All not lost: How the 49ers can still make the NFL Playoffs

Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers have spent years falling just inches short of the franchise’s sixth Lombardi Trophy. The Niners have made four NFC Championship Game appearances in the past five years. In the two times they advanced to the Super Bowl, they were unable to hold onto a lead in the fourth quarter or overtime.

After San Francisco lost Super Bowl LIV, they were unable to defend their NFC title in the following season. The roster was riddled with injuries during the 2020 season, and the Niners missed the playoffs with a 6-10 record. In 2024, the Niners appear to be succumbing to the infamous Super Bowl hangover once again. 

Although teams that lose the Super Bowl rarely ever make it back to the big game in the following season, they usually still manage to make it to the playoffs. Forty of the 57 teams to lose the Super Bowl have made it back to the playoffs in the following season, per NBC Connecticut.

The Niners currently hold a 5-6 record, but an unusually weak division has kept them alive in the postseason hunt. San Francisco currently has a 16 percent playoff probability, per NFL Next Gen Stats. 

How the 49ers can still make the playoffs

Their best path to the playoffs is through capturing the NFC West crown, but it won’t be easy. The Seattle Seahawks currently lead the division with a 6-5 record, narrowly edging out the Arizona Cardinals due to tiebreakers.

Even if the 49ers win all six of their remaining games, they could still lose the division to the Cardinals or Seahawks because of their divisional record. Although San Francisco is just one game behind Seattle and Arizona, they have already suffered losses against all three of their divisional foes. The Niners split their two matchups with the Seahawks and still have two divisional games left. 

The Niners will need a few things to go their way to win the NFC West title. They can improve to a 3-3 divisional record with a win against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15 and a win against the Cardinals in Week 18. That still may not be enough, however. All three division rivals have won two divisional games each, and only Seattle has lost more than one divisional game.

The most ideal situation would be for the Cardinals to defeat the Seahawks.

Luckily for San Francisco, the Seahawks and Cardinals will face off in Week 14, which means at least one of them is guaranteed another loss. That game will be crucial in determining the Niners’ divisional chances. If the winner of that game loses to the Rams, the 49ers could control their own destiny. 

If Seattle defeats Arizona, the 49ers would need the Rams to defeat the Seahawks in Week 18. Even if the Seahawks win the rest of their games, San Francisco would win the divisional tiebreaker over Seattle due to strength of victory.

If the Cardinals defeat the Seahawks, San Francisco would also need the Rams to defeat the Cardinals in Week 17. Since the 49ers still have a game against the Cardinals in Week 18, that would allow them to ensure both Seattle and Arizona suffer at least one more loss each. A win against Arizona in Week 18 would elevate San Francisco to a division title over Seattle due to tiebreakers.

If the Niners don’t win all of their remaining games or if the Rams lose to the winner of Cardinals and Seahawks game, the path to a Wild Card spot could get tricky. The NFC North division has been a powerhouse, and both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings could edge out the Niners in most scenarios.