9 bold MLB offseason predictions that will come true, 2 that won't

The hot stove is burning, trade and free agent chatter fills the air, and the roar of the crowd has ceased to reverberate in MLB stadiums. Yet another glorious offseason is upon us. It’s that time of unmitigated hope and limitless aspirations that precedes the cold, harsh realities of the Opening Day roster, but I suppose that depends on the team you’re pulling for and their budget. As we wait patiently for the winter meetings, let’s discuss some intriguing possibilities in the trade and free agent markets.

I could write a paragraph explaining why Pete Alonso will be returning to the Mets, but that isn’t too intriguing because most everyone has already come to that conclusion (I will look very bad if Pete Alonso is not in a Mets jersey come Opening Day). While the Pete Alonso free agency might be cut and dry before anything is said or done, there are plenty of hot stove scenarios yet to surface. It is those offseason stories that are yet to fully materialize that we’re after. People are more or less interested in the shockers that no one saw coming.

Today, we hope to fill any empty space with more chatter attempting to call some of these shockers before they happen. Using logic, reasoning, and gut feelings, I hope to deduce several big outcomes for the offseason market. Keep in mind these predictions of future events that will or won’t happen are advertised as “bold predictions” and should be taken with a grain of salt (one grain may do, but keep the shaker handy just in case).

But every prediction, regardless of how bold, needs to include a calculated element to make it feasible or it’s just noise. With that said, let’s dive into realm of possibility.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.

MLB free agency moves that will happen:

9. Max Fried to the Diamondbacks

After a World Series run in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks attempted to capitalize on a great postseason pitching performance by bolstering their rotation. However, the acquisitions of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery didn’t turn out so well. With management’s current sentiment for Jordan Montgomery, who recently opted in, we can assume his days as a snake are done. Luckily, a perfectly suitable replacement in Max Fried is available.

Fried had a solid year throwing to a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings. Fried, who has dealt with injuries and ailments every year since 2018, missed a large portion of July with a forearm injury. He initially struggled upon his return but was rather quick to recover his form.

In the postseason, Fried took the mound for the Braves’ fateful second game of the Wild Card match where he gave up five earned runs in two innings against the Padres. However, Fried was extremely unlucky as he pitched mostly to soft contact outside of a home run. Fried’s postseason record is a mixed bag. He rarely had any outings that were merely good or bad. In most of his postseason starts, his performance was either excellent or atrocious. But his postseason cumulative ERA of 5.10 suggests the atrocious performances outweigh the excellent ones.

Regardless, Fried could go a long way to helping the D-Backs return to the postseason, something they narrowly missed in 2024. If acquired by Arizona, Fried would join an already solid rotation featuring Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt.

8. Christian Walker to the Yankees

Sadly, the days of Anthony Rizzo in pinstripes appear to be over. The Yankees have declined his option sending him into free agency. If the Yankees look to improve the now vacant position, which will almost certainly be the case especially if Soto leaves, the Yankees’ best bet is Christian Walker. Walker won’t be the most expensive free agent on the market, but all signs are pointing to a great bat in the making.

Walker’s injury-hampered 2024 season understandably saw his production dip a moderate amount. Walker slashed .251/.335/.468/.803 with 26 home runs. The two years prior saw Walker’s yearly home run totals eclipse the 30-mark. Walker may be a fantastic bet if his slugging ability is yet to be fully displayed. Yankee Stadium may also boost his power numbers as it appears to have done with Soto who hit 41 home runs for the first time in his career never having eclipsed 35 in a single season before 2024. Defensively, Walker is the top first baseman on the market as he just won his third consecutive Gold Glove.

Walker, who turns 34 next season, is expected to land a $20 million a year deal according to writers from MLB Trade Rumors. If Soto does end up leaving, Walker is a no-brainer.

7. Paul Goldschmidt to the Reds

The Reds have seen another year come and go where they chased a postseason spot to no avail. Their offense struggled mightily coming in 19th in home runs and 26th in collective batting average among MLB teams. Cincinnati hasn’t made a big splash in a while, but after hiring Terry Francona, they have shown they may be serious in their pursuit of a postseason.

With rental first baseman Ty France hitting the market, they will likely look to upgrade his now-vacant position. There are a few good options on the market, but there might not be a better bargain than Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is coming off a pair of down years. In 2024, he posted what appears to be his worst year. Goldschmidt slashed .245/.302/.414/.716 with 22 home runs. But as recently as 2022, Goldy won the NL MVP, his only MVP award. This comes among five Silver Sluggers he won across his 14 big-league seasons. Defensively, Goldschmidt has been one of the best at first base, garnering four Gold Gloves.

At age 37, there are concerns that Goldschmidt’s best years are behind him. But even if he never regains form, he can still be an instrumental leader to the Reds’ young core with Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer.

After two lackluster years and at his age, Goldy won’t cost the premium he was once worth. Given his talent and experience, the risk-reward proposition he represents may be very favorable.

6. Tyler O’Neill to the Astros

The Astros are at a crossroads. Either they make a splash or they let their dynasty crumble. Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alex Bregman are among the top Astros on the free agent market this offseason. The 2026 season will bite even deeper with Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy set to hit the market.

In 2024, the Astros were the third-highest-spending team. With Jose Altuve, Josh Hader, and Yordan Alvarez locked up for the foreseeable future, it would be reasonable to expect the Astros will aggressively target some inexpensive help, especially if they want to extend Valdez or Tucker and maybe resign Bregman. Enter Tyler O’Neill.

O’Neill has been regarded for his power and exceptional defense (two-time Gold Glove winner). However, a long list of injuries and ailments has kept him from playing. In his seven years at the MLB level, he has not seen 500 at-bats in a single season. He has only seen his at-bats totals cross above 400 in two seasons: 2021 and 2024. In both seasons, O’Neill notched over 30 home runs. He even came in eighth in the 2021 MVP race.

In 2024, O’Neill slashed .241/.336/.511/.847 with 31 home runs. If he can stay healthy, he might top 40 home runs a season. With O’Neill’s power potential in the lineup hitting behind Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, the Astros would have a chance to regain their dynastic performance.

5. Luis Robert Jr. to the Blue Jays

Under Blue Jays GM Ross Atkin’s current plan which hasn’t produced much since it was developed, the Jays are trying for a postseason run with a team led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Unfortunately, Guerrero Jr. is in the last year of his contract. But rather than accept defeat and trade for young talent, the Blue Jays are putting the pedal to the metal with one year to win it all. Reports have it the Blue Jays are trying hard for Juan Soto. Whether or not they land Soto, it appears by their pursuit of Soto that the Blue Jays are going to be tremendously aggressive in acquiring players that can get them over the hill and carry them to a World Series. But assuming they don’t land Soto because the odds are very much against it, they could try to land another star on the trade market and use the savings to extend Guerrero Jr. while still making other improvements. The answer: Luis Robert Jr.

Robert Jr. is one of the White Sox biggest trade chips along with Garrett Crochet. He largely struggled through an injury-laden 2024 season slashing .224/.278/.379/.657 with 14 home runs. In Robert’s one full season that wasn’t interrupted by injuries, his power was on full display having hit 38 home runs and winning himself a Silver Slugger. At times, Robert has shown he can be an elite 5-tool player. He can steal bases at a high click, hammer home runs like a true slugger, hit for a high average, and is arguably the best defender in centerfield (won Gold Glove in 2020). This might be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to pick up a superstar at a low trading cost given his constant injuries.

The 27-year-old Robert is under contract through 2027 with two club options after 2025. If he can stay healthy, he is a game-changer. If Ross Atkins is serious about building a contender, Robert needs to be on his radar. Because I believe Soto will not go to the Jays, I think Atkins will opt for the next best thing.

4. Nolan Arenado to the Yankees

The Yankees have made a habit of picking up stars well past their primes. They did it with Lance Berkman, Ichiro Suzuki, and Josh Donaldson to name a few. While the idea of an inexpensive superstar is attractive, none of these worked out for them (though Berkman did great the year after leaving the Yankees). But there’s no indication to assume they won’t do it again. If this is the case, Nolan Arenado is their guy.

While Arenado carries some skepticism with his recent decline, he isn’t too far removed from a great year in 2022 when he won his fifth and last Silver Slugger. In 2024, Arenado slashed .272/.325/.394/.719 with 16 home runs, the lowest home run total since his first year in the majors besides 2020.

Arenado is still a quality batsman with an opportunity to rebound, but his offense is only a part of the story. Arenado has long been one of, if not, the best defender at third base. He has accumulated 10 Gold Gloves at the hot corner as well as six Platinum Gloves. Considering the Yankees many reprehensible defensive miscues during the most important game they’ve played since 2009, trading for Arenado might bring a much-welcome change. Going into his age 34 year after two down years, the Cardinals can’t expect a package that will blow them away in return for Arenado. The Yankees will certainly have the pieces to pull off a trade if they choose to. Arenado will be under club control through 2027.

3. Anthony Santander to the Nationals

Among other teams interested in Juan Soto, there is the Washington Nationals. Off the bat, there doesn’t appear to be a chance of the Nats signing Soto. They don’t have the pockets of Cohen and they aren’t in a position to win it all like the Dodgers or Yankees. Having already traded Lane Thomas, the Nationals will probably hold onto the rest of their young talent which will soon make up most of their roster. That said, free agent Anthony Santander seems to be a good fit for the open spot in the outfield.

In 2024, the Orioles’ slugger slashed .235/.308/.506/.814 with 44 home runs, the only season he has eclipsed 33. On the market, topping 40 home runs bodes well for Santander, but he will likely be affordable as writers from MLB Trade Rumors predict he will make $20 million a year. This is because of the low batting average and lack of an outstanding track record.

Nonetheless, adding Santander will add a much-needed layer of power to the middle of the Nationals’ batting order. While he might not be the only push the Nationals need to make the postseason, he is a big step in the right direction.

2. Josh Naylor to the Mariners

In 2024, the Seattle Mariners came close to toppling the Astros from their perch as the top team in the AL West. They enlisted the help of Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena to kickstart their dismal offense and make one final push, but they fell 3.5 games short. Their Wild Card chase would also end at a heartbreaking one game back.

The Mariners currently have open spaces at first base and DH since both Ty France and his replacement, Justin Turner, are free agents. Tyler Locklear, who made his debut in June and was sent back down in July, might be able to hold down first base or third base if he is ready and isn’t traded, but that still leaves at least one opening to fill. As they did with Justin Turner, the Mariners might do themselves a favor by trading for another rental in Josh Naylor. In 2024, Naylor slashed .243/.320/.456/.776 with 31 home runs. However, Naylor’s average this past year doesn’t tell the full story of what he is capable of. In 2023, he hit .308.

Since Naylor is in the last year of his contract, the Guardians will almost certainly trade him. According to Guardians Nation writer, Andres Chavez, the Mariners contacted Cleveland about Naylor last offseason along with the Pirates. In his assessment, either team could make a move for him.

All things considered, Seattle is in a position to win now if they can build out their offense. The Pirates would likely be looking for a longer-term solution unless they are planning to extend Naylor and are confident they can ink him to one.

Both destinations seem plausible. But because the Mariners are in a better position to win now and because they were more aggressive in their trades for impactful players at the deadline, I conclude that Naylor will leave the Guardians for the Mariners.

1. Juan Soto to the Dodgers

In the 2024 postseason, the Dodgers stepped into the fray without Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, or Tony Gonsolin. That didn’t seem to be a problem. The Dodgers came into the season with the most dreaded assortment of big-league ringers at the top of their menacing batting order with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman. But as great as they were, there is an option on the market that could make them virtually unstoppable. That option would be this season’s premier free agent: Juan Soto.

The Dodgers are reported to have already checked in on Soto. In 2024, Soto worked wonders for the New York Yankees, slashing .288/.419/.569/.988 with 41 home runs. Soto’s 41 homers are a career-high but may have been aided by the hitter-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium. Nonetheless, coming off of a 41-homer season gives Soto that much more leverage in negotiations.

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Soto might not want to leave New York citing that he prefers a non-west coast team. However, Soto did express a desire to play with Shohei Ohtani. Another non-monetary target for Soto is a team that can win. Naturally, this gives the Dodgers a leg up. But whether or not Soto prefers New York or Los Angeles, it is money that talks in any contract negotiations, and the Dodgers usually get what they want.

The Dodgers were already the fifth-highest-spending team in baseball during their 2024 campaign. Even so, they still sit on a pile of cash and operate with strong tendency to spend it. Should they outbid the Yankees, they will need to compete with Steve Cohen of the Mets. However, if Soto decides to go with the team that gives him the best shot at winning, then we will likely see Soto with the Dodgers next season.

Won’t happen

2. A Soto contract above $700 million

Aaron Judge signed a $360 million contract for nine years to stay with the Yankees ($40 million a year). Shohei Ohtani landed a $700 million dollar contract with the Dodgers for 10 years (most of which is deferred), the most expensive contract in sports history. Juan Soto and his agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of $700 million or higher.

As discussed earlier, Juan Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball. But if he lands a contract above $700 million, he would be valued more than Judge and Ohtani. Aaron Judge happens to be the best hitter in baseball. Ohtani’s offense is also at an elite level, but he pitches at an elite level as well, justifying his massive contract. Soto, while a great hitter, does not pitch and is not comparable to Ohtani. At one point or another, executives will need to ask themselves this question: “Is Soto worth more than Ohtani?”

However, in Soto’s favor, these same executives are at the mercy of market conditions. This goes back to the basic economics lesson of supply and demand. To put it this way, there is nothing else currently on the market like Soto and there might not be anything on the market like him for a long time. In other words, the supply is very low and the demand for his talent is very high. At this point, we can disregard what Judge makes because this is no longer a comparison between the two. Rather, it is an auction for a powerful commodity that can easily fill an offensive need that faces several teams at this moment. These teams will need to pay up or miss a chance that may never come again.

In most cases, we wouldn’t expect Soto to get near $700 million. But the way MLB contracts are trending, Soto’s next contract regardless of his true value is unpredictable. However, I believe Soto will get close to $700 million, but not actually surmount it.

We can expect Steve Cohen, the richest MLB owner, to run up the bidding. But in the end, Soto is only one player who does one thing very well. I predict he will not make more than Ohtani.

1. A Mike Trout trade

In recent days, Mike Trout trade rumors have swirled online creating a fiery buzz. But while trading Trout last year would have been a great idea, the Angels may have waited a little too long. Yet another lost year has taken a significant toll on his value. Rumor has it, that if the Angels traded Trout, they would need to eat over half of his enormous contract.

However, it seems as though the thought has never come across Perry Minasian’s mind. Even after refusing to trade Ohtani and then losing him on the free agent market, Minasian was still hopelessly optimistic about the 2024 season. But all bets were off after Trout was injured. Minasian then tripled down refusing to trade any of the Angels’ key players with contracts expiring after 2025. So far this offseason, he has added Jorge Soler to aid his team in reaching the postseason.

But let’s say Minasian wanted to trade Trout, which isn’t the case. Any trade would need to be approved by Trout. His contract came with a no-trade clause and there is no indication that he wants to leave. He has expressed his love for the organization and a desire to stay with the Angels as recently as this year. Until Trout requests a trade or has a good year unhindered by injuries that boost his value, he will remain an Angel.