5 bold predictions for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59: Defense makes Patrick Mahomes human

After the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, the questions were: ‘What if Patrick Mahomes hadn’t been able to do whatever he wanted in the second half? What if the Eagles' defense had actually played football and had a real plan to stop him?’ Super Bowl LIX will answer those questions, and the fact that we will get answers is unbelievable. 

The Chiefs are largely the same as before and the Eagles have gotten better in almost every single area—which is crazy, considering they were already a powerhouse back then. This is as true of a Super Bowl rematch as we’re ever going to see.

When you talk about which team is going to be the World Champions, you get bold. When the stakes are this high, you get to sound crazy and no one can judge you. Those are the rules.

Don’t say, ‘I think this is a DeVonta Smith game.’ That’s lukewarm and stale. Jazz that bad boy up. Tell me, ‘I think DeVonta Smith scores on the last play of the first half.’ That’s a bold prediction. 

These are five bold predictions for Super Bowl LIX that go from relatively sane and plain, to premonition-adjacent and hyper-specific. 

5 bold predictions for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59

Not that bold prediction: The Eagles defense stops all of the Chiefs’ plays named after food. 

In the second half of Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs had four drives and they scored on every single one of them. It was hell; Jonathan Gannon didn’t have any answers for anything.

The Chiefs ended up scoring on the same play twice: it was the play they called, “Corn Dog.” That cannot happen. It’s wildly disrespectful to lose a Super Bowl because the other team's offense used a motion that reminds them of carnival food.

Vic Fangio is a good enough defensive coordinator where ridiculous plays that Andy Reid comes up with the week of the Super Bowl won’t be game-changers. 

The Eagles defense is playing too well for that kind of thing to happen. The Chiefs are going to have to play a perfect or near-perfect game to inch their way down the field. At some point, they try to hit an explosive on a play called ‘banana bread’ or ‘cake pop’ or ‘candied bacon sugar cookies’ or something dumb like that, and the Birds will sniff it out.

Decently Bold Prediction: Jordan Davis has a higher pressure rate than Jalen Carter

Both the Chiefs and the Eagles offense will try to take advantage of who the other team has or doesn’t have on the defensive line. 

When the Chiefs take Chris Jones off the field, you can expect to see the Eagles not sub any players in to make sure Jones stays off. He’s a certified game wrecker and the Eagles need to move the ball when he’s not playing. 

The Chiefs, on the other hand, are going to try to keep Jordan Davis on the field because he’s a much better run defender than he is a pass rusher. In a perfect world, Jordan comes off the field on passing downs and Milton Williams comes in to take his place. The Chiefs don’t want to let that happen.

Jordan can still get after the quarterback, especially when it’s early in a drive. On the Commanders' first drive out of halftime in the NFC Championship game, they ran the ball on first down and then didn’t sub anyone out on second down which kept Davis on the field. On second down, Jordan sacked Jayden Daniels for nine yards to force a third and long. He ended that game with a 10% pressure rate compared to Carter’s 8.75%.

Jordan won’t be able to do that kind of thing consistently, but it is still in his bag if he needs to do it. 

On top of that, Jalen Carter demands attention. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Chiefs try to handle his pass rush in this game because, for the most part, he’s going to be lined up over right guard Trey Smith with Milton Williams lined up over left guard Mike Caliendo.

Caliendo is worse than Smith, but Williams is also worse than Carter. Do the Chiefs slide protections over to Carter’s side to keep him out of the game, or do they slide it to William’s side and take their chances with Smith one-on-one with Carter?

Regardless, Jordan Davis needs to be able to get after the quarterback when he’s stuck on the field. If he can make plays in uncomfortable spots, this prediction will come true.

Pretty Bold Prediction: The Eagles get a rushing touchdown on a third-and-long

The Eagles have run the ball an NFL-leading 114 times on third downs. Four of those have been non-Brotherly Shove touchdowns, all by Saquon Barkley. He had a 19-yarder on a third-and-17, a 23-yarder on third-and-three, a 72-yarder on a third-and-six, and a 62-yarder on a third-and-four. It doesn’t matter what the yardage is, they’re more than fine with giving the ball to Barkley and letting him rip. 

The Eagles have an opportunity to expose the Chiefs and their defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo because his whole thing is that he likes to try to confuse quarterbacks with blitzes and weird-looking pressures. 

If the Eagles know the Chiefs are going to come after Hurts on a third down, they have the talent at running back and offensive line, and the versatility in their run schemes to run the ball into that would-be-pressure and get Saquon into the open field. 

We know Barkley can break a 50+ yard run at any moment, but there will be specific opportunities to do that when Spagnuolo comes after Hurts. If they think you’re going to zig, zag them in the mouth. If they think you’re going to dink, then dunk right in their face.

A benefit of hitting one of these early is that it could make Spagnuolo think twice about the crazy pressures on the next third down.

Really Bold Prediction: Patrick Mahomes looks human

Can Patrick Mahomes make plays that other quarterbacks can’t? Yes. Does he struggle the same way other quarterbacks struggle? Also yes. He’s just another guy who plays much worse when he has to hold onto the ball. 

If he can get it out quickly, he’ll look like a Super Bowl MVP. If he has to hold onto it for just a tick longer, the offense is incredibly boom-or-bust.

Per Next Gen Stats, when his time to throw is lower than 2.5 seconds, he has a passer rating of 110.2, a completion percentage of 83.6%, and he throws in tight windows 5.5% of the time. When he holds onto it for longer than 2.5 seconds, his passer rating drops to 76.8, his completion percentage drops to 55.1%, and he throws in tight windows 46.2% of the time.

If the defensive backs can be sticky at the snap and the pass rush can win fast, Mahomes will have to take time and things have a chance of being worse for them.

Obviously, the other side of that coin is that he can get into a scramble drill and hit his chunk throws to Travis Kelce. Those two are really good at winning when that’s the case. 

It feels like the Eagles are going to be incredibly cognizant of that. During his media availability on January 30th, Zach Baun was asked the difference between the way the Chiefs do scramble drills and how it’s different from other teams.

“Well, usually receivers will work across the field, or come back to the ball, or go deep as the quarterback’s rolling out of the pocket," said Baun. "Pat makes some crazy across-the-body throws where Travis is just sitting in the middle of the field waiting for them. It’s not traditional in any way.” (36:46 in the video below)

That sounds incredibly basic, but teams struggle against that exact thing every single week and the Chiefs have won Super Bowls based purely on that connection. It seems like that was one of the first things that Fangio made sure the linebackers knew going into this game.

I’m sure other teams have focused on that connection in other games, but those other teams didn’t have Vic Fangio and the best defense in the NFL.

The Eagles defensive line will win quickly and make Patrick hold onto the ball, and then the back end will hold up.

Boldest Prediction: The ending sequence

The Eagles are going to score with 2:25 left in the fourth quarter. Jake Elliott will miss the extra point and the score is 23-17, which is very important. Not only will that make it so the Chiefs win if they score, but also the Eagles are undefeated in postseason games where Elliott misses an extra point. 

Everyone will think that the game is over because that’s how it always happens with the Chiefs. When there’s not a whole lot of time left on the clock and Mahomes has the ball, he drives the field and wins. He doesn’t make mistakes in crunch time.

Unfortunately for him, the Eagles aren't relying on Mahomes to make mistakes. Other guys will do that. 

With 2:10 left, Mahomes will throw a screen pass to Xavier Worthy. Cooper DeJean will be there immediately to hold Worthy up so he can’t get out of bounds. Baun will come in and punch the ball out. For the final defensive play of his career, Darius Slay will recover that fumble and return it to the one-yard line.

The Eagles will end the game with the ball in their hands on the goal line, making sure the Chiefs know that it could’ve been a two-score game if Hurts wanted it to be.