If the North Carolina Tar Heels don't make the NCAA Tournament, it won't be because they didn't have enough chances, it will be because they just didn't convert any of them. Despite the ACC being mediocre outside of the triumvirate of Duke, Clemson and Louisville, Hubert Davis and his squad have played a tough schedule, but with almost no exceptions, have consistently fallen short.
Not every college basketball team gets repeated opportunities to prove to the selection committee that they belong in the Big Dance. Not every team even deserves it, and given how often they've wasted their previous opportunities, it would be easy to argue that the Tar Heels don't either.
None of that matters, because whether they deserve it or not, UNC will have a chance to play itself into the field on Thursday night when they get a third crack at the Duke Blue Devils, this time in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The first meeting between these blood rivals was a bloodbath, with Duke holding serve at Cameron Indoor Stadium with ease.
The second meeting was a real fight, but Duke's defensive pressure and rebounding proved too much as they overcame a six-point Carolina second-half lead to win by double digits in Chapel Hill on Senior Night.
Carolina has been playing better in the past month than they have all season, but they're still clearly a couple of levels below Duke's best, which is why they couldn't have loved being matched up on the same side of the bracket. They still did well to get here though, easily dispatching Notre Dame on Wednesday and then outlasting Wake Forest in an intensely physical battle on Thursday.
That win over the Demon Deacons allowed the Heels to get revenge for a loss suffered earlier in the year, and now they'll need to exact some vengeance on Duke if they want to assure themselves of a spot in the field of 68.
Duke is a lock for a 1-seed in the tournament, and they'd be favored by double digits if both teams were at full strength here. That isn't the case though, as Cooper Flagg, the consensus No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft, is unlikely to play after suffering a nasty-looking ankle sprain against Georgia Tech yesterday.
Carolina was already going to be playing with plenty of desperation, but Flagg's probable absence gives them real hope that they have a chance to pull off the upset and finally get a signature win. Don't be fooled into thinking that the Blue Devils are an easy mark without their wunderkind freshman though, because Jon Scheyer's team is loaded with talent even with Flagg taken out of the equation. In fact, they're still favored by 7.5 points by FanDuel anyway.
Despite being underdogs, Carolina has shown in the past that they can beat a favored Duke team when it matters most. Now the Heels need to call upon that magic again, but what specifically do they need to do to slay the Blue Devils and book a date in the finals?
Contain Kon Knueppel
Flagg may be the best one, but he's far from the only impressive freshman on Duke. Khaman Maluach is a 7-foot-2 rim protector that makes his living off of lobs and putbacks, and he'll be a problem for Jalen Washington and the recently reinvigorated Ven-Allen Lubin.
Kon Knueppel is going to be Duke's most important player in this game, and that's something that Blue Devil fans are very OK with. The freshman guard plays with a poise beyond his years, with a sweet outside shot and a deliberate tempo that sees him rarely turn the ball over.
Knueppel is tall enough at 6-foot-7 to get his shot off against any Carolina defender in a 1v1 situation, and Duke loves to make use of his quick release to free him off of perimeter screens. He's also adept at finishing with a wide variety of runners, turnarounds and bank shots in the lane.
Carolina is going to have to fight through every screen and deny Knueppel the ball at every opportunity, because he showed in yesterday's win over Georgia Tech that he's capable of putting the Duke offense on his back. He scored 28 points against the Yellow Jackets, 22 of which came after halftime when Flagg was already ruled out.
Even with Flagg playing in both of the previous Duke-UNC games, the presumptive No. 1 pick only scored 36 total points compared to Knueppel's 39. If Flagg sits, Knueppel is a threat to go off, but Carolina can't let him.
The best option to stop Knueppel is to put fellow freshman Drake Powell on him. Powell did a great job on Flagg for most of the game in Chapel Hill, and if Flagg sits, he'll be freed up to target Duke's new top offensive option.
RJ Davis needs to carry the Heels one more time
RJ Davis has had a long and fruitful career in Carolina blue. He helped lead the Heels to a national title game in 2022, he won ACC Player of the Year last year, and he's second behind Tyler Hansbrough on the school's all-time scoring list.
Davis has a history of coming through in big games. He's still Carolina's best player even though he hasn't quite matched last year's performance, but the Heels need him to put the team on his back one last time in this game.
Davis has had more than a few games this year in which he seemed invisible through much of the first half. That happened yesterday against Wake Forest, when he didn't score his first points until less than five minutes remained in the first half. Nevertheless, he got hot from there and ended up leading the Heels with 23 points.
The Heels need him to be hot and stay hot for all 40 minutes. Duke has the defensive length to bother Davis, but he's such a smart player that he can get his shot anyway. Hubert Davis should run some sets for him early in the hopes of getting him into a rhythm. If that happens, we could be looking at a vintage RJ performance when the Heels need it most.
Ian Jackson needs to rediscover his offensive game before it's too late
Ian Jackson might be the most talented player on UNC's roster. He's a five-star freshman that at times has looked like a future pro, but something is going on with him lately, because he's disappeared in the last three games.
Jackson has just 15 points in his last three, and more concerningly, his minutes are down in a big way. He played over 30 minutes per game for a long stretch of ACC play, but he's been under 20 in five of his last seven.
Part of the problem has been that Jackson has seemed unwilling to attack the basket with any regularity lately. He has the size and athleticism to be a great finisher, but he's been happier to shoot step-back threes instead. Committing turnovers when he has taken the ball to the lane has only made him more gun-shy.
When Elliot Cadeau is taking care of the ball, RJ Davis is getting space on the three-point line and Ian Jackson is attacking the basket, the Heels are very tough to stop. They need their talented freshman to remember who he is.