3 teams in CFP rankings that will get screwed over by auto bids

The first edition of the 2024 College Football Playoff rankings were revealed on Tuesday night, and while nothing is official with a month of games left to play, it still gives us a meaningful glimpse into the committee's thought process in this brave new 12-team world. Some teams shouldn't have anything to worry about so long as they handle their business: If you're a one-loss team from either the Big 10 or SEC, chances are you're in pretty good shape. Others, however, learned the hard way that they might be left out in the cold when all is said and done.

More than anything, the first rankings showed us just how crowded the competition for at-large spots is going to be. The expanded 12-team field offers more access to the national title than ever before. But setting aside auto bids for the top five conference champions means that, inevitably, some teams who might be deserving but didn't win their conference title are going to get snubbed — even if their resume otherwise suggests they should be in.

3. LSU (6-2)

Initial CFP ranking: 15

That season-opening loss to USC put the Tigers behind the 8-ball; pick up a third loss, and this conversation is moot. But it's not hard to imagine LSU winning out: Brian Kelly's team has three of its final four games at home, with a lone road trip to Florida in between. Take care of business against talented but flawed Alabama, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma squads, and you're looking at a 10-2 team with multiple notable wins in the deepest conference in the country.

And yet, even that might not be enough. LSU doesn't play Georgia, Texas or Tennessee, and doesn't hold the tiebreaker against Texas A&M. Even if they do win out, it's likely they don't reach the SEC championship game, in which case they could very well be left on the wrong side of the bubble when all is said and done. A win over the Crimson Tide would remove one obstacle, but what happens if, say, Iowa State or Kansas State hands BYU its first loss in the Big 12 title game? Will the committee snub a one-loss Cougars team in favor of a two-loss LSU?

2. Ole Miss (7-2)

Initial CFP ranking: 16

You could make a lot of the same arguments for Ole Miss, except the Rebels may control their own destiny even less than LSU does. Lane Kiffin and Co. have a chance for a statement win this Saturday against Georgia, but even that might not be enough to secure an at-large spot. If both LSU and Texas A&M also win out, Ole Miss will be frozen out of the conference title game and so far down the conference pecking order that there might not be room for them in the 12-team CFP field when the music stops. They're already behind fellow two-loss SEC teams in Alabama, A&M and LSU, and there may not be enough runway to make up that kind of ground unless the committee really prizes that hypothetical win over the Dawgs. And even then, the teams in front of the Rebels all have opportunities to add ranked wins themselves.

1. SMU (8-1)

Initial CFP ranking: 13

Arguably no team is more justified in its beef with the committee than the Mustangs, who have an eminently justifiable loss (at home in an extremely fluky affair to BYU, before it figured out its quarterback situation) and convincing wins over top-25 Louisville and Pittsburgh. And yet, despite that seemingly rock-solid resume, SMU finds itself all the way back in 13th, on the wrong side of the at-large bubble if the playoff were to begin today.

At this point, it's hard to see a path forward for Rhett Lashlee's team that doesn't involve winning the ACC and earning an auto bid. Even a loss in the conference title game (likely to undefeated Miami) would put the Mustangs behind not only the likes of Alabama and Notre Dame — teams already ahead of them despite less impressive resumes — but also other SEC teams like A&M, LSU and Ole Miss, depending on how the rest of their schedules shake out. For whatever reason, the committee just isn't very impressed with what the other two Power 4 conferences have to offer this season, and SMU seems like it could be the first team out when all is said and done.