If the North Carolina Tar Heels were a gum, they'd be Bubblicious. UNC began this season ranked No. 9 in the AP poll, but what's followed in the months since has mostly been one mediocre performance after another. Like their name implies, the Tar Heels have had trouble putting one foot in front of the other, and even after Saturday's one-point home win over Pitt, they're only 14-10 and just hanging onto the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Heels travel to Clemson tonight to take on a Tigers team that just beat Duke this weekend. While that certainly gives them a chance for a signature win, there's been nothing this season to suggest that Carolina is capable of such a performance against a quality team.
UNC is 1-9 in Quad 1 games, an unthinkable record of big-game futility for one of the few true blue bloods in the sport. There are many reasons Carolina has fallen off so badly after last year's 1-seed and Sweet Sixteen berth, but today we're going to distill it down to three. May this be the kick in the argyle-lined pants that the Heels need to come away with a win tonight and turn their season around.
3. Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin
They say you don't know what you've got until it's gone, and Carolina fans know all about that after watching the team's center platoon struggle to stay afloat this season. Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin have had their moments, but they've been few and far between. After five years of Armando Bacot, the difference couldn't be more stark.
Bacot finished his five-year collegiate career as UNC's all-time leader in rebounds and double-doubles. He also finished second in scoring behind Tyler Hansbrough, but more than raw stats, what he gave Carolina was a consistent post presence that the team just doesn't have today.
Washington and Lubin have combined to play over 34 minutes per game, averaging 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds between them. That's less than Bacot averaged over the course of his career in just over 28 minutes per game.
Carolina has traditionally had a huge rebounding edge over its opponents, but that hasn't been the case this year as Washington and Lubin have been powerless to stand up to bigger opponents. The general rule has been that when a team has size, Carolina has no answers down low, and we saw that in games against Auburn, Alabama and Duke, among others.
Offensively, Washington and Lubin have given the team practically nothing outside the paint. That lack of floor spacing has made life more difficult for RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau and Ian Jackson, each of whom has had difficulties getting into the lane and finishing.
2. RJ Davis
Just as in the NBA, college teams often go only as far as their stars take them. That's been unfortunate for the Heels, because although RJ Davis hasn't been bad by any stretch, he hasn't looked like the player that was named a First Team All-American and ACC Player of the Year last season.
Davis' scoring is down almost four points per game, and Carolina fans that had the utmost confidence that his shot would find the bottom of the net in past years haven't had that same feeling this time around. That's been corroborated by the numbers, as he's shooting 8.1 percentage points lower from three and 4.2 percentage points worse on long twos.
It may not sound like much, but Carolina has four one-possession losses this year: to Kansas, Michigan State, Stanford and Wake Forest. Davis didn't hit last year's average in any of them. Add four points from him in each game and not only is Carolina not on the bubble, they're 18-6 and on track for a top-four seed.
Davis has struggled to fill the leadership vacuum left by Bacot and departed veterans Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, and as the elder statesman on this team, that's been a problem. He's more of a lead-by-example type than the three aforementioned players, and it's an element this team has really been missing. Carolina also hasn't often handled itself well in end-of-game situations, which is unusual for a team with a senior guard this decorated.
1. Hubert Davis
When a team doesn't meet expectations, it's usually the head coach that goes under the microscope first. Hubert Davis is no exception, and the criticism has been warranted for a number of reasons.
For one, Davis failed to land an impactful big man in the transfer portal. With Bacot graduating, that was clearly the team's top need. Plug Bacot or someone like him into this team and most of the problems would evaporate.
Cade Tyson, a transfer from Belmont, was at least supposed to be an outside shooting threat, but he's been completely invisible. This highlights another issue with the job Davis has done — for someone that was such a prolific three-point shooter as a player, he's failed miserably to develop players in that regard. Carolina is ranked 236th in the nation in three-point percentage, a stat in today's analytically-driven game that's as close to a death sentence as one can get.
Davis also has to own Carolina's trouble in close games, and its difficulties in beating quality teams with quality coaches. What do Bill Self, Bruce Pearl, Tom Izzo, Nate Oats, Todd Golden, Pat Kelsey and Jon Scheyer all have in common? They've all beaten Davis and the Heels this year.
Davis announced plans last week to hire a general manager beginning next year to allow him to focus more on the actual coaching aspects of his job. He needs to hope that this move isn't too little, too late to save him, as missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in his four years in charge would put him on the hottest of hot seats.