I think Paige Bueckers will win WNBA Rookie of the Year. In fact, I don't think it's even going to be close. She's the best player in this draft class and has an instant starting role on a playoff contender, where she'll star beside Arike Ogunbowale in one of the league's projected top-scoring backcourts.
But anything could happen once the season tips off. Bueckers could struggle to adapt to the speed and size of the pro game. She could deal with injury issues. Or someone else could just surprisingly break out.
But if Bueckers doesn't run away with the award, who are the top threats to take it from her? Here are four other players with a chance at Rookie of the Year.
Dominique Malonga - Seattle Storm
If there's a player in this class with the long-term upside to be better than Bueckers, it's French teenager Dominique Malonga, the No. 2 overall pick.
Malonga is still young and will have to prove she's ready to compete at the highest level, but the fact that she just had a really strong year in the French league suggests that she's up for that. She's an uber-athletic big who impacts the game vertically, but she'll need to up her aggressiveness in the WNBA and avoid settling for tough shots. She also has to work on her interior defense. Still, the talent is there for her to make a run at the award.
One thing that will impact Malonga's chances of beating out Bueckers is that she appears set to play for France in EuroBasket, which means she'll be off to Europe in June for a few weeks. Even if she's gone for as little time as possible, every game matters in the awards chase.
Kiki Iriafen - Washington Mystics
The Mystics added three rookies in the first six picks of the WNBA Draft. Of the three, Kiki Iriafen has the most complicated path to minutes, but also is the player with a ceiling that's high enough for her to break out and force her way into the Rookie of the Year discussion.
Iriafen has all the talent in the world. She's an athletic big who can shoot and defend all the way out to the 3-point line...at least, she was that at Stanford, but in her one season at USC, she posted a career-low field goal percentage. She'll need to prove she can hit midrange jumpers consistently and work on her post defense, but Iriafen definitely has the talent to take over games.
The big rotation in Washington is a bit of a mess, but theoretically, the team could go ultra-big at times if Iriafen can quickly develop a 3-point shot. A lineup with her, Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards all on the floor at once could be a spacing nightmare, but it can also be a way of getting Washington's best players on the floor at once.
Aneesah Morrow - Connecticut Sun
Aneesah Morrow has plenty of issues to work on at the pro level, but the complete dearth of talent in Connecticut means she should have ample opportunities to work through those issues on the court.
Morrow will likely start at the four for the Sun, though with her size, you'd ideally like to play her at the three. For that to work, she has to improve her scoring range; otherwise, she's an undersized four who might struggle to make a long-term impact in the league.
But Rookie of the Year isn't about long-term impact. It's about taking advantage of opportunities. Morrow might not be a WNBA starter two years from now, but the construction of this Connecticut roster means she will be this year and that she'll likely be the No. 3 scoring option on a bad team. It's not impossible that the Sun trade Tina Charles or Marina Mabrey by the trade deadline, handing even more scoring opportunities to Morrow. She has a good shot to lead rookies in points per game simply because someone has to shoot the ball in Uncasville this season.
Sarah Ashlee Barker - Los Angeles Sparks
Okay, hear me out here. I know your first thought when I proposed Sarah Ashlee Barker as a Rookie of the Year contender was that I just desperately needed a fourth name that was a surprise long shot. It'd be boring if I just mentioned another of the Mystics trio, and Justė Jocytė probably won't be over from Europe until later in the summer, so I just had to go with the shock factor.
But that's not it, even if in the process of typing all of that out, I almost convinced myself that it was.
No, I have Barker here because I'm really distrustful of the depth in the Sparks backcourt and I think she can make a pretty quick impact on the team.
Barker's a baller, plain and simple. She's someone who never stops pushing, the kind of do-it-all talent who works perfectly as a role player and who, at times, can step up and take over as a primary scorer.
The Sparks have Kelsey Plum in the backcourt, but most of their other scoring will come up in the frontcourt with Rickea Jackson, Azura Stevens and Dearica Hamby. The point guard rotation of Aari McDonald and Odyssey Sims is questionable, so it's not impossible that we see the team shift Plum to the one and use Barker extensively at shooting guard. That probably won't be enough to mount a serious challenge for Rookie of the Year, but it could definitely be enough for her to battle for a spot on the All-Rookie team.