5 college football teams that will be worse than you think in 2025

One thing that continually holds true in college football is last year was last year. Yes, there are teams with high ceilings, low floors and everything in between. There is not usually a ton of variance when it comes to the haves remaining haves and the have nots staying as such. However, there is a beautiful ebb and flow to the sport that I love so much that I find so incredibly encapsulating every offseason.

While College Football Playoff expansion has given us more or less what we think we want, it is not about getting more teams in who can realistically win the tournament, but rather providing a new group of competitors with a shot in the dark. At the end of the day, the Ohio States and the Georgias are better equipped to run the gauntlet than most other programs who do not compete on their level.

That is why in part two of my two part series for the day, I am going to rattle off five teams that I think are prime pullback candidates in 2025. Admittedly, I could be wrong about any and all of them. I just have a strong feeling that what we saw out of these teams a year ago may not be rivaled by what their team fields this year. There is a chance one or more could be better, but I would not count on this yet.

Let's start with everyone's favorite Big Ten team from last year who is not sneaking up on a soul now!

5. Indiana Hoosiers

I go back and forth on how I feel about the Indiana Hoosiers heading into next season. Curt Cignetti is a fantastic head coach and Fernando Mendoza was such a tremendous pickup in the transfer portal out of Cal. However, the Hoosiers did navigate an incredibly soft Big Ten schedule last fall. Anytime they played someone of quality, they came up short. They also no longer have the threat of surprise.

To me, I think the gap between the third best team in the Big Ten and the fourth is massive for this season. It could be Indiana again, but there are teams like Illinois, Michigan and Nebraska ready to take Indiana's seat at the table. Again, Mendoza partnering up with Cignetti intrigues me, but Indiana will lose a lot of players off last year's team to the NFL. They will win around eight games, but not 11.

Indiana is still a College Football Playoff contender, but the Hoosiers are on the outside looking in.

4. SMU Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs check many of the same boxes of concerns I have with Indiana. Do I think they are going to fall off a cliff precipitously this season? No, they have good players, an excellent head coach in Rhett Lashlee and one of the most fun quarterbacks in college football in Kevin Jennings. However, SMU played a soft ACC schedule last year and caught many of its opponents by surprise.

My concern about the Ponies making it back to the playoff is the ACC may only get two teams in again next year. Clemson feels like a borderline lock to get in, either winning the league again or getting in as an at-large. Where does that leave SMU? Probably in the same group of teams with Georgia Tech, Louisville and Miami vying for other non-Clemson spot. I like Louisville the most.

SMU proved seemingly everyone wrong last season, but they need to pony up to level up in 2025.

3. Ole Miss Rebels

This is the first one that feels very obvious. 2024 was supposed to be the year where the Ole Miss Rebels made the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. Instead, they went 9-3 overall and 5-3 in conference play with losses to Florida, Kentucky and LSU. Ole Miss is losing so much to the NFL Draft, including quarterback Jaxson Dart and defensive line transfer Walter Nolen after one season.

With the SEC schedule flipping, everyone that Ole Miss lost to last year is back on the table again. Florida looks to be much improved and LSU is a contender in the SEC. As far as who they beat, they have to play Georgia in Athens and still have to take on a very formidable South Carolina team. The record may not say they will be that much worse than 9-3, but this team is not sniffing the playoff.

Once again, we will see the limitations of the Ole Miss job, as well as Lane Kiffin as a head coach.

2. Boise State Broncos

This feels mean, but count me out on the Boise State Broncos winning the Group of Five again next year. They could win the Mountain West for the third year in a row, but that league feels weak. Colorado State is probably their biggest competition, but Boise State no longer has Ashton Jeanty to hand the ball off to. Plus, Dirk Koetter has stepped aside from being their offensive coordinator, too.

Admittedly, I do like the growth I have seen out of Maddux Madsen as a quarterback and Spencer Danielson as an emerging star head coach in the college game. I just think there are going to be other better Group of Five teams out there to be had next year. My pick is Miami (OH) because they landed former Toledo star Dequan Finn out of Baylor in the transfer portal. Boise State will be ... Boise State.

This team could win 10 games next season, but the Group of Five winner goes to 11 like Spinal Tap.

1. Colorado Buffaloes

It will be interesting to see how the Colorado Buffaloes bounce back after their best season in ages. CU was a playoff contender down to the wire, but a 9-3 finish left the Buffs on the outside looking in at Arlington. Deion Sanders' team proved a lot of doubters wrong. I will give them that. However, even if his staff is keen on player development, the Buffaloes are losing too much juice to the NFL Draft.

Even if I like Kaidon Salter coming over from Liberty more than most, he is not Shedeur Sanders at quarterback. More importantly, their former Mr. Everything in last year's Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter is also gone. No, I do not think Colorado drops a few quartiles in the new Big 12 pecking order, but this will not be the year Coach Prime gets to see one his players raise a WWE belt in Jerryworld.

Colorado will go to a bowl game, but going 9-3 again should be about as good as it gets for them.