3 ways the Luka Doncic trade can blow up on the Lakers

Luka Doncic is a Los Angeles Laker. Typing those words even five days ago would have resulted in my immediate psychiatric evaluation, but somehow, it's true. The Lakers and Dallas Mavericks pulled off the most shocking trade of all-time this weekend, nearly breaking the internet in the process, and now Anthony Davis is with Kyrie Irving and Doncic is with LeBron James. The NBA is a crazy place.

Nearly everyone that has chimed in on the deal has called it an overwhelming win for the Lakers, with only a few notable exceptions (I see you, Kendrick Perkins). On the surface, it's easy to see why. Doncic is six years younger than Davis, and he plays a position that typically ages better. He's easily a top-five player in the league right now, and should continue to be for the next seven years at least. Davis is fantastic too, but he probably ranks in the 10-12 range.

Each team's respective fanbases are certainly treating the trade as a Lakers win. There are about to be more purple and gold No. 77 jerseys than you can shake a stick at, while meanwhile Mavericks fans brought a coffin to the American Airlines Center while eulogizing the "Luka era" with Wiz Khalifa's See You Again.

NBA history shows us that we shouldn't be so quick to declare the winners of a trade. The Paul George deal that sent a young Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a Los Angeles Clipper ship full of first-round picks to the Oklahoma Thunder certainly qualifies as one trade that backfired spectacularly on the supposed winner. Not only did the Clippers never even reach the NBA Finals, the haul they gave up has transformed OKC into the top team in the league. The Nets' acquisition of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce from the Boston Celtics in 2013 also bears mentioning, even if it was a bit easier to see at the time how that one could come back to bite Brooklyn.

The moral of the story is to not count your chickens yet, Lakers fans. Doncic could win four titles over the next decade while claiming a spot on basketball's Mt. Rushmore, but there are scenarios where not ony does that not happen, but the Mavs walk away looking like the winners. Are these likely? That's for you to decide, but they're definitely possible.

Lakers nightmare scenario No. 1: Luka Doncic can't stay healthy

Part of the reasons the Mavericks traded Doncic is over concerns over his conditioning, and to be fair, he's not exactly the kind of guy that's going to be turning heads down on Venice Beach with his shirt off. Run-and-jump athleticism is not the name of his game, instead he relies on physicality, the ability to create space and a basketball IQ that few others in the world can match.

Doncic's conditioning has been a constant source of critique throughout his career. The self-professed lover of sweet tea famously had a beer taken out of his hand after last year's Western Conference Finals win by Mavs assistant general manager Michael Finley, and though he's never missed truly significant time with an injury until this year (he's played in only 22 of the Mavs' 50 games due mostly to a calf strain), he's also played more than 66 games just twice before. He's not exactly Mikal Bridges when it comes to availability.

Dallas was reportedly reticent to commit a $345 million supermax contract to Doncic next summer because of his fitness concerns. I tend to fall into the camp that believes that Doncic will use this insult as motivation to get in the best shape of his career and destroy the Mavericks every chance he can, but we've also seen guys like Zion Williamson and Joel Embiid get labeled as poor workers and do nothing to ever change that narrative. A tiger rarely changes his stripes, and now the Pelicans and 76ers are filled with massive regret over signing these guys for huge money long-term.

Calf strains in particular are difficult to shake, and they can lead to an Achilles tear if a player comes back too soon. We saw that with Kevin Durant on the Warriors. If Doncic comes back this year and tears his Achilles, causing him to miss the rest of this season and most if not all of next, this trade will look very different.

Lakers nightmare scenario No. 2: Luka Doncic walks away when he hits free agency

Doncic's contract is up next summer, and though few if any top players have ever voluntarily left the Lakers in free agency, there's always the chance that he could forego his player option and/or a long-term extension in order to reclaim the autonomy that the Mavs stole from him when they traded him away.

It's been reported that Doncic is losing nine figures off of his next potential contract by being traded, not to mention that he left a state with no income tax for the one with the highest. He also closed on a $15 million house about a week ago in Dallas and is said to have cried when he was traded. He hasn't shown much interest in being in the spotlight off the basketball court. How will he react to being in L.A. surrounded by celebrities and paparazzi?

There are also basketball reasons that things could potentially go south. JJ Redick has done a very good job in his first year as Lakers head coach, but he's still new to this. He used to be teammates with Doncic in Dallas. Will they be able to see eye-to-eye now that their relationship dynamic has changed? What about how Doncic and James mesh? James was deferential to Davis, calling him the best player on the team. Will he show the 25-year-old Doncic the same level of respect?

If LeBron retires in a year or two, Doncic will also need to make a decision on whether he can win with the Lakers or if there's a better spot elsewhere. Things move fast in the NBA. For all we know Doncic and Giannis could team up in Chicago or who knows where in a couple of years.

Lakers nightmare scenario No. 3: Luka Doncic has already hit his peak and never brings a title to L.A.

What if Dallas is right and defense does win championships? Doncic has never been regarded as much of a defender, and the Lakers have work to do to put pieces around him that can prop him up at that end of the court. Will a team centered around Doncic be able to overcome the defensive juggernaut that is only continuing to improve in Oklahoma City? How about the Spurs and Wemby? They just made a huge splash of their own by acquiring De'Aaron Fox.

The NBA is deeper than it ever has been, and being one of the top-three players in the game does not guarantee rings. Even last year's run by Doncic and the Mavs, though hugely impressive, can be picked apart. Let's talk about it.

In Round 1, the Mavs beat the Clippers in six. Kawhi Leonard played only two games for L.A. as he continued to deal with a knee injury. Next up were the 1-seeded Thunder, and while knocking off the top seed is incredible no matter which way you cut it, the fact remains that this was OKC's first playoff experience with their young core. Even teams that eventually go on to greatness don't do it on their first try.

In the Western Conference Finals, it can be argued that the Wolves, who themselves had never made it out of the first round with the Anthony Edwards/Karl-Anthony Towns/Rudy Gobert group prior to their run, were just happy to be there after knocking off the defending champion Nuggets a round earlier. In the Finals, Dallas came up against the Celtics, an actual juggernaut, and got blitzed in five games as Doncic was relentlessly targeted on defense.

Doncic is 25, so odds are he hasn't yet played his best basketball. Guys like Giannis, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum all leveled up after this point in their careers, and as one of the best players in the game, he probably will, too. If that happens, the Lakers will unequivocally win this trade. If conditioning keeps him from staying on the court, he leaves L.A. on his own or we've already seen his peak though, Lakers fans will regret celebrating too early.