In less than a week, we will have finalized the first 12-team College Football Playoff field. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there are eight teams with a 99-percent or better chance of getting in, as well as eight more with better than a 25-percent shot at making the field. While three SEC teams are locks to make it in when it comes to Georgia, Tennessee and Texas, Alabama is not among them...
Alabama enters conference championship weekend with a 9-3 (5-3) record. The Crimson Tide have quality wins over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri, but losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Only the Tennessee defeat is of quality. The Selection Committee ranked them and seeded the Crimson Tide No. 11 in the penultimate rankings. FPI gives them a 64.1-percent chance.
These are the College Football Playoff rankings heading into conference championship weekend.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
- Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
- Clemson Tigers (9-3)
- BYU Cougars (10-2)
- Missouri Tigers (9-3)
- UNLV Rebels (10-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
- Syracuse Orange (9-3)
- Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
- Army Black Knights (10-1)
- Memphis Tigers (10-2)
Heading into conference championship weekend, this is what the 12-team playoff bracket looks like.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)
Based on the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, these are the first four teams out.
- 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
- 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
- 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
So with all that information, what needs to happen for Alabama to get the last spot into the playoff?
What needs to happen for Alabama to make the College Football Playoff
Alabama is in a group of eight teams with worse than a 99-percent chance to make it into the playoff, but better than a 20-percent chance. In order, it goes Boise State (69 percent), SMU (67.5 percent), Alabama (64.1 percent), Iowa State (54.2 percent), Arizona State (43.8 percent), Clemson (43.7 percent), UNLV (28.8 percent) and Miami (21.7 percent). Only Alabama and Miami are done playing.
If we assume chalk with every favorite winning on Saturday, here is what the playoff field might be.
- Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
Alabama would get in comfortably over teams on the outside looking in like Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The biggest wrinkle that could potentially unfurl is what would happen if three-loss Clemson beat one-loss SMU in the ACC Championship. The Tigers would probably be the No. 12 seed, leaving it up for discussion if three-loss Alabama gets in over a two-loss ACC runner-up in SMU.
Since SMU has a slightly better playoff percentage chance over Alabama at 67.5 percent, you have to wonder what the Selection Committee is going to try to do. Would they punish a two-loss, Power Four conference runner-up who only has quality defeats to BYU and Clemson, but no quality wins? Alabama would still have three wins of quality, but two bad losses among their three. It will be so hard.
If we went by the best team argument, Alabama would beat SMU head-to-head. The Crimson Tide offer a wide array of variance as a team, but their ceiling is still higher than SMU's. If we went by the most deserving, then I think SMU has a real shot to get in over Alabama. Fortunately for Alabama, they would get the helmet bump over SMU, all things equal. Surely, Notre Dame woudl have that...
I have a hard time seeing the CFP drop SMU five spots with a loss, but Alabama keeps getting breaks. To put is as simply as I can, Alabama will make the playoff if SMU wins the ACC. If Clemson wins the ACC, then it would be up for debate between Alabama, Miami and SMU for the last spot in with Ole Miss and South Carolina being comfortably back of them. SMU should get in, but it may be Alabama.
There are only 16 teams still alive to make the playoff, if we wanted to include Miami at 21.7 percent.