After the conclusion of the 2025 NBA Finals in mid-June, the next major event on the docket is the 2025 NBA Draft on June 25-26. The intrigue of that event is obvious, with the next wave of young players entering the league and the unofficial opening of trade season with seemingly endless possibilities. Following that, however, is the opening of free agency at the end of the month, and this year's crop is complicated.
On one hand, very few teams have clear paths to creating cap space, with only the Brooklyn Nets actually entering the summer with the ability to sign max-level free agents without other machinations. At the same time, a number of players in line for big paydays are either definitely hitting the market or evaluating highly lucrative player options. As such, it is possible that most of the top players on the market simply return to their incumbent teams, though pricepoint is perhaps the most interesting part of the calculus in multiple situations.
In this space, we'll tackle five potential free agents (in alphabetical order) who are in line to potentially garner deals that might overpay them, at least by the end, and that keeps in mind the reality of internal leverage, aging curves, and league economics.
Dorian Finney-Smith
In the middle of the 2024-25 season, the Lakers acquired Dorian Finney-Smith from the Brooklyn Nets. The 3-and-D forward filled a desperately needed role for Los Angeles and, in 43 games, the Lakers had a sparkling +11.1 net rating with Finney-Smith on the court. That is the backdrop for a fascinating contractual situation this summer, as Finney-Smith has a reasonably priced $15.4 million player option.
There is a world in which Finney-Smith exercises that option, but he could also exercise strong internal leverage on a Lakers team that badly needs him. Make no mistake, Finney-Smith isn't going to wind up with a nine-figure deal, but if the stars align, he could be on a very lucrative pact that could take him well into his mid-30's.
Josh Giddey
Giddey is the only player on this mini-list that is facing restricted free agency, but he is also seemingly in line for a big deal. The Bulls infamously sent Alex Caruso to Oklahoma City to acquire Giddey and, after a shaky start to the 2024-25 campaign, Giddey did play well down the stretch.
There have already been reports of Giddey's camp seeking a deal in the $150 million range. Even with the rising salary cap environment, that deal could look like an eye sore if Giddey doesn't level up a bit, and Chicago certainly seems to have an attachment to him that could lead to an overpay.
Kyrie Irving
Irving's situation is deeply complicated. For one, he is currently recovering from a torn ACL, and Irving is not expected to be able to play until well into the 2025-26 season. The 33-year-old also has a player option to navigate but, perhaps most importantly, Nico Harrison and the Mavericks are all-in on the short term after the Luka Doncic trade.
As such, Dallas absolutely cannot afford to lose Irving, as he is functionally the only on-ball creator on the roster. Combine that desperation with Irving's injury and his age (33), and you have a situation that could definitely result in Irving getting a contract that out-paces his ability by the end of its run.
Julius Randle
The Wolves made back-to-back trips to the Western Conference Finals, and because of that, it would be a surprise if Minnesota pivoted too much this summer. Randle could benefit greatly from that reality, as he is facing likely free agency with a relatively modest player option.
The 2025-26 season will be the age-31 campaign for Randle, who is coming off a strong showing in his first year with Minnesota. The Wolves are also (well) over the cap with no way to functionally replace Randle, so the situation could dictate a max or near-max deal for a player that might not quite be at that level in a year or two.
Myles Turner
At the time of this post, the Pacers are in the NBA Finals, and that is great news for Myles Turner. While Indiana flirted with trading him for a very long time, Turner is the starting center on a very good team, and the Pacers have basically no one behind him.
Turner isn't a star at the age of 29, but he is irreplaceable for Indiana and the leverage he has is enormous. The one caveat is that there doesn't seem to be a lofty suitor with cap space, but Turner could command a long, rich deal this summer when you look at the landscape and his 3-and-D skill set. If that means a four-year deal for nine figures, the end could be perilous.