Updated AFC Playoff Picture after Steelers outlast Ravens, Anthony Richardson's redemption in Week 11
By Kinnu Singh
“The football season starts after Thanksgiving.”
Bill Belichick’s oft-used cliché may not hold true for the perennial bottom dwellers that find themselves eliminated before the leafs change color. For the contenders, however, it serves as a reminder and a warning.
Early in the campaign, teams are still making adjustments and attempting to establish an identity. As the league rounds into the final quarter of the 2024 season, great teams will begin to hit their stride. From here, games only get tougher. Each win begins to matter more, injuries begin to pile up, and desperate teams on the fringes fight harder.
Week 11 offered a slate of several crucial AFC matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the Baltimore Ravens to battle for divisional supremacy. The Ravens entered the game with the top-ranked scoring offense, while the Steelers entered with the second-best scoring defense. In the battle of an immovable object against an unstoppable force, the immovable object won.
Pittsburgh managed to pull off an 18-16 victory without scoring a single touchdown. Steelers kicker Chris Boswell made five field goals, including three 50-plus yard attempts, while the defense stopped Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson on a last-minute two-point conversion attempt to tie the game. With an 8-2 record, Pittsburgh now has a comfortable 2½-game lead for the AFC North division title and a 98 percent playoff probability, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Updated AFC Playoff Picture after Week 11: Steelers reign, Mahomes-Allen duel
Seed | Team | Record | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
No. 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-0* | >99% |
No. 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-2 | 98% |
No. 3 | Buffalo Bills | 8-2* | >99% |
No. 4 | Houston Texans | 6-4 | 95% |
No. 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-3* | 78% |
No. 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-4 | 95% |
No. 7 | Denver Broncos | 5-5* | 61% |
* still in progress
The Houston Texans will need to break their losing streak on Monday Night Football if they want to hold onto their AFC South lead. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson returned from his short-lived benching in dazzling fashion against the New York Jets. The back-and-forth game saw several lead changes. After taking an early 13-point lead, the Colts found themselves trailing by 8 points in the fourth quarter. Richardson snapped the team’s three-game losing streak with 270 yards and three total touchdowns. The Colts improved to a 5-6 record with the 27-26 victory, while Aaron Rodgers and Co. dropped to 3-8. Indianapolis is now on the bubble with a 37 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The late window featured battles between some of the premier quarterbacks in the league. The Buffalo Bills hosted the Kansas City Chiefs for another duel between quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. For Buffalo, a victory seems to be the only viable path to steal away the top seed from the undefeated Chiefs.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are desperately attempting to keep their playoff hopes alive against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. While a win would improve their playoff probability to 35 percent, a loss would drop it to 11 percent.
The Denver Broncos stormed out to an early lead against the Atlanta Falcons in what’s shaping out to be an upset victory. The Chargers and Broncos are both attempting to hold onto their positions for a Wild Card spot.
AFC Wild Card standings after Week 11: Ravens drop, Chargers and Broncos hanging on
Seed | Team | Record | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
No. 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-3* | 78% |
No. 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-4 | 95% |
No. 7 | Denver Broncos | 5-5* | 61% |
— | Indianapolis Colts | 5-6 | 36% |
— | Miami Dolphins | 4-6 | 11% |
— | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-6* | 22% |
— | New York Jets | 3-8 | 3% |
* still in progress
The Miami Dolphins managed to keep hope alive with a 34-19 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins displayed a new offensive approach, abandoning their high-flying attack in order to sustain drives and control the clock. Miami is clinging onto a 12 percent playoff probability, but they have one of the easiest schedules through the remainder of the season.
The Cleveland Browns’ campaign continued to spiral further out of control against the New Orleans Saints. Browns rookie offensive lineman Dawand Jones suffered a season-ending ankle injury, only exacerbating the team’s offensive line issues. Saints tight end Taysom Hill dissected the Browns defense, dropping them an abysmal 2-8 record.
The Tennessee Titans fell victim to the Minnesota Vikings. Titans quarterback Will Levis was sacked five times, and the team lost 93 yards on 13 penalties. While some of those calls were controversial, it’s hard to win with that many infractions.
In a battle of two big cats, the Detroit Lions established their dominance over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 52-6 trouncing made two things very clear: the Lions are dominant, and the Jaguars need to make sweeping changes. Starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence was out, but he wouldn’t have been able to save them. Jacksonville’s defense allowed touchdowns on seven consecutive drives to start the game.
The New England Patriots put up a respectable fight with another impressive performance from rookie quarterback Drake Maye, but the experience and talent of the Los Angeles Rams was too much to overcome. A miscommunication on offense led to Maye’s game-sealing clinch, dropping New England to a 3-8 record and last place in the AFC East.
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