ACC Championship Game scenarios: How Clemson can get to Charlotte after beating Pitt

It was hardly pretty, but the Clemson Tigers gutted out a second straight road win on Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh put the clamps on Garrett Riley's offense in the second half, allowing the Panthers to take an improbable 20-17 lead with under two minutes to play in the fourth quarter. But when his team needed it most, Cade Klubnik made some magic, taking off for a 50-yard touchdown run to move Clemson to 8-2 overall and 7-1 in the ACC.

With two losses already on the resume, Clemson entered this weekend with little to no margin for error in both the ACC and College Football Playoff races. But while they kept hope alive on both fronts thanks to Klubnik's heroics, Dabo Swinney's team still faces an uphill battle. The playoff committee's lack of respect for the ACC had Clemson buried all the way at 20th in this week's CFP rankings, behind several other two losses teams from the SEC and Big 12. And thanks to the way the ACC decides its tiebreakers, the Tigers could be on the outside looking in for a conference title as well. Here's what has to happen for Clemson to find its way to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.

What are the current ACC standings after Clemson win over Pitt?

First, let's quickly go over the lay of the land. Clemson's win hands Pitt its third conference loss, effectively turning the ACC into a four-horse race. Here are the current standings:

SMU is in action on Saturday against Boston College, while Louisville travels to take on Stanford. Miami, meanwhile, is off following last weekend's loss to Georgia Tech.

The top two teams in the standings will meet to play for the conference title. SMU is in pole position, needing to just win out against BC, Virginia and Cal. Clemson is in the clubhouse at 7-1, having played all eight of its conference games (and with non-con matchups against The Citadel and South Carolina remaining). Miami is the other one-loss team right now, but because of the ACC's tiebreaker system, right now the 'Canes would be the ones facing the Mustangs in Charlotte.

What are the ACC tiebreakers?

Here's the ACC's tiebreaker procedure, in descending order.

1. Head-to-head competition between teams
2. Winning percentage vs. common opponents
3. Win percentage vs. common opponents based upon of finish (overall conference winning percentage, with ties broken) 
4. Combined winning percentage of conference opponents
5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular-season games
6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee

Miami and Clemson won't play this season, so we can throw out the first head-to-head tiebreaker. That moves us to winning percentage vs. common opponents, and here's where the Hurricanes have their edge. Because Louisville lost to Miami but beat Clemson, Miami has the higher winningn percentage against the four common opponents on the two teams' schedule, meaning that the 'Canes would have the edge in any two-way tiebreaker with the Tigers. (SMU also has a win over Louisville, so even if the Mustangs lose over the next three weeks, Clemson would lose any hypothetical three-way tiebreaker.)

How can Clemson get to the ACC Championship Game?

That means that, for Clemson to have any shot at an ACC title, they're going to need either a little bit more help from Miami or a lot of help from SMU. Asking for two losses in three weeks from the Mustangs feels like a lot, so let's instead focus on the former scenario. Miami closes the year at home against Wake Forest and on the road against Syracuse. If the Hurricanes lose at least one of those games, Clemson will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. If Miami wins out, however — and SMU avoids losing twice in its final three games — the Tigers will be left out.