Does Aaron Rodgers' promising final stretch with the Jets inspire optimism or delusion?

Now that Aaron Rodgers is officially under contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the natural inclination is to excavate through the remains of his 2024 season for data or kernels of information that indicate whether Rodgers has one more bounceback year left in him after he hit the concrete with a thud in 2024.

In Steeler-friendly forums, Rodgers’ final five games as a Jet has been emphasized as a forecast of what the Steelers could look forward to in 2025. Only time will tell where the reality lies, but there's a case to be made for and against that being the case.

The evidence for an Aaron Rodgers resurgence

Getting laid off by the New York Jets works in his favor. Like the Cleveland Browns, they eradicate all positive traits from their starting quarterbacks.

Ultimately, getting bounced by the Jets has proven to be more beneficial for the careers of quarterbacks than breaking up with a Kardashian. After Geno Smith and Sam Darnold parlayed their play into career years and contract extensions, Rodgers could make it NFL gospel if he shows out with the Steelers. 

During the aforementioned five-game stretch that ended Rodgers' stint with the Jets, the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer lit defenses up to the tune of nine touchdowns to three picks, averaged 254 yards per contest, and more closely resembled the Rodgers of old. The sample size is small, but man has found providence in more flimsier evidence.  

Aaron Rodgers' late season resurgence was smoke and mirrors

A cynical thesis on Rodgers’ late-season resurgence is that those numbers are a dead cat bounce. Rodgers threw seven of his nine touchdowns against Miami and Jacksonville in a pair of meaningless December showdowns. However, against playoff opponents with stout defenses, he was as mid as ever. In Week 17 against the Buffalo Bills, he was embarrassed in a 40-14 massacre. Rodgers was benched in the second half of that Dec. 29 matchup, after setting a new NFL record for sacks taken. Then, in Week 16, the Rodgers-led Jets offense could only muster 9 points and one touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams. 

An optimistic outlook on Rodgers is that as the season dragged on, he neared 100 percent playing on a surgically repaired ankle. So much was made of how Kirk Cousins’ surgically repaired Achilles tendon impacted his ability to drive the ball down the field, while Rodgers was recovering from the exact same injury. 

However, the area of the field where Pittsburgh struggled the most last season was inside the 20. Rodgers is expected to upgrade their close combat lethality when the field shrinks. Wilson was hindered by his inability to consistently strike across the middle of the field. As a result, Pittsburgh’s 48.6 red zone scoring percentage was fourth-lowest in the league. Yet, Rodgers' Jets weren't stellar either. In six more starts, Rodgers generated a 19:2 touchdown-interception ratio in the red zone to Wilson’s 10:2.  

After recovering from his torn Achilles, Rodgers moved like he was wearing ankle weights, which is a dynamic Smith is unaccustomed to based on his history with starting quarterbacks. However, he was still a superior off-platform thrower than a majority of the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. Yet, his success this season will be contingent on how tackles Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu protect him this season. 

Arthur Smith’s offenses are reliant on quick passing. Last season, Rodgers’ 2.79 average throw time was the NFL’s 36th-longest compared to Wilson's 3.03, which was the 10th-longest span. 

Ultimately, Rodgers comes with the same warts as before, but with a new audience invested in them being camouflaged by Mike Tomlin’s coaching brilliance. The evidence signals more of the same coming down the pike in 2025, but hope springs eternal even if it feels a bit naive.