5 key stats that reveal Lakers strengths and weaknesses
On the surface, things have been going pretty well for the Los Angeles Lakers this season. Hollywood's team is 10-6 and in fourth place in the Western Conference. Anthony Davis has put together his best statistical season ever, and new head coach JJ Redick has looked like the right fit after a drama-filled hiring process this summer.
Sixteen games is still only about 20 percent of a full NBA regular season though, and that small sample size has masked some key deficiencies that could bite the Lakers over the long haul.
The Lakers have been a feast-or-famine team in several key areas, leading the league in some categories while ranking at or near the bottom in others. This could be viewed as a good thing, as a team that has a clear picture of its strengths and weaknesses can address them with good coaching and veteran leadership, or it could be seen as a sign that L.A. is closer to a pretender than a true contender because other quality teams will exploit their noticeable inadequacies while being prepared to counter their obvious strengths.
There are many stats that tell the story of this Lakers season. We'll take a look at five of them that stand out while trying to determine which are likely to continue or regress, and which could be either the reason L.A. can make a serious run or the reason they'll ultimately fall short of their goals.
The Lakers rank last in the NBA in fast break points allowed per game
To say that the Lakers have not been winning with defense this season would be a vast understatement. There are 30 teams in the league, yet only the Bulls, Pelicans and Wizards have a worse defensive rating than the Lakers. The Bulls are a somewhat scrappy 7-11, but the Pels and Wizards are currently two of the top frontrunners in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. This isn't the company a contender wants to keep.
L.A.'s defense is even worse in transition, where they rank dead last in the league. It's not surprising, as Anthony Davis is the only player getting serious minutes that is currently a plus on the defensive end, but it's a serious problem that the Lakers are spotting their opponents 19.3 easy points per game.
In addition to not having many reliable defenders, the Lakers also have an age problem. When sorted by usage, only the Bucks have an older team. This isn't a problem that's going to go away with the current roster makeup, as AD and LeBron aren't getting any younger. The Lakers are short on athleticism, which is why they keep getting beaten down the court.
The only way to fix this stat and make the Lakers a respectable transition defense is through the trade market. Younger, springier players that are willing to buy in on doing the dirty work needed to win games are exactly what GM Rob Pelinka should be looking for.
Only the Knicks trail the Lakers in bench points per game
The offense has been a bright spot for the Lakers, as they currently rank fourth in the league and first in the West in offensive rating. JJ Redick deserves credit, as his centering of the offense around Anthony Davis while emphasizing ball movement and off-ball motion has paid dividends. The Lakers are completing the seventh-most passes per game, up from 25th last season.
Davis has rewarded his coach's faith in him by scoring 30.1 points per game, a number that's good for third in the chase for the NBA scoring title. LeBron has been the primary ballhandler, but even though he's dishing out the third-most assists in the league, he's still dropping 23.6 points per game, too.
Davis and LeBron are the highest-scoring tandem in the league, ahead of even Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown of the Celtics. Is this a good stat or a bad one? You be the judge. Being this top-heavy is inherently risky, especially with aging players that are more prone to injury. If AD or LBJ are forced to miss significant time, who will pick up the scoring slack?
Unless you count Dalton Knecht (who proved in the past couple of weeks that he should be starting), there's nobody on the bench that can put the ball in the hoop. Gabe Vincent and Max Christie are offensive black holes. Jaxson Hayes and Christian Koloko are rim-runners without much of a low-post game. D'Angelo Russell was sent to the bench for a reason.
Depth matters during the 82-game grind, and the Lakers simply don't have much of it. Unless Davis and LeBron are indestructible, this is going to be an issue.
The Lakers lead the league in free throw attempts and makes
The Lakers are 10-6, so although it's fair to be concerned, there's no need for doom and gloom. Let's pivot to a positive stat that illustrates something the Lakers are doing right.
No team is taking and making more free throws than the Lakers, and there's no reason to believe that will change any time soon. Anthony Davis has gotten to the line more than anyone in the league, and he's better than most big men at converting once he gets there. AD is shooting 78.1 percent from the line this season, a hair under his career average of 79.5.
LeBron's playmaking and Redick's pass-heavy offense have created extra trips to the charity stripe, and of course LeBron is always able to get to the basket and draw a foul whenever he puts his mind to it. If the refs don't swallow their whistles, the Lakers have the physicality and attacking mindset to stay in any game.
The Lakers are the only team in the top six of either conference with a negative point differential
Here's one that you can take either way. Of the 12 teams in the league that would currently have playoff spots locked up if the season ended today, only the Lakers have a negative point differential. That includes the Heat and Bucks, neither of whom are even over .500.
On the bright side, L.A. is winning close games. This reflects well on Redick's in-game coaching ability, and the veteran savvy of AD and LeBron to get the job done when it counts the most.
For the pessimists out there, the Lakers have only one win of over 10 points this season, and they've played a lot of bottom-feeding teams. When they've been matched up with the juggernaut Cavs and the Nuggets, who've had their number for the last three years, they were crushed by a combined 49 points in two games.
Those two blowouts are skewing the numbers, but the fact remains that point differential is a good indicator of where a team will finish. Last year, the top eight teams in the East and the top 11 teams in the West finished in the green. L.A.'s 8-2 record in close games is likely to regress, even if Redick keeps pushing the right buttons. Is the 10-6 record a mirage? Time will tell.
The Lakers have beaten teams with a combined record of 64-107 and have lost to teams with a combined record of 66-41
A disturbing trend has emerged in this Lakers season. When L.A. plays bad teams, or teams around .500, they tend to win. When they face the upper echelon of the league, they tend to lose.
We mentioned above how the Lakers took a beating from the Cavs and Nuggets. The Cavs have killed everyone en route to a 17-1 record, so there's no shame in that, but the Nuggets took a 27-point whooping at home to the Knicks just two days after they blew the Lakers off the court. That's concerning.
The Cavs are the only top team the Lakers have faced, unless you also count the Magic, who came back from a double-digit deficit to stun the Lakers in L.A. despite being without Paolo Banchero. Future dates with the Thunder, Celtics, Knicks and Rockets still loom, and a Christmas Day date with the resurgent Warriors could be a referendum on this team's ceiling if they get clobbered.
Taking care of business against teams you should beat is important, especially early in the season when nobody is outright tanking yet. For the Lakers to prove they're serious contenders though, they need to start beating teams that they might be matched up with in the playoffs, otherwise they're looking at another early exit.