3 reasons why the Kings' season has gone in the wrong direction

For over a decade and a half, the Sacramento Kings were the laughingstock of the NBA. No matter what star talent they had on their roster, the team couldn't find the winning formula, even if it hit them in the face. And outside of injuries that derailed the promising career of Tyreke Evans, it's tough to argue against the idea that most of it was their own doing. Bad drafting is the most obvious one, but it's understandable why they picked the players they did at the time. However, their coaching decisions have always been puzzling.

After all, this is a franchise that simply chose to not renew the contract of Rick Adelman, who had led them to a 63.3 winning percentage in eight seasons (all resulting in playoff appearances) in the 2006 offseason. That led them to a downward spiral that resulted in a 17-year playoff drought (the longest in U.S. sports history), and cycling through 12 head coaches up until 2022. There were multiple that could've grown something special in Sacramento if they were given leeway (Michael Malone, Dave Joerger), but it seemed like they had lucked themselves into a gem anyway in Mike Brown.

Brown, who coached four Cleveland Cavaliers teams to 50+ wins with LeBron James, coached Kobe Bryant and had been an assistant with the Golden State Warriors for six seasons prior to being hired, successfully turned around the franchise. In 2022-23, they ended their postseason drought, had their winningest season since 2004-05 by being the third seed in the Western Conference, and appeared to be headed in the right direction.

Their star duo of De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis were in their prime years and complemented each other well, their entire core for that matter was under 28 years old. They had the best offense in the NBA (119.4 offensive rating), and if could have just an average defense, they could improve upon a hard-fought seven-game first-round exit at the hands of the Warriors.

Instead, the Kings were bounced in the Play-In last season, and currently sit at 13-19, 12th in the West, have lost six straight games, and just fired Brown, six months removed from signing him to a three-year extension. How quickly things change.

What's gone wrong with their season?

*all stats below are as of 12/27/2024

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Injury luck isn't on their side

Going from the third seed to the ninth seems like a steep dropoff. Yet, in 2023-24 they only lost two fewer games (46) than they did the year prior. So, what explains it? Well, while it might seem reductive to point towards luck being involved (and I hate it when it comes to the term "shooting luck"), it's quite frankly the reality of the situation. While they did have a stellar season, and all credit should be given to them because they went out and won games with a great team, other teams that could've been better didn't have luck on their side.

To be specific, the Dallas Mavericks (Kyrie Irving only played 20 games, and the team didn't have a paint presence), New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both played less than 50 games), Minnesota Timberwolves (Karl-Anthony Towns only played 29 games, and were in their first season with Rudy Gobert on team), and Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George missing games, and had the John Wall experiment to start their season 15-19) were all severely hampered by injuries, while teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder (one year before they got Chet Holmgren) and Houston Rockets (before they got Ime Udoka) were still coming along.

Fast forward to the following season and there were three teams (New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Dallas) that went from not making the playoffs to being in them, and the Thunder (Holmgren addition and continued growth of the rest of the team) and Mavericks (health, addition of Dereck Lively II via the draft and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline) improved to being 50-win teams, while the Pelicans were at 49.

Plus, the Clippers went from 44 wins to 51 with a healthy George and Leonard, and acquiring James Harden in November, and Minnesota had a 14-win improvement by having a healthy KAT, an elite defense anchored by Gobert, and a blossoming superstar in Anthony Edwards. Considering all of that, at least one team was going to be the odd one out, and the Kings were on the wrong side of the equation.

While their defense improved, as they went from a 116.8 defensive rating in 2022-23 (25th in NBA) to a 115.2 (14th in NBA), their offense went from being elite (119.4 offensive rating, 1st in NBA) to middle of the pack (116.9, 13th in NBA). In light of those developments, the Kings made a splash in trading for DeMar DeRozan to form a star trio to compete with a conference that was once again proving to be extremely competitive. But, that brings us to...

The DeMar DeRozan addition hasn't been as helpful

While DeRozan is still a good player, coming off a fantastic season with the Chicago Bulls, the fit right off the bat was questionable. After all, the way this team played so well was with Fox and Sabonis leading the dance, and everyone being able to attack the advantages they created. By swapping Harrison Barnes with DeRozan, while it was a talent upgrade, it was a downgrade in their play style.

And, despite DeRozan playing well (20.7 points per game, 3.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 48.0 FG%), their offense hasn't gotten back to an elite level (currently ranks ninth in offensive rating), while their defense is still below average (14th last season, 15th now). Looking further into the offense, it's clear that DeRozan takes away from what the strength of this team was: the 3-pointer.

Late in games, Fox could close out games with the best of them, as he won Clutch Player of the Year in 2022-23. He has one of the best mid-range games in basketball right now, but everyone else could shoot threes at will, whether it was flying off Sabonis screens or in the catch-and-shoot variety. In both 2022-23 and 2023-24, the Kings ranked in the top five in both threes attempted and made per game. This season, with DeRozan, a player who actively doesn't take 3s, they are 24th in both, and also in 3P%. If there's a stat discrepancy that best describes their downfall, it's that.

What's harder to explain is how worse they've gotten in clutch games. After being one of the best in 2022-23 (25-19, +1.1) and average in 2023-24 (20-19, +0.4), they have the most losses in games decided by five points or fewer this season with 13, an overall 6-13 record (-0.3). They already had a stellar clutch player and added another one in DeRozan, who was a finalist for the CPOY in the last two seasons.

All in all, DeRozan was brought in to bolster their offense by being a formidable third option, someone who could take pressure off of their core and create offense with space, which is something he showed he could do at an elite level last year in Chicago. However, none of those hopes have come to fruition.

Yet, when you look at the Kings starting lineup, there's a bigger issue that needs to be addressed...

Not finding an answer at the starting shooting guard position

Going into the 2022-23 campaign, the Kings had a star creator who could get to the rim at lighting speed, and could counter that with a stellar mid-range game and an improving three with Fox. Sabonis was going into his first full season with the franchise and juiced their offense by being a good screener and master of the handoffs.

Keegan Murray would be a consistent fixture next to Sabonis, a beneficiary of those handoffs, a secondary creator, and someone who could develop into a solid defender. Barnes was solid all around, has he's always been. The missing piece would be a great two-guard, someone who would be great at perimeter defense and could knock down shots. Acquiring Kevin Huerter from the Atlanta Hawks seemed like that answer. And while he had the best season of his career (career-high 15.2 points per game on 48.5 FG% and 40.2 3P%, both career-bests), he struggled mightily in their playoff series against the Golden State Warriors (9.1 points on 34.7 FG% and 20.5 3P%), which hurt their chances of beating the dubs in a series they lost in seven games.

The following season, Huerter was still solid but dropped five points on his scoring average. Even though Murray picked up some of the slack (he went from a 12.2-point rookie season to 15.2 in his sophomore year), the Kings offense went from the top of the NBA to average.

While their defense did improve from being among the worst to middle of the pack as well, their shots weren't falling at the same clip (they went from being second in FG% in 2022-23 to 14th in 2023-24). Huerter, for his part, shot less per game in 2023-24 (8.8 FGA) than in 2022-23 (11.5 FGA), but was worse in the former (44.3 FG% in 2023-24, as opposed to 48.5 FG% in 2022-23). On top of that, in the heat of the playoff race, he suffered a shoulder injury that kept him out for the last 15 games of the season.

in his absence, second-year pro Keon Ellis stepped up. After playing just 4.4 minutes over 16 games in 2022-23, he was a consistent piece off the bench for most of the season but was thrust into a starting role with Huerter going down. In that spot, he played tremendous: over the last 19 games of the season (17 starts), he averaged 9.4 points, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks on 49.2 FG% and 45.9 3P%, along with stingy defense.

Above all, he was a +3.9 in 27.6 minutes, while Huerter was a +1.2 in 24.4 minutes over 64 games (small sample size be damned). That would make it seem as though Ellis would be primed for the starting two spot along Fox, as he proved he could knock down shots being helped off of, which would be more with DeRozan drawing more attention. Yet, that hasn't been the case.

Over the team's first 31 games, Ellis has only gotten 19.9 minutes in the 29 games he's seen action in. He's still been positive (+2.7, as opposed to Huerter's -0.2), and still hitting his threes (40.7 3P%). The Kings have made a lineup change with Huerter struggling this season (9.6 points on 43.0 FG% and just 31.2 3P%), but it was the wrong one. Out went Huerter and in went Monk, who was coming off a runner-up to the Sixth Man of the Year award season last year.

While, in a vacuum, it wasn't the worst move, and Monk has played well in the role (in 11 games he's averaging 16.4 points and 5.8 assists on 41.7 FG% and 35.2 3P%), the lineup hasn't been that great overall (in 235 minutes this season, Fox/Monk/DeRozan/Murray/Sabonis have a 1.39 net rating, and it made another of the Kings problems worse. Because, another of Sacramento's strengths was bench scoring, as in 2022-23 they ranked ninth in that category, and 12th in 2023-24. This season, they were already struggling before Monk was inserted into the starting lineup (by Dec. 1, when the change was made, they were averaging 25.8 bench points, 27th), and that hasn't gotten any better by removing one of the best bench players over the last two seasons from the mix.

Furthermore, it compounds the issue of too many players needing the ball in their hands. While Fox and Monk have played well around Sabonis, someone who needs the ball in his hands, they still should get most of the touches when they're in the court, and now they have DeRozan who also needs the ball in his hands.

While Ellis hasn't been perfect, it was wrong of the Kings to not try that. After all, even though it's just a 54-minute sample, the lineup of Fox/Ellis/DeRozan/Murray/Sabonis has a net rating of 16.5 this season. But now, there's no turning back. If Monk is demoted, not only would it be a bad look on the team, but it would also put unwarranted pressure on Ellis to perform in his place, even though providing offense isn't his main role.

The obvious answer for another lineup change would be Murray, given his down season (went back to scoring 12 points per contest but on worse shooting at 41.9 FG% and 29.5 3P%), but I'm not sure if playing DeRozan at the four full-time is the move, though I suppose it wouldn't be that bad to open up the floor and get back to their winning formula of 2022-23 (elite offense, mid defense), so it should be seriously considered.

There has been pushback all season on giving Ellis more run over veterans like Huerter and Monk, and while I understand where they come from and I agree with them, I also understand how hard that move is from a coaching perspective. This isn't a videogame, where you can just bench players whenever you feel like it and the only consequence is maybe a decrease on some attributes. This is real life, where coaches need to have those conversations with those veterans. Also, it's tough as a coach to have to hear from the front office when it comes to someone like Huerter, who they're paying $17 million to. It was easy to make that decision last year with him hurt, but now that everyone is healthy it's a bit dicey. Or maybe it isn't and Brown didn't even try, but we can't pass judgment as we aren't in the building with these people and seeing what conversations happened.

What is certain, though, is that the starting backcourt spot next to Fox has been the question mark around this team for two seasons, and not finding a consistent answer has cost them.

Bad luck or self -inflicted?

While the improvement of everyone around them is something worth pointing at, the larger share of the blame pie should be thrown the Kings' way. Actually, even though most are defending him, some of it should go Brown's way, mainly for the starting lineup struggles, and on the way he criticized his team's play. Still, that doesn't excuse the front office firing another successful coach, and making the wrong moves in the offseason, and no one outside of the players themselves can control their missing shots. Which is to say that most of the problems with this team are outside of Brown's control, and punishing him for it is rash.

Not only the firing, but the timing of it was rough at best, tasteless at worst. When so many respected head coaches have come out as strongly as they have against the move, it goes to show how badly this was handled. But it should come as no surprise given the franchise and front office, the same one that had good coaches like Malone and Joerger and squandered them away. For their sake, I hope they get their next hire right, and find a way to rectify the team around Fox and Sabonis, because the contrary would mean they would squander away their best shot at winning a championship for the next decade.