All season long, every team across the college basketball landscape has been jockeying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Some are already locks to make it and are more concerned with securing a top seed. Others still have work to do to warrant consideration from the selection committee.
Unlike most years, the North Carolina Tar Heels are squarely in the latter group. UNC has had one of the most frustrating seasons of any team in the nation, with numerous close losses to top teams but not much in the way of quality wins.
Carolina looked good in blowing out NC State on Wednesday night, but this Wolfpack team is nowhere near as good as the one that made a shocking Final Four run last year. Led by a pair of DJs (Burns and Horne), last year's Pack began their Cinderella story by marching through the ACC Tournament with five wins in five days, but now that the conference has expanded by adding SMU, Cal and Stanford, there's a good chance that Kevin Keatts' club won't even have a chance to defend its crown, since three ACC teams won't even be invited.
That's of little concern to the Tar Heels, who desperately need a strong finish to have a chance to make the Big Dance. Bracketologists around the country are in agreement that at the moment, Carolina is one of the first teams out, which makes a good showing at the ACC Tournament of paramount importance.
There are still five regular season games to go, and other than a home game against Duke to close the season, the Heels should be favored in every game. That means they'll have an opportunity to make up some ground on the teams above them, but before that happens, we thought we'd take a look at what the conference tournament bracket would look like if the season ended today. What kind of path would the Heels face?
UNC's projected path through the ACC Tournament if the season ended today
As of today, Carolina is in sixth place in the ACC. They're a game ahead of Stanford, but the Cardinal have the tiebreaker due to their head-to-head win over the Heels a month ago.
It will be tough for Carolina to finish better than sixth, because the two teams ahead of them are each up by two games. One of those is Wake Forest, who also has the tiebreaker by virtue of their own one-point win over the Heels. The other is SMU, whom UNC beat and therefore has the tiebreaker over.
The top four teams in the ACC receive a double-bye, while seeds 5-9 get a single bye. The other six teams will each need to win five games in five days to cut down the nets, just as NC State did last year.
Assuming Carolina faces the best possible seed in each round, here's what their path would look like.
ACC Tournament Second Round
(6) UNC vs. (11) Virginia
Wednesday, March 12, 9:30 p.m.
The Heels will play the Cavaliers for the first time in the post-Tony Bennett era on Saturday in the Dean Dome. Virginia has fallen off severely without their future Hall of Fame coach, though they have played better lately with three straight wins before falling to Duke on Monday.
Losing to Virginia in their first ACC Tournament game would almost surely clinch Carolina's fate as a non-Tournament team, while a win would give them a chance to pick up a quality win in the next round.
ACC Tournament Quarterfinals
(3) Louisville vs. (6) UNC
Thursday, March 13, 9:30 p.m.
If UNC is going to make a run through the ACC Tournament, it will probably take a series of revenge games to do it. First up is Louisville, who led by just one over the Heels with three minutes left when they met on New Year's Day, but ran away at the end to win by 13.
The Cardinals are one of the best stories in college basketball under new coach Pat Kelsey. They're 20-6 and 13-2 in ACC play, instantly getting back on the map after two abysmal years under Kenny Payne. Joe Lunardi currently has Louisville as a 7-seed in his latest Bracketology, so this would be one of the best wins of their season if the Heels were able to find a way.
ACC Tournament Semifinals
(2) Clemson vs. (6) UNC
Friday, March 14, 9:30 p.m.
Getting through Louisville would give UNC a chance to avenge its worst performance of the season, an 85-65 beatdown at Clemson. The Heels led 23-21 midway through the first half in that one, then got blown out of the gym by a career-best performance by Tigers center Viktor Lakhin, who hit four threes and blocked five shots.
The Tigers made the Elite Eight last year, and they may be the one ACC team not named Duke that's most equipped to do it again. Brad Brownell's group has won nine of 10 and 12 of 14, a run that includes a super impressive win over the Blue Devils. If there's one saving grace for UNC in this one, it's that this game will be in Charlotte and not Littlejohn Coliseum
ACC Tournament Championship
(1) Duke vs. (6) UNC
Saturday, March 15, 8:30 p.m.
Beating Louisville and Clemson to get to the finals would be more than enough to get the Heels into the Big Dance, but an unlikely win over Duke would guarantee that they avoid a trip to Dayton for the First Four.
Duke beat the heck out of the Heels in their first meeting. Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel vastly outplayed their more experienced counterparts, and a late Carolina run did nothing except make the final score look better than it should have.
UNC and Duke have met for the ACC Tournament title 11 times, by far the most in conference history. Duke has won the last three, in 1999, 2001 and 2011. The last time Carolina won was in 1998, when they broke a 68-68 tie by ending the game on a 15-0 run. That team, led by Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter, went on to make the Final Four.