6 free agents Blue Jays should sign, 2 to avoid

Blue Jay’s GM, Ross Atkins, has been under tons of fire for continuing his failing strategy with only one year before several key players are set to enter free agency. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, and Chad Green among others will hit the open market after the 2025 season concludes. Attempts to extend Vladdy have so far failed. Atkins has spent years building the Blue Jays around Vladdy and Bichette. Since the much-anticipated arrival of this dynamic duo in 2019, the Blue Jays have gone to three Wild Card matchups failing to win a single game. This season, the Blue Jays finished last in the AL East with a sub-.500 record.

But rather than sell-off as failing teams often do, Atkins decided to roll the dice insisting that the Jays can indeed deliver some postseason victories next year. What does this mean for the Blue Jays?

To go from last to first (or at least crack the Wild Card berth), Toronto will need a major overhaul. In 2024, the Blue Jays finished 22nd in team ERA and were tied for 17th in team OPS. Obviously, a lot of work is implied. Worst case scenario would be playing another mediocre season while missing an opportunity to trade their top players at the premium they were once worth.

While the entire baseball world has looked poorly on Atkins, there might be a few free agent signings he could make (or avoid making) that would turn him from zero to hero in one year’s time. What might these signings be?

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Signings to make

6. Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman has been a huge part of the Astros dynasty for the past several years. He’s a plus defender, can reliably hit more than 20 home runs a season, and has been a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

2024 has arguably been Bregman’s worst year at the plate, but this can be chalked up to injuries. Bregman posted a slash line of .260/.315/.453 with 26 home runs in 581 at-bats. His .768 OPS and .315 OBP are the lowest of his career. At a glance, you’ll notice Bregman’s worst is still very good. However, this season is a far cry from 2019 when he hit 41 home runs to the tune of a .296 batting average, both career highs for the Astros’ third baseman.

Another aspect of Bregman’s game that makes him a valuable target is his postseason experience. While Bregman’s trips to the postseason have been a mixed bag, he has been a consistent source of home runs every year except in 2024 when he only saw eight at-bats in the Astros’ early exit in the ALWC matchup. Bregman went 3-8 with three singles.

Bregman alone might not make the Blue Jays a World Series team, but adding him would be a good start. A contract for Bregman likely wouldn’t break the bank, but with him headlining the free agent class of third-basemen, the bidding might be somewhat competitive.

5. Jurickson Profar

Jurickson Profar is coming off a career season. Whether it was a flash in the pan or he figured something out, either way, he has proven himself to be a quality bat. Profar slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs and a .839 OPS in 564 at-bats. His first-half performance resulted in his first All-Star selection. Regardless of how he performed in the past, the market will judge him by his most recent accomplishments. Nonetheless, he shouldn’t carry an exorbitant price tag.

If Profar can continue hitting like he did this past year, he will fit well in the middle of any lineup. The Blue Jays will undoubtedly be searching for bats to complement Vladdy at the top of the order. Profar can easily be slotted one or two spots behind him providing much-needed cover for the Blue Jays’ premier slugger. Besides Vladdy and with Bichette constantly injured, the Blue Jays didn’t have any reliable hitters in 2024. Profar, even in his weaker years, stands as an improvement over most of the Blue Jays lineup.

Profar has shown interest in returning to San Diego but has left the door open to other offers. It is worth mentioning that Profar finished the season in a bit of a slump that he carried into the postseason, going 5-25 against the Braves and Dodgers. Profar owns a .258 career postseason batting average with one home run in 89 at-bats.

4. Teoscar Hernandez

Over the past several years before being traded to the Mariners, Teoscar Hernandez was one of the Blue Jays more consistent producers. This season, the two-time Silver Slugger is aiding the Dodgers on a postseason run in hopes of bringing another title to Los Angeles.

In his first and only year in Dodger blue, Hernandez slashed a respectable .272/.339/.501 with 32 home runs and a .840 OPS. Adding to his resume is the fact that he won a Home Run Derby on his first try. While impressive, an accomplishment such as that might not draw him much interest since those long balls didn’t count for the Dodgers on the scoreboard.

Even if he hasn’t established himself as an elite slugger, Hernandez has proven himself to be a quality bat who has consistently hit 25+ home runs each year since 2019 (except for the shortened 2020 season, however, his 16 home runs that season were somewhat impressive in that time). Since 2020, Hernandez has hit for a .274 batting average making him a well-rounded hitter with power.

After a great season, there will likely be some competition for Hernandez, who is due for a nice pay raise.  If the Blue Jays were to have a reunion with Hernandez, he could easily fill one of the gaping holes in the middle of their batting order.

3. Corbin Burnes

After a year where the pitching staff performed rather poorly, a new ace should be high on the list of Blue Jays’ priorities. This offseason, there is no pitcher on the free agent market that tops Corbin Burnes. Burnes finished the 2024 season with a 2.92 ERA in the manner of a workhorse having pitched 194.1 innings.

The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner and annual contender has proven he can pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA with some consistency having done it three times over the past four years (with a qualifying number of innings pitched) in his young career. A rotation featuring Burnes, an emerging Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt has World Series potential, providing Gausman and Bassitt can pitch as they once did not that long ago.

Burnes’ Cy Young resume is also bolstered by his postseason performance. In 27 postseason innings pitched, Burnes has only given up seven runs giving him an ERA of 2.33. 

As the top arm on the market, Burnes will command a pricey sum for a contract. The Blue Jays, in their win-now position, are desperate for game-changing talent and are looking to make a splash. If they can land Burnes, it may be a difference-making decision that leads them to the postseason.

2. Anthony Santander

It is a well-known fact that home runs are a winning factor in games. Since the mid-2010s, this fact is even more relevant as batting averages continue to sink while dingers fly at a more frequent click. Last year, the Blue Jays only had one player who eclipsed 19 home runs, that being Vladdy who totaled 30. Toronto could definitely make use of a slugger like Anthony Santander to shore up their obvious power deficiency.

Santander is coming off a 2024 season where he mashed a career-high 44 long balls. It was the only time the Orioles’ slugger hit 40 or more homers since his MLB debut in 2017. Only two players totaled more home runs this year, those two being Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. Over the past few years, Santander has been establishing himself as a true power threat. If Santander is just now finding his power stroke, the team that signs him stands to reap an enormous benefit.

As a player coming off a 40+ home run season, we can be certain the estimated price on Santander has gone up considerably. Still, since it seems his home run total is his only big selling point, Santander won’t likely use up the entire budget. If the Blue Jays decide to add several players, Santander is a solid power option that will still provide them the financial flexibility to make more moves.

1. Juan Soto

Last year, the New York Yankees finished fourth in the AL East missing out on the Wild Card by a six-game deficit. This year, the Yankees posted the best record in the AL on a campaign to win number 28. For the most part, this year’s Yankee team isn’t much different from last year’s. Adding to the confusion is the fact that reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole was out for most of the season. What might be the reason behind this anomaly? Enter Juan Soto.

Slashing .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and an OPS of .988, Juan Soto has turned the Yankees into a heavyweight contender on the cusp of another championship. A .288 batting average with 41 home runs is the sign of an elite slugger. But what makes Soto special is his ability to get on base. In his seven years in the MLB, Soto has never posted an OBP under .401. His career .421 OBP is even higher than the .419 he posted in 2024. A combination of Soto and Vladdy at the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup would go a long way to seeing Toronto return to the postseason.

Rumor already has it that the Blue Jays have some serious interest in Soto. As the top player on the market and one of the best hitters in baseball, Soto is due for a massive payday. He might completely drain a budget dry, but he’s proven he’s worth every penny.

Signings to avoid

2. Justin Verlander

There are very few pitchers that carry a reputation like Justin Verlander’s. Verlander has won Rookie of the Year, three Cy Youngs, an MVP, and an ALCS MVP. With a career 3.30 ERA and having spent 19 years in the majors (did not pitch in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery) he is a sure-fire lock for Cooperstown. Who wouldn’t want him?

Unfortunately, Verlander’s time in the MLB is nearly up. Next season, Verlander will be 42 years old. Verlander dealt with several shoulder problems during the 2024 season. He pitched to an abysmal, career-worst 5.48 ERA through 90.1 innings which resulted in him being left off the Astros’ Wild Card series roster. At his age, with his 2024 performance, and with his injuries, Verlander is a question mark. This isn’t to say he doesn’t have anything left in the tank. There just isn’t any way of knowing how Verlander will perform next season if he can stay healthy.

Verlander will likely be seeking a one-year deal to end his career on a high note. While this does match the Blue Jays win now criteria, one year of Verlander might not be the best gamble. Unless Verlander comes cheap and the Blue Jays are willing to spend on a reliable insurance arm, they should stay away from him.

1. Shane Bieber

Cy Young Award winners are usually very expensive, but the price tag is usually adjusted for recent performance. Shane Bieber hasn’t pitched a full season since 2022 and the games he threw in 2023 weren’t Cy Young-worthy. Since his Cy Young year in 2020, Bieber’s fastball velocity has dipped considerably. However, this didn’t stop him from pitching to a 2.88 ERA in 2022.

After returning from injury at the beginning of this year, “Not Justin” threw 12 innings without giving up a run before once more suffering a season-ending surgery. At this point, we don’t know what to expect from Bieber. This raises a flurry of questions. Can he stay healthy? Will he return to form after undergoing Tommy John surgery? More importantly, should the Blue Jays take the risk of signing him with only one year to win it all?

With all the uncertainty, teams may very well have the chance to sign a Cy Young Award winner at a steep discount this offseason. If he does stay healthy and he returns to form, Bieber can go a long way towards helping a team to the postseason. However, while there is plenty of accolades we can bestow on Bieber, there are three concerns with his last injury alone.

For one, he likely won’t be back at the beginning of the 2025 season. Next season, the Blue Jays are in a race against the clock and can’t afford to sign a pitcher who is going to miss time. Secondly, Bieber will be on limited innings because of his injury. And lastly, his performance post-surgery will likely be lacking. Bieber might be a great signing for the long haul, but if 2025 is going to be the Blue Jays’ year, their money will be better spent elsewhere.