The Whiteboard: How 40 seconds may have cost the Bucks their future with Giannis

Too often in the NBA, we are too quick to eulogize a playoff loser before celebrating a winner. I don’t want to do that here. That comeback by the Indiana Pacers was bananas! 

Did they need to come back from down seven with 40 seconds left to beat the Milwaukee Bucks and advance to the next round? No. They would have had two more chances to beat a clearly inferior team had they just let the Bucks have their death rattle.

Instead, Andrew Nembhard hit a pull-up 3, and the Pacers pounced on a pair of Gary Trent Jr. turnovers that led to six Tyrese Haliburton points, including the game-winning layup with 1.3 seconds left after Trent’s Buckner moment.

It all happened so quickly that you have to zoom in on the game-flow chart to even see that Indiana came out on top.

Here’s a quick recap of what happened, in case you missed it.

The immediate aftermath is clouded by a made-for-Bravo feud between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Haliburton’s father, John, that involves a towel and a 4-minute soliloquy on the role of parents in the NBA. (Personally, I’m more invested in the emotional rollercoaster of Trent riding high with four made 3s in overtime to two costly turnovers in the final 29 seconds.)

Giannis' future is among the biggest questions of the NBA offseason

But as the Pacers advance to the next round against the Cleveland Cavaliers (the Pacers are really good, they'll have a chance!), the focus in Milwaukee will shift to Giannis’ future. 

There have been plenty of missteps in Milwaukee’s handling of the roster since the 2021 championship, but the Bucks deserve credit for trying. They paid the tax and invested in the team, and made the all-in-kind of trades that fans and media demand franchises make when employing a once-in-a-generation star in his prime.

But those moves – and Damian Lillard’s unfortunate Achilles tear – also leave the Bucks without any outs. And now they might be forced to trade Giannis.

Lillard’s injury takes Milwaukee’s only pivot piece off the table. They don’t have good young players or draft assets, and their two best role players, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, are free agents. Kyle Kuzma isn’t fetching anything notable in return. A look at Milwaukee’s roster and asset cache makes you realize that they’ve been doing “One red paperclip” in reverse.

A week ago, trading Lillard seemed like the only play. It’s fair to wonder what the Bucks could have gotten back for Lillard this summer, but it would have been something. 

Now? Nobody is trading for a 35-year-old coming off a career-altering injury who will be 36 and making $58 million when he’s expected to return.

The Bucks are toast. Giannis is still good enough to carry them to the first round of the playoffs, but that’s as far as these Bucks can go as they look up at the Celtics, Cavaliers, Knicks and Pacers. 

Giannis could ask for a trade, or GM Jon Horst – newly signed to a contract extension - could make the conclusion himself. Either way, it’s not hard to imagine both sides working together to find a new home where Giannis can compete for championships and help the Bucks kickstart a rebuild.

The problem with rebuilding is that Milwaukee doesn’t control any of its picks from now to 2030. Its 2026 pick is controlled by the Pelicans via pick swap. 

So the Bucks can trade Giannis and try to remain competitive, or trade him and try to regain control of their draft. As The Athletic’s John Hollinger pointed out, involving the Pelicans in a deal could help salvage a rebuild these next two years:

“This was the genius of the Brooklyn Nets reacquiring their own picks in the June 2024 Mikal Bridges trade, even if the Nets had to overpay Houston to do it: It gave them free rein to embrace a full-on tank. Milwaukee could pursue a similar plan only by trading with the New Orleans Pelicans to get back their 2026 pick swap and the top-four portion of its 2027 unprotected first. However, the “fifth through 30th” piece has already been sent to Atlanta.”

Rather than look at Brooklyn, Milwaukee’s best path forward might look more similar to what Oklahoma City did in 2019, when it traded Paul George to the LA Clippers for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and picks. Those picks weren’t anything special, but Gilgeous-Alexander was. 

This goes without saying, but Giannis is the kind of player that would force Houston (with Amen Thompson), San Antonio (Stephon Castle), Toronto (Scottie Barnes) or a team in this year’s lottery to consider parting with a blue-chipper.

While the Pacers’ focus shifts to the Cavs, the 17 other teams that are no longer playing will be monitoring what happens in Milwaukee.

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NBA news roundup

• Cade Cunningham had 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists to lead the Pistons to a win over the Knicks to avoid elimination and send the series back to Detroit for a Game 6.
• The Boston Celtics — led by Jayson Tatum’s 35 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds — beat the Orlando Magic to advance to the next round, where they will face the winner of Knicks-Pistons.
• Jamal Murray’s 43 points (8 of 14 on 3s) lifted the Nuggets to a Game 5 win over the Clippers to take a 3-2 advantage in the series. 

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