The notion that Aaron Judge is the current favorite to win the AL MVP award does not surprise anyone who pays close attention to Major League baseball. What is surprising is just how far ahead the Yankees slugger has already surged in front of his competition.
Judge's stellar play is a big reason why the New York finds Yankees themselves on top of the AL East at the moment. His offensive production has not skipped a single beat after losing the benefits of having Juan Soto alongside him in the heart of the Yankees' batting order.
His scorching start to the campaign is a big reason why the likes of Bobby Witt Jr, Gunnar Henderson and Mike Trout already find themselves out of the race to be the league's most valuable player. There's a lot of time for things to change, but Judge has a vice grip on the MVP race at the moment. A significant injury could bring the towering slugger back to the field, but if he stays healthy it could be a historic season for the face of the Yankees franchise. Here are three reasons why he's going to stay atop the race to be named AL MVP until the award is handed out.
1. Aaron Judge is controlling the strike zone better than ever
Judge has always been able to convert his massive frame into mammoth power at the plate. His propensity to chase pitches outside the zone has arguably been his only weakness. That's why his newfound plate discipline is causing opposing pitchers nightmares in 2025.
The 33-year-old outfielder has a .412 batting average and an OBP of .507 through his first 114 at-bats on the year. The eye test shows that Judge isn't falling prey to offspeed stuff away from him that falls outside the zone. That forces opponents to try to bust him inside or simply walk him and take their chances with the hitters behind him.
Neither is an ideal solution for any pitcher coming up against him. He has the quick hands required to turn on inside fastballs that do no get close enough to his body. His long arms also help him shoot balls on the outside corner the opposite way. Judge has enough power to push those balls over the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium.
Judge may have some runs of strikeouts as the weather starts to warm, but any improvement he has when it comes to putting the ball in play will yield meaningful results over a full season. This evolution in his offensive game is terrifying for opponents.
2. The Yankees have more protection around him than first believed
Judge is the engine that powers the middle of manager Aaron Boone's batting order, but his supporting cast is better than most fans expected it would be coming into the season. There's no Soto like star power next to him in the everyday lineup, but there are several players who are giving him above-average protection.
Austin Wells is enjoying the sort of breakout season that Brian Cashman and his front office were hoping for. He's already mashed five home runs and is second on the team behind Judge in RBIs. His batting average should come around as he enjoys some better luck on balls in play.
Ben Rice playing like a fringe All-Star to date is a bigger surprise. He's already slugged eight home runs and ranks third on the team in slugging percentage. His sweet left-handed swing has been a big plus for New York in the early going.
Paul Goldschmidt's hot start has also given Judge a lot more protection than expected. His current batting average of .363 is going to regress to the mean at some point, but his power numbers should also improve due to normalization. Add it all up and there's a lot of support for Judge in the middle of the Yankee lineup.
3. The Yankees will need him to play great all season long
Judge entered the season with a lot of pressure on his shoulders to carry the Yankees offense. The odds of New York running away from their competitors in the AL East are pretty small. That means New York will need Judge to play like an MVP all year long to win the division.
That's an important consideration for Judge's MVP credentials. Voters are influenced by statistics, and that gives Judge a potential advantage over his competitors. He's going to put up video game numbers if he manages to stay healthy. Many of those statistics will be accrued during what should be a high-profile pennant race.
The pressure on Judge might not be good for the Yankees' postseason prospects, but that's a challenge for another day. The need for him to be great will power him to record heights this regular season.