5 bold predictions for anticipated Steelers vs. Eagles matchup in Week 15

The Philadelphia Eagles hold the edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Week 15 matchup of two teams from separate conferences vying for ideal playoff positioning. George Pickens’ prolonged absence has shrunk their margin for error and the oddsmakers have been listening. Conversely, the Eagles roll into town as a bizarro version of the Steelers. Frustrations between their quarterback and No. 1 receiver have created a rift. Meanwhile, their franchise back, Saquon Barkley, is having a generational MVP-caliber season. That’s in stark contrast to the vibes in Pittsburgh which is ecstatic to have a transition candidate at quarterback who’s here for a good time, but maybe not a long time while their star tailback blinks out of existence for whole Sundays at a time. But vibes don’t dictate matchups.

Here are five bold predictions for Sunday’s matchup.

Russell Wilson outduels Jalen Hurts

2024 Jalen Hurts is very different from 2022 Jalen Hurts. As the catalyst for the Eagles' most recent Super Bowl run, he transformed into the engine for the league’s most fearsome deep passing attack. En route to the Super Bowl, Hurts and A.J. Brown lit up the skies for 1500 yards and 11 touchdowns. This year, Brown is falling well short of the standard he’s set as an Eagle. Instead, the passing offense is bottoming out as the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing attack and Hurts hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards through the air since Nov. 14 against Washington.

The Steelers’ edge rushers will give Jalen Hurts fits. With a healthy Alex Highsmith on the field, the Steelers have a 39.5 percent pressure rate on the year, which would be second in the league according to Sharp Football Analysis. Under pressure this season, Hurts has completed 46.1 percent of his passes, 21st in the league, for 5.1 yards per attempt (29th). Tight end Dallas Goedert is out this week and their receivers sound like shareholders frustrated with the productivity in the passing game despite an 11-2 record.

The Steelers have experienced offensive outages of their own, however. Russell Wilson tends to unleash his patented moonballs in the second half. T.J. Watt rushing the edge against Lane Johnson is the premier matchup of the week Hurts will have to worry about, while Wilson’s pressure will stem from Milton Williams and Jalen Carter inside. Their big pass-rushing acquisition Bryce Huff has just four quarterback hits and 2.5 sacks out of Huff in 10 games.

Saquon Barkley gets held below 100 yards

Eagles are the No. 1 rushing offense and more closely resemble what the Ravens were supposed to with Derrick Henry. Hurts has scored 13 rushing touchdowns, equalling him with Derrick Henry for the league lead.

Saquon Barkley broke LeSean McCoy's single-season rushing record and has stolen Henry’s midseason MVP thunder. The last time Barkley played the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger rushed for more yards. Barkley has gained over 100 yards nine times this season and in four consecutive games.

The Steelers' run defense has been laying spike strips in the path of opposing running backs all season. Watt’s pass-rushing acumen is the headliner, but he’s also been a constant disruptor against the ground game. The last time Barkley played the Steelers, he was outgained by Roethlisberger. That’s unlikely to happen behind this Eagles offensive line. However, Pittsburgh did exemplary work containing Lamar Jackson and Henry in Week 12 and there’s no reason to think they can’t do the same again. 

Steelers defense forces at least two takeaways

The Steelers' defense is one of the most advantageous in the league when opposing teams make mistakes. Since their bye week, they’ve taken it up another level, recording at least three turnovers in their last four games. That streak has now put them in a tie for the league-wide lead in takeaways. 

Meanwhile, Hurts has cut down his turnovers from a 2023 season in which he threw the third-most interceptions in the league trying to keep pace with a defense that was giving touchdowns away for charity. This season, he’s mitigated those mistakes by throwing conservatively. If the run game gets hogtied by Watt, Cam Heyward, and Co., Hurts can be pressured into errors.

The Steelers win if this is a low-scoring affair

The Steelers' best outcomes occur when they control the clock. Vic Fangio’s Eagles defense allows the fewest yards per game while the Steelers are No. 1 in takeaways. Both quarterbacks will be under duress. Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams has generated a 14.4 percent pressure rate this season, the highest among defensive tackles with at least 150 pass rushes, according to NextGenStats.

Conversely, Heyward ranks second on the Steelers in sacks. Barkley will carry the load for Philadelphia this week and he’ll chew up the clock. To a lesser extent, the Steelers will lean on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The over-under is 42.5. If it stays below that, it means Pittsburgh has been dictating the play and can squeeze out a W. Over 42.5 signals that the Eagles' offense hit their daily fitness goal of 10,000 steps marching up and down the field.

Justin Fields’ packages will re-emerge

Fields collected dust on the bench last weekend and played only two snaps against the Bengals. Given the absence of Pickens, this matchup will rest on the Steelers' play-calling ingenuity in the red zone. For the next few weeks, they won’t be able to rely on Pickens’ body control adjusting for Wilson’s teardrop passes 20+ yards downfield. The Steelers receiving corps will be severely understaffed. Najee Harris doesn’t have the run blocking to consistently gain positive yardage. Fields offers a wrinkle that a majority of quarterbacks can’t access athletically. If there was ever a week to break out all the gimmicks and gadget plays, it would be this one.