3 things the Bills can do against Dolphins to prove they're AFC front-runners
By Luke Norris
With a dominant 31-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday, the Buffalo Bills improved to 6-2 on the season and have a commanding lead in the AFC East, even with the New York Jets upsetting the Houston Texans on Thursday night. (Now 3-6, the Jets are in second place, so that tells you all need to know about the overall state of the division.)
As it pertains to the overall NFL playoff picture, the Bills currently sit in the No. 3 position in the AFC, trailing only the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) and the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2). As the Steelers are 4-1 within the conference and the Bills are 4-2, Pittsburgh gets the No. 2 slot despite the two teams having identical overall records.
While the Bills are in a great spot heading into the second half of the season, some still aren't viewing them as a genuine Super Bowl contender at this point. And there's actually some logic to that argument: Of their six victories, none have come against opponents that currently have a record better than .500. The best marks belong to the Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals, both of whom are 4-4. The other four currently have a combined record of 8-23.
The two games Buffalo has played against teams with winning records right now — the Baltimore Ravens (5-3) and the aforementioned Texans (6-3) — both resulted in losses. So, again, it's understandable why some aren't sold on Sean McDermott's squad just yet.
That leads us to the Bills' Week 9 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who are part of that 8-23 group as Buffalo soundly defeated its longtime rival in Week 2 by a score of 31-10. And if the Bills want to be seen as a genuine threat to teams like the Chiefs, Steelers and even the Ravens and Texans, they'll need a similar kind of victory on Sunday afternoon.
Here's a look at three things the Bills need to do against the Dolphins to make a statement that they're among the elite in the AFC.
Continue to stay balanced on offense
In their first eight games, the Bills have shown remarkable balance on the offensive side of the football, striking a genuine 50/50 split with 226 pass attempts and 226 rushing attempts. As the Dolphins rank 16th against the run, allowing 123.7 yards per game on the ground, and fifth against the pass, giving up just 176.3 yards per game through the air, Buffalo will likely utilize James Cook early. And, overall, perhaps they'll attempt to run it more than they normally would.
But just as they did against the Tennessee Titans, who were the top-ranked team against the pass when they visited Buffalo, the Bills need to continue to prove they can establish the passing game against a strong pass defense. Josh Allen certainly did that against Tennessee, throwing for a season-high 323 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He certainly doesn't have to hit the 300-yard mark, but it would be nice to see him at least 250, again, if only to prove to the other top teams in the conference that he can sling it against anybody, no matter how strong the pass defense is.
For that to happen, of course, the running game still has to be there. And it will be. Just showing that they can beat you both ways will do nothing but help the Bills moving forward.
The Buffalo defense has to prove it can shut down a high-octane offense
The Buffalo defense has been a bit of an anomaly this season.
When looking at just scoring, the Bills look great; they've only allowed 18.3 points per game, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. In terms of yardage, however, they've struggled at times, especially against better teams. Look no further than the 427 yards they allowed to the Ravens and the 425 they allowed to the Texans for proof there.
Overall, Buffalo has allowed 120.2 rushing yards and 208.1 passing yards per game, ranking roughly in the middle of the pack in both categories. Luckily, the Bills have been able to offset some of the damage by being one of the league's best defenses in the red zone, allowing touchdowns just 42.9% of the time, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.
But that's a tough thing to have to rely on all the time. The Bills need to improve on getting stops before their opponent gets that deep, and they can make a statement against Miami. The Dolphins, of course, haven't had the success most expected them to, which is obviously tied to the concussion suffered by Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2 against Buffalo. Without him under center, the Dolphins' offensive attack simply isn't the same, and the numbers while he was out reflected that.
With Tagovailoa back in the lineup this past Sunday, the Dolphins posted 377 yards of total offense in their loss to the Cardinals, their highest total since putting up 400 in their Week 1 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a loss likely ending any chance they have at a Wild Card berth, the Dolphins are going to bring everything they've got to Buffalo on Sunday afternoon. And with Tua back in the mix, the Bills' defense is going to need to be ready to make a statement that they can shut down a high-octane offense. Because against some of the better ones they've faced thus far, they haven't.
The Bills need to beat the Dolphins in convincing fashion
Good teams take losses. That's just the NFL. The Texans should have beaten the Jets on Thursday night, but they didn't. The Ravens should have beaten the Cleveland Browns last week, but they didn't.
This is in no way a must-win game for the Bills, at least in terms of their overall standing in the AFC. But if they want to make a real statement, another convincing victory over a Dolphins team that will be relatively healthy on Sunday could do just that.
Again, Miami is simply a different team with Tua in the lineup. And with another week of practice under his belt, he'll likely be even sharper than he was against Arizona, a game in which he completed 73.7% of his passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. If the Bills' defense can keep him at bay and limit the rushing attack of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, Allen and the offense should be able to put up more than enough points to get Buffalo a big win here.
The real statement game, of course, comes two weeks from now when the Bills welcome the Chiefs to Highmark Stadium. So, it's important that they not look past the Dolphins this week or the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. If they can keep their eye on the ball and showcase some dominance these next couple of games, the overall confidence level will be through the roof when the champs come to town.