ACC bubble watch: What do UNC, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU need to do to make tourney?

It’s been an odd year for the ACC. North Carolina, which is usually atop the conference, is fighting to get into the NCAA Tournament and Clemson has quickly become one of the strongest in the league. 

There are also quite a few bubble teams in the conference this year, including UNC, SMU, Wake Forest and Pitt. It’s going to be quite the task for all four to get in. But there’s a way some teams can separate themselves from the rest. 

Obviously, the ACC Tournament is going to be the difference. How teams play in there will go a long way to determining who deserves a spot in the field of 68. So let’s dive into what each of the ACC’s bubble teams need to do in order to get to the Big Dance. 

ACC bubble watch: What do UNC, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU need to do to make tourney?

The biggest problem with UNC, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU is combined, they're a combined 3-28 against Quad 1 teams. Now obviously Quad 1 games are the toughest. But those are closer to the teams you’ll see in the NCAA Tournament. 

When it comes to Quad 2 opponents, their combined record improves to 18-2, a much better showing. But what does that actually mean moving forward? Well for UNC, they probably have the toughest road to getting to the tourney.

While they’re one of the first four teams out in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, they’ve struggled as of late. They’ve won just two of the last seven games. They would almost certainly need to win out and have a good showing in the ACC tournament to convince the selection committee to give them a bid. 

The Tar Heels have just one Quad 2 game, one Quad 1 game and the rest are Quad 3 and 4, so that should be doable. They can still salvage this season, though the committee would probably need a conference tournament run to bump them into the field of 68.

Pittsburgh probably has the toughest road to getting into the tournament. They have won just two of the last 10 conference games. Because of their struggles in conference play, they’re most likely going to need an ACC Tournament run and possibly even a conference championship to get in. It’s a long shot for them to get in otherwise. 

Wake Forest and SMU have the best odds of the four bubble teams. Both have 10 wins in conference play and won the games they should have. The only problem is they don’t have a lot of quality games left to make up traction. 

There’s a way both teams get in even if neither win the ACC championship. The good thing is the ACC is down this year, but is still overall better than the non-power conferences, so odds are they have quite a few teams in. 

For the Demon Deacons and the Mustangs, they should be focused on finishing out the season strong. If they can do that and string together a couple wins in the conference tournament, they should find themselves in the field of 68 come March.