There were two ideal outcomes for Alabama when it came to the ACC Championship Game. 1. An SMU win. 2. A Clemson win in a blowout. The SMU win would limit bid stealers. The Clemson blowout would diminish SMU's standing enough to justify Alabama's place in the College Football Playoff.
For three quarters, it looked like option No. 2 would come to fruition. The Tigers jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the first half and led the Mustangs 31-14 going into the fourth quarter. Then all hell broke loose as SMU stormed back to tie the game at 31 with 16 seconds remaining.
An SMU win would be a fine outcome for Alabama, so the comeback wasn't exactly a problem. The Mustangs losing on a last second field goal despite the comeback was.
In the worst of both worlds, Clemson stole a bid as the ACC champion and SMU showed enough grit to potentially warrant a spot in the CFP despite their loss.
The question is whether the committee values SMU's comeback or not.
College Football Playoff debate between Alabama and SMU got messy with Clemson's ACC title win
As it stands, Oregon is likely the No. 1 overall seed with Georgia boosting up to No. 2 as the SEC champion. Then Arizona State, Boise State and Clemson will take the other automatic bids.
At-large bids are essentially locked in for Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee. That leaves just two open spots. We expect Indiana to hold onto one of those. The debate between SMU and Alabama is tougher to sort out.
Alabama's CFP hopes now hinge on the selection committee dropping SMU behind them. That would mean punishing the Mustangs for a loss in an extra game, something chairman Warde Manuel has indicated they don't want to do.
At the same time, SMU looked outclassed by Clemson for most of the game. If the committee bases their rankings on the ceiling of any of these teams, the Crimson Tide will be in. It's just not guaranteed that's how they will make their decision.
Waiting for the CFP rankings could have been a relatively stress free experience for Kalen DeBoer and his team. But the outcome of the ACC title game has made it anything but.