Good morning, baseball fans! Today, we have a full slate of games, starting with a matinee matchup between the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers. Predicting home runs isn't easy, but today, we're going big with three different calls, starting first with Aaron Judge, who has a juicy matchup ahead of him.
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1. Aaron Judge goes yard off Nestor Cortes
This prediction feels a bit like a 50/50 call no matter who Aaron Judge faces, but today, he has an extra-crispy elite matchup against southpaw Nestor Cortes. Cortes' arsenal consists of six pitches, but he throws a four-seam fastball (45.6 percent) and cutter (28 percent) with a combined 73 percent usage. Therefore, it shouldn't take much for somebody of Judge's caliber to sit dead-red and pick out a pitch to his liking.
In 2024, based on 64 plate appearances where Judge put a fastball from left-handed pitchers in play, he recorded a .396 ISO, .525 wOBA, an 80.6 percent hard-hit rate, and a 25 percent barrel rate off four-seamers. Likewise, he also recorded a .333 ISO, .403 wOBA, 77.8 percent hard-hit rate, and 22 percent barrel rate against LHP. Aaron Judge is goated for many reasons, but you can target matchups like these and not be surprised when court is in session later this afternoon.
2. Dylan Crews begins his breakout campaign in style
Judge was fun. Now, let's go to a team that is an underdog, with a prediction for rookie Dylan Crews, who has limited at-bats at the MLB level. Going up against the Washington Nationals is Jesus Luzardo, whose barrel percentage was in the bottom 88% of the league in limited action last year. Luzardo should offer a healthy dose of fastballs and changeups to right-handed batters today, and in Crews' cup of coffee last season, he exceled against both pitches.
Looking at four-seam fastballs against southpaws last year, Crews managed a .467 ISO and .497 wOBA, adding a low 12.5 percent strikeout rate in 16 batted ball events against that pitch. Against changeups, more of the same, .200 ISO, .432 wOBA, and a 60 percent line drive rate against the five changeups he put in a play a season ago. Crews is a breakout candidate for the 2025 season, and today, he is in line for a good matchup against a lefty. He batted .307 in home games against lefties in 27 plate appearances in 2024.
3. Heliot Ramos takes advantage of favorable park factors in Cincy
Another lefty pitcher vs. righty hitter today, and we're heading to The Great American "Small Park" this time. Cincinnati is home to one of the best hitter-friendly environments, and today, Heliot Ramos has an elite matchup against Nick Lodolo. We can expect sinkers, fastballs, and curveballs often from Lodolo, who threw those three pitches at a combined 83.6 percent of his arsenal. Let's break it down like this:
Ramos vs. LHP Fastballs: .459 ISO, .587 wOBA, 51.9 percent hard-hit rate
Ramos vs. LHP Sinkers: .364 ISO, .571 wOBA, 50 percent hard-hit rate
Ramos vs. LHP Curveballs: .500 ISO, .530 wOBA, 100 percent hard-hit rate
I would be shocked if Lodolo even attempted a curveball against Ramos today. If he leaves it up in the zone, it may be put into orbit and never land. Especially given that the game is in Cincinnati, Ramos has one of the more favorable matchups on the slate. Wind is expected to blow in slightly from right field, which shouldn't be enough to pose a problem for someone with Ramos's power.