It's Championship Week, or at least that's what ESPN calls it. For the North Carolina Tar Heels, a more apt name would be Survival Week. UNC's NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread after faltering in the second half against Duke this past weekend. Not because they lost to the Blue Devils, because that's what nearly every team that has gone against Cooper Flagg and company this year have done. The Tar Heels are in trouble because they didn't take care of business all year long against teams that they could have and should have beaten.
Carolina is 1-11 in Quad 1 games, a stupefying record for a program with the history and talent to be considered one of the bluest of the blue bloods in college basketball. The Heels beat UCLA at Madison Square Garden way back in December for their only quality win, and have been living out the same deja vu feeling of coming up just short in games that matter for nearly three months since.
The Heels will begin their ACC Tournament run knowing that they have to win at least two games to even be considered for inclusion in the field, but if we're being real with ourselves, they probably have to get through Duke and reach the finals to actually make it.
That's a problem for another day, because this Carolina team hasn't shown themselves to be good enough to be able to overlook anyone this year. That includes 15-17 Notre Dame, who the Heels will match up with in the first game of the day on Wednesday. The Fighting Irish are fresh off a controversial win over Pitt on Tuesday in which they were gifted a highly suspect foul call with less than a second remaining. One made free throw later and a game that seemed destined for overtime was suddenly over, period.
If Carolina is going to live to fight another die, they'll have to beat Notre Dame first. Here are three reasons the Heels can't look past the Irish.
Notre Dame should have won the last meeting between these two teams
This isn't the first time the Tar Heels and Fighting Irish have met this year. Their first matchup was a barnburner just after New Year's that the Heels pulled out by the skin of their teeth.
Up to that point in the season, Carolina had made a habit of falling behind big early in games, then fighting back only to come up just short. The shoe was on the other foot in this one, as for once the Heels grabbed a big lead, but they couldn't hold it. UNC led by 11 at one point early in the second half, but were left helpless as Notre Dame came roaring back. The Irish actually held a three-point lead with under 15 seconds left.
That's when Elliot Cadeau, not known for his outside shooting prowess, hit a three and got fouled with four seconds left. He made the free throw to complete the four-point play and give the Heels the win.
This was the first game back for Markus Burton, Notre Dame's leading scorer that had missed over a month with an MCL strain. Burton scored 23 in his first game back, but he's been even better since then. He's scored 25 or more seven times since that game, and just two games ago he put up 43 against Cal in a wild quadruple overtime win.
The Heels have looked much better in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season, but so have the Irish. Notre Dame has won three straight games for the first time since they beat the gauntlet of Syracuse, Dartmouth and Le Moyne back in mid-December. This game won't be nearly as easy as the records would indicate.
The Irish have learned how to win close games
If it feels like nearly every other Carolina game has come down to the wire, that's because they pretty much have. Almost half of UNC's games have been decided by six points or less, and though they are 8-5 in such contests, they haven't played one in nearly a month.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, seems to be in a dogfight every time they take the court these days. Their last four games have all been decided by three points or less, and after losing by three at Wake Forest to start the month, they've won three straight by two, two, and one.
Carolina pulled out a miracle to win by one at Notre Dame before, but the Irish are better prepared for a tight one this time around, while the Heels may have lost their edge due to participating in more blowouts. Obviously Notre Dame is nowhere near Duke talent-wise, but Carolina was close the entire way with the Blue Devils on Saturday, even leading by six more than a third of the way through the second half.
Whether they tightened up or just got beaten because Duke has a more talented team this year, the fact remains that the Heels couldn't turn that close game into a desperately-needed victory. They didn't end up close at all, in fact, losing by 13 in the end.
Carolina has everything to lose, while the Irish are playing with house money
When you take into consideration the program history and the preseason expectations, no team in the country is under more pressure this week than Carolina. That can be a good thing if it forces a team to reach a new level, but more often than not it's a curse, as a group of underperforming college kids succumb to the pressure of trying to keep their season alive.
Notre Dame has no such stress, as they're just happy to be here. Nobody expects anything of this team, not when they've gone 15-17 on the year and have no chance of making the tournament unless they go on the most improbable conference tournament run of all-time.
It's worth remembering that similar things were said about ACC Tournament 10-seed NC State last year, and the Wolfpack rolled off five wins in five days to crash the Big Dance. They eventually made the Final Four as an 11-seed, becoming just the sixth team to do so.
I bring up Kevin Keatts' now-former team not to suggest that Notre Dame is capable of doing something similar. They almost surely aren't. Can they beat a superior team or two because they aren't weighed down by the pressure of needing to win? Definitely.
Carolina could still be licking its wounds after losing on RJ Davis' Senior Day to Duke, and they could also be looking ahead to a rematch with their bitter rivals, or even a rematch against Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. The Demon Deacons beat the Tar Heels by one in late January, and I'm guessing UNC will be thirsty for revenge.
That won't help them beat Notre Dame, which is why they need to take care of business before thinking ahead. Micah Shrewsberry's team is going to be up for this game, and they're feeling good after stealing the win against Pitt. If the Heels don't play close to their potential, then one of the more disappointing seasons in recent Carolina memory will end with a whimper.