry without a field goal in a 51-point whooping in late December. De Silva has emerged as a huge reason why Orlando has been able to stay afloat as they dealt with injuries to Banchero and Jalen Suggs.

This may not be a top-heavy rookie class, but it's proving to be a deep one. Knecht has gotten lost in the shuffle not only due to his decreased minutes and poor shooting, but because other rookies are making an impact all around the league. He's going to need to start hitting a lot of shots to get back in this race.