5 bold predictions for Steelers vs. Jets: TJ Watt plants Aaron Rodgers to the turf

The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will clash on Sunday, and to us, it's a matchup of stability vs. volatility. In many respects, the Steelers are what the Jets could be if they had a stable ownership regulating the egos of their star players. New York's organizational hierarchy is a whodunit mystery. Joe Douglas has been general manager for six seasons, but he’s been taking direction from Aaron Rodgers for the past two, and his contract is set to expire in early 2025. 

Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich replaced Rodgers’ lickspittle Nathaniel Hackett’s play-calling duties with Todd Downing, but Hackett retained his title because the team answers to Rodgers. Now, the Davante Adams-Rodgers reunion will be a challenge for the Steelers' secondary. But while they may have their moments, rustiness after a five-year separation doesn’t get shaken off in five days.

As for the Steelers, they're wrestling in the mud with New York this week. As of Friday, Mike Tomlin has not named an official starter, but he’s left behind a trail of clues. Here are a few bold predictions to look out for based on what we know.

If Russell Wilson makes his first start for the Pittsburgh Steelers ...

Surprisingly, Wilson is taking most of the first-team snaps, and most of the comments escaping the Steelers locker room make us assume that Wilson is the presumptive starter for Sunday. George Pickens is getting extra work in with Wilson, and Tomlin’s praise for Rodgers could easily be seen as praise for Wilson.

“You better carry enough defense, you better have enough types of defense, you better pressure him, you better play man, you better play zone, you better bogus pressure him," said Tomlin. "You better tie it all together with good pre-snap looks. You better make him read things out post-snap. That's what you do when you play a guy of his caliber.”

Tomlin wants to field a quarterback who can measure up with a proficient aerial attack. In six weeks, Fields demonstrated a natural survival instinct and a penchant for doing just enough to keep the Steelers afloat. The hope is that Fields ran so that Wilson can soar. Unless this week was a smokescreen for the Jets, Russ appears to be the guy. 

Russell Wilson will not throw multiple touchdown passes

In recent years, Mike Tomlin has been an offensive minimalist who doesn’t deploy high-flying passing attacks. Fields connected with receivers in the end zone multiple times in one game only once this season, when he threw two touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night in Week 5. The expectation is that Wilson will improve their red zone efficiency.

By comparison, Wilson threw for multiple touchdowns in a game, in eight starts during his tumultuous final season as a Bronco. Unfortunately, he's running out of the tunnel in Week 7 into an unfavorable matchup. Led by Sauce Gardner, the Jets are the league’s stingiest defense, allowing the second-fewest touchdown passes this season. The Jets will be missing starting corners D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and safety Chuck Clark, but they still gave Josh Allen fits on Monday Night Football.

Najee Harris will rush for more yards than Breece Hall

Opposing secondaries picked up on Fields’ unwillingness to challenge them deep. With Wilson under center, defenses will be compelled to throw more double safety-high looks at the Steelers. With fewer bodies in the box, Harris should get the blocking he needs to reach the line of scrimmage without making contact.

Harris looked rejuvenated last week against the Raiders, and despite Quinnen Williams’ presence along the interior, the Jets rushing defense is 17th in yards allowed, surrendering 112 yards per game. Losing Zach Frazier hurts, but they managed to make do a week ago once he was injured.

If Justin Fields starts for the Pittsburgh Steelers ...

Justin Fields will throw for fewer than 200 yards and lead the Steelers in rushing

In just two of his appearances as a Steeler, Fields has thrown for more than 200 yards. Don’t expect that number to tick up against the Jets. The Jets’ third-ranked passing defense has put opposing passing attacks in the blender despite lacking a consistent pass rush. He will lead the Steelers in rushing unless Najee Harris breaks through.

The Jets secondary has laid the clamps on every opponent they’ve faced so far. So if Justin Fields is going to make a difference for Pittsburgh, it’ll likely be with his legs. New York’s pass rush will flush Fields out of the pocket, but his athleticism should allow him to extend plays with his legs. Without downfield passing though, Fields might be better off using his legs to generate needed yards.

Breece Hall rushes for fewer than 100 yards 

New offensive play caller Todd Downing made his bones as the coordinator for the Titans offense in 2021 and 2022, centered around Derrick Henry. He appears invested in creating a similar dynamic with Breece Hall.

After Rodgers dropped back on 57-of-71 plays, Hall emerged with a larger share of the offense in Week 6, earning 23 touches and more than 100 yards against the Bills. Neutralizing Hall on the ground will be a critical key to victory for the Steelers' defense.

Fortunately, Watt is one of the league’s top run defenders, as exemplified dramatically by his two punch-out fumbles last week in the win over Las Vegas. As a unit, the Steelers have given up their sixth-fewest yards, but they rank second in yards allowed per carry.

TJ Watt plants Aaron Rodgers into the turf at least once

Rodgers has been even more rickety against daunting pass rushes. To keep the heat off of their frail 40-year-old ex-MVP, they’ll have to rely on Hall giving it his all for a second consecutive week. That may not be a reliable option against the Steelers vaunted run defense.

Rodgers may have to win this one for New York from the pocket, and pass rushers have been licking their chops for a shot at Rodgers behind a porous offensive line. TJ Watt is the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, and what better chance to make his case than to stuff Rodgers into a locker by exploiting cracks in New York’s practically non-existent edge protection?