Everyone loves a good underdog story, as long as it isn't your favorite team on the receiving end of that underdog story. With the field for the NCAA Tournament set, it's time to identify some potential underdogs and Cinderellas in the 68-team field.
Factoring in the lack of upsets that happen in the tournament, let's define Cinderella candidates as teams that don't have a top-eight seed. You could argue that a No. 7 seed could be a Cinderella since only 10 No. 7 seeds have made the Sweet Sixteen, but it feels wrong to call No. 7 seed Vanderbilt a Cinderella option, right?
Let's look at seven teams seeded No. 10 or lower who could make a Sweet Sixteen run.
Harvard - No. 10 seed
Harmoni Turner can outscore anyone in the country, which is part of why Harvard — one of three Ivy League programs to make the NCAA Tournament — is a very dangerous team.
But don't discount this team on the defensive end, as Harvard ranks fourth in the nation in defensive rating. A strong defense plus a lead scorer who had five games this season with 30 or more points including a 44-point effort against Princeton in the Ivy Tournament is a great combination for an upset against Michigan State in the first round.
Iowa State - No. 11 seed
This was supposed to be a breakout year for an Iowa State squad that had a number of good, young pieces, including Audi Crooks and Addy Brown. That didn't quite materialize, and the Cyclones wound up as one of the last four teams in.
Still, Crooks is one of the most dominant interior bigs in the country. You can't discount the possibility that she puts this team on her back and wins multiple games over the next week. That wasn't the case in the regular season as the team went just 1-10 against teams with a top 50 Her Hoop Stats rating, but weird things can happen in March.
Green Bay - No. 12 seed
The Horizon League battle this year between Green Bay and Purdue Fort Wayne was my favorite mid-major thing to watch, but Green Bay proved it was the conference's best team by defeating Purdue Fort Wayne this in March.
The Phoenix have now won 20 games in a row, beating both of the Horizon's other good teams — Purdue Fort Wayne plus Cleveland State — multiple times in that span. Green Bay ranks 34th in the nation in points per play and should be a tough out for Alabama in the first round.
Montana State - No. 13 seed
The Bobcats are hungry. After narrowly avoiding a shocking upset to in-state rival Montana in the Big Sky title game that would have knocked the Bobcats out of the tournament, Montana State gets a chance to show how good a team it is in March Madness.
This is a stout defensive team, ranking 11th in the nation in defensive rating and leading the country in steals per game and steal rate. The Bobcats are going to do their best to pester opposing ball-handlers and force weird things to happen. It's how they defeated AAC champion Florida Gulf Coast in December, poking away nine steals over the course of the game.
South Dakota State - No. 10 seed
South Dakota State fell victim to the selection committee underseeding mid-majors, because the 27-3 Jackrabbits shouldn't be a No. 10 seed.
The Summit League champions ranked 11th in offensive rating this season, largely because the team was one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country, ranking top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage. They were very competitive in a loss to Duke and have wins over Creighton and Oregon. The only real blemish on the resume was a 46-point road loss to Texas, but the Longhorns were on one offensively that night.
Murray State - No. 11 seed
Murray State might be the most fun mid-major team in the country and a first-round meeting with Iowa has the Racers primed for the upset.
The Racers have the No. 1 scoring offense in Division I, putting up 87.8 points per game. Four playes average at least 13.9 points per game, led by Katelyn Young's 22.2 per contest. The defense is bad — full stop, no qualifiers. The frenetic pace of the offense leads to lapses defensively that can be exploited.
But Murray State plays an Iowa team that ranks 182nd in scoring defense in Round 1 and potentially an Oklahoma team that ranks 272nd in scoring defense in Round 2. How are those teams supposed to slow this offense down? Worst case scenario is Murray State loses a thriller in the first round to Iowa. Best case is Murray State wins two thrillers to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Fairfield - No. 12 seed
The Stags have lost a total of six games over the past two seasons. At some point in the next few weeks, they'll lose a seventh, but it might not be this weekend.
Fairfield's been one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking eighth in defensive rating, and faces a hobbled Kansas State team in the first round. Despite some promising updates, I'd be shocked to see the Wildcats have a healthy Ayoka Lee for this game, and without a healthy Lee, the team will struggle.
This team has occasionally had offensive issues, but the defense has been on point no matter who it played, including holding Oklahoma under 65 points.