4 Blue Jays most to blame for failing to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from free agency

The moment that every Toronto Blue Jays fan was afraid of has come to pass: Spring training is here, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems bound for free agency after failing to sign a long-term extension ahead of his self-imposed deadline.

It's hard to overstate just how dramatic a failure this is for Toronto. Despite all that had gone wrong for this franchise over the last two or three years, Guerrero Jr. was the lone bright spot, a homegrown star still just entering his prime who seemingly loved playing in Canada. Now, that homegrown star is almost certainly destined to be wearing another uniform by this time next year, if not sooner, while the Jays are left to pick up the pieces of a roster that doesn't seem to be headed anywhere significant any time soon.

Of course, mistakes like this don't happen in a vacuum, or overnight. On one of the darkest days in recent Blue Jays history, there's a lot of blame to go around.

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4. Steve Cohen

In hindsight, it's hard not to look back at the $765 million deal Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets in December and feel as though the writing was already on the wall. No, Guerrero Jr. won't expect or receive that sort of money next winter; he doesn't quite have Soto's track record, and no matter how badly he might still want to think himself as a third baseman, he figures to be confined exclusively to first base or DHing moving forward.

But the Soto sweepstakes did offer Vladdy a glimpse at what hitting the free market might offer, and how much it values an elite hitter still just entering his prime (like Soto, Guerrero Jr. will be 26 when he becomes a free agent, far younger than most hitters in next year's class). He's also smart enough to know that teams like the Mets and the New York Yankees will be competing for his services, and that Cohen can take a player's market to places previously thought impossible. Under baseball's old paradigm, Guerrero Jr. may have set his sights a bit lower; now, though, he has every reason to set his own number and force the Blue Jays to match or exceed it.

3. Bo Bichette

This time last year, you could have reasonably argued that Guerrero Jr. wasn't even the most important 2026 free agent on his own team. Bichette was coming off a second All-Star campaign in three years, earning some down-ballot MVP consideration in 2023 after slashing .306/.339/.475 (122 OPS+) and accruing 4.9 bWAR. He seemed primed to deliver a .300 average, 20-25 homers and rock-solid defense at a premium position for the better part of the next decade.

And then everything fell apart. Bichette slogged through a disastrous, injury-plagued campaign last season, and it came at the worst possible time — both for himself and for the Blue Jays. Toronto was understandably wary about committing to Bichette for the long haul, leaving his future as Guerrero Jr.'s running mate in doubt. It's clear that Guerrero Jr. has his sights set on playing for a contender, and Bichette's collapse in 2024 made it far harder for Toronto to convince him that they fit the bill.

2. Rogers Communications

Of course, none of that may have mattered if the Blue Jays were simply willing to meet Guerrero Jr. at his asking price. For years now, Vladdy has made clear that he loved playing in Toronto and wanted to spend his career there; he's a Canadian citizen whose father is already baseball royalty in the country, and the Jays are the only professional organization he's ever known. It stands to reason that, if the team had ponied up appropriately — i.e., matched what the market was likely to bear next winter — they could've avoided this catastrophe entirely.

And yet, despite public protestations that Guerrero Jr. was the first, second and third priorities this offseason, it never seemed like he and the Jays could see eye-to-eye regarding his value. Which is baffling, considering Vladdy's importance to this franchise both on the field and off, and should have fans furious at the lack of commitment from ownership. Rogers was willing to make a significant exception in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani last winter, and they at least earned a seat at the table in the Soto sweepstakes this offseason. But they weren't willing to go even half that far for their own homegrown star?

Rogers has long shown a stubborn refusal to get a little bit irrational when it comes to free agency; and if we've learned one thing in recent years, it's that being rational is a good way to always finish second or third for the players you want. Guerrero Jr. seemed like the perfect time to break that rule, but instead they showed him the door.

1. Mark Shapiro (and Ross Atkins)

How could it be anybody else? Shapiro and Atkins were likely the ones in ownership's ear, showing them how much their models thought Guerrero Jr. would be worth moving forward. And it was definitely Shapiro and Atkins who put flawed roster after flawed roster around Vladdy, never winning so much as a single postseason series during his time in the Majors.

A disastrous 2024 season forced Shapiro and Atkins to put all their chips on hitting big this offseason. And yet once again, they struck out, never coming particularly close to landing targets like Soto, Corbin Burnes or Alex Bregman and coming away with players like Anthony Santander and Max Scherzer who are nice but hardly enough to get Toronto past the likes of the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. Looking back at the last few years, it's hard to blame Guerrero Jr. for wanting a fresh start, especially considering how stubborn the front office proved to be once it came time to negotiate.