While one WNBA semifinals series is over, the other — between the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces and No. 6 seed Indiana Fever — is heading to a winner-takes-all Game 5 on Tuesday night in Las Vegas after Indiana managed to even the series on Sunday.
Will the Aces, who were the hottest team at the end of the regular season, advance to the WNBA Finals like most people predicted before this series, or will the Fever shock everyone and make it to the Finals despite Caitlin Clark's extended absence?
Here are four factors that will determine Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals series between the Fever and Aces.
Can Aliyah Boston make life difficult for A'ja Wilson?
You're never going to be able to completely shut down four-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson. That'd be like expecting to stop a train by putting aluminum foil on the track.
But if there's anyone who can provide some level of resistance to Wilson, it's Fever center Aliyah Boston.
Wilson scored 31 points in Game 4, but Boston got going on the other end, scoring 24 points and pulling down 14 rebounds. If Boston can protect the paint and force Wilson to keep shooting from outside the restricted area, that increases the likelihood of misses, while Boston can try to draw fouls on Wilson on the other end by taking the ball strong to the basket.
Boston doesn't need to outplay Wilson. She just needs to keep the matchup close, allowing her teammates to outplay Wilson's teammates.
Can Kelsey Mitchell continue her heater?
Without Clark, the Fever have been very reliant on Kelsey Mitchell. Thankfully for Indiana, she's playing like one of the best players in the entire league.
Mitchell was on fire in the two wins for Indiana in this series. In Game 1, she was 12-for-23 from the floor for 34 points in an upset win. Vegas limited her in the next two games, but she shot 45 percent from on Sunday. In seven playoff games this season, Mitchell has shot 40 percent or better five times, with Indiana winning four of those games.
The math here feels easy. If Mitchell is hitting shots, Indiana stands a good chance at winning.
So, what can Vegas do to counter that? Send pressure at Mitchell. Double her and make Odyssey Sims beat you. Sims showed in Game 4 that she's still capable of that, but if I'm Vegas, I'm letting Sims take open shots all day if it means I can slow down Mitchell. Maybe Sims beats you, but that's less of a certainty than Mitchell beating you.
Can Vegas get a good showing from Jewell Loyd?
While she's still coming off the bench, Jewell Loyd is playing starter's minutes in this series, including being on the floor for 32 minutes in Game 4.
Loyd took the most field goal attempts she's had in this series, but went just 2-for-8 from the floor. Vegas was outscored by 10 points with Loyd on the floor.
We know Jackie Young will perform well, but for Vegas to win, either Loyd or Chelsea Gray has to step up. Gray has to also run the offense though, while Loyd basically just needs to step off the bench and score. Vegas needs her to do that one thing as well as she can do it in Game 5.
Can NaLyssa Smith stay out of foul trouble?
Here's a problem for Vegas: NaLyssa Smith has committed four or more fouls in three consecutive games. Vegas needs her on the floor, so avoiding early fouls on Tuesday night will be crucial.
That's because the depth in the frontcourt for Vegas remains an issue. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus' return was supposed to mitigate some of that, but she hasn't played since Game 2 of the series. Kiah Stokes and Megan Gustafson have both seen the floor, but Vegas probably doesn't want either out there too much.
Smith is actually capable of making plays with the ball, something you aren't getting from the three backup bigs. Her presence on the court expands what the Aces offense is capable of doing.