5 early Cinderella candidates for March Madness: St. John's, New Mexico and more

Where are my college hoopheads at? Who else just stayed up past one o'clock in the morning to hear Caleb Wilson's school announcement live on Inside the NBA? I know you're out there. I know I'm not alone.

There are college basketball fans, and then there are the true sickos. The former group knows all about Cooper Flagg and Danny Hurley and even Grant Nelson's mustache. The latter group cancels plans with friends to stay in and watch a Mountain West-Big Sky doubleheader. They're just built different, and this piece goes out to them.

Neoclassical poet John Pope once wrote, "A little learning is a dangerous thing." Nowhere is that more evident than when it comes time to fill out our brackets each year. Inevitably, the smartest college basketball fan you know will be out of the running before the Round of 32 has ended, while Gladys from Accounting will be counting her winnings thanks to picking teams based on a combination of color and mascot fighting ability.

Some might see this happen year after year and become discouraged. "What's the point?" they'll wonder aloud as they're blinded by red ink. To me, the love of the game is the point. Sure, my champ might get upset in the Sweet Sixteen, but that doesn't take away the sense of satisfaction I feel when I click submit and see that virtual confetti falling on ESPN's website. Being able to articulate why a 15-seed has the chance to beat an overrated 2-seed, or why a 1-seed doesn't want to see a certain 4-seed in its region, is a conversation you can only have with a very specific set of people, but I promise that it makes all the chaos of March worth it.

Let's be dangerous and do a little bit of learning. Is it going to help a couple of months from now? Time will tell. But for now, let's get to know five teams that have the potential to be this year's Cinderella.

Cinderella candidate No. 1: UC Irvine

Let's begin with the UC Irvine. The Anteaters are 17-3 and 7-1 in the Big West, but are they really on any top-25 team's radar right now? Not bloody likely. Still, they have several characteristics of a team that could be dangerous come tournament time.

UC Irvine has a top-flight defense, especially inside the paint, which is where 7-foot senior Brent Leuchten can frequently be found. The Anteaters don't give up offensive rebounds, and they almost never send their opponents to the line to get free points. They do get there themselves though, and their 80.8 free throw percentage is currently fourth-best in the nation.

Irvine doesn't shoot the ball particularly well, but they do assist on a high percentage of their baskets. If they can knock down some early shots against a team of superior athletes then frustrate them with their stellar defense, they could pull an upset or two.

Cinderella candidate No. 2: St. John's

Is it fair to call St. John's a Cinderella when they're coached by living legend Rick Pitino and by far the biggest brand name on this list? Considering they haven't made the Round of 64 in a decade, I'm leaning yes.

The Johnnies are 17-3 but for some reason they seem like a forgotten team. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Red Storm as just a 7-seed right now, which is perplexing because their three losses have come by a total of five points and none of them were to bad teams. They also have some solid wins, including two over Xavier.

Why can St. John's make a run? For one thing, their defense is relentless. They block a lot of shots and in typical Rick Pitino style, they force a lot of turnovers. This team is laden with juniors and seniors, and they grab over 38 percent of their own misses, the 12th-best rate in the nation.

St. John's has its weaknesses, namely shooting the ball from three-point range. The sign of a well-coached team is one that understands its limitations, and as a result they just simply don't shoot it from outside. Seriously, they rank 348th out of 364 Division 1 teams in how often they hoist it from three. The NCAA Tournament rewards teams that don't let the pressure of the moment throw them off their game. I believe that when the time comes, the Johnnies will stick to their game.

Cinderella candidate No. 3: New Mexico

Let's keep it in the family for our next pick, because Richard Pitino has a squad that could give opponents fits in March. The Lobos share more than a few traits with St. John's, including an ability to force turnovers and an aversion to shooting it from outside.

What sets New Mexico apart from so many other teams is their pace. The Lobos will try to run you out of the gym, and without much time to prepare for their aggression, they just might succeed. This team plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the country. If they can coax a plodding team such as Houston, St. Mary's or Clemson into playing their style, we could see an upset.

New Mexico has proven already that they can beat good teams by stacking neutral-court wins over UCLA and USC plus home wins over VCU and San Diego St. They did lose to St. John's earlier in the season, but as the father of three young kids, I can attest to the fact that dad doesn't let junior win. As long as the selection committee doesn't set up an all-Pitino affair, the Lobos can do some damage.

Cinderella candidate No. 4: Bradley

One of the best indicators of which team can become Cinderella is three-point shooting. We saw it last year when Jack Gohlke of Oakland became the Human Torch for one memorable weekend, sending Kentucky home in what turned out to be John Calipari's final game with Big Blue Nation and pushing eventual Final Four participant NC State to the brink. Gohlke hit 16 threes in those two games, a feat we're not likely to see again.

One of the teams that could do a convincing collaborative impression of Gohlke's heroics is Bradley. That's because the Braves are second in the country with a team-wide three-point shooting percentage of 41.2. Not only that, they're also phenomenal at defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8 percent from beyond the arc.

Modern basketball has become more and more obsessed with the three. If you can shoot it that much better than the team you're facing, it stands to reason that you have a chance to beat anyone. Bradley isn't the most athletic team, and they have only one player that stands over 6-foot-9. On paper, a blue blood should be able to physically dominate them, but we've all seen it happen where a superior team gets into a shooting contest rather than play to its strengths. Forty minutes later, their dreams of March glory are shattered.

Cindella candidate No. 5: North Dakota St.

Take everything I just said about Bradley and strap a nitro canister to it. North Dakota St. is the only team in the country that shoots the three better than the Braves, and just as St. John's understands its weaknesses by not shooting it from outside, the Bison understand their strengths and launch it more than anyone in the country.

Yes you heard that right. They shoot the most threes (more than half their total shots taken), and they're somehow ultra-efficient in doing it. Number one in both categories. That's wild. This of course leads to massive swings in variance, which is why at this moment the Bison are only third in the Summit League and on the outside looking in at the tournament field.

The top six Bison by minutes played all shoot the three at 38 percent or better. Defensively though, things are much less exciting. This is as vanilla a defense as you'll see, as they don't block shots and they rank dead last nationally in forcing turnovers. It's almost like North Dakota St.'s mentality is, "Go ahead and do what you want, we're going to come down and get three anyway so it doesn't really matter." One small benefit is that they give up very few assists, probably because nobody ever bothers leaving their man to help a teammate.

I have faith that the Bison will bring that automatic bid back home to Fargo and then wreak some havoc on some poor unsuspecting 3-seed, if only because it would be immensely entertaining.