25-under-25: Alperen Şengün is way ahead of schedule

Alperen Şengün becoming a good NBA player was obvious from the start — literally from the start; he posted 11 points, six rebounds, two assists and three steals in just 18 minutes in his first-ever NBA game. That immediate production wasn't a huge surprise; coming out of the 2021 draft, he was viewed mostly as a "high floor, low ceiling" prospect, meaning he wouldn't likely achieve star status, but would likely be a positive NBA player with a productive career.

But pretty quickly, it became clear that Şengün's ceiling needed to be reassessed. He surpassed that original label in his rookie season, leveling up to "above-average NBA starter" in year two, then leveling up again to "borderline All-Star" in year three. If that seems like a rapid ascension, that's because it is a rapid ascension. Şengün has made strides in every major aspect of his game each season he's played. Now entering year four, Şengün is on the precipice of true stardom — "carry a team himself" stardom — but the type of game he plays might make that last leap the toughest one.

Don't get it twisted, though; if Şengün stays the same player for the rest of his career, that's still a really good player. History tells us he won't stay this same player, though.

The progress came swiftly for Şengün; before anyone could blink, he was in the thick of Most Improved Player conversations (he would eventually finish third) with season splits of 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.

You know in superhero movies when the kid with powers finally learns how to harness their abilities and then gets kind of crazy with it, doing flips in the air and stuff just to find out what exactly they can get away with? That's what Alperen Şengün's development has been like. According to himself, on The Old Man and the Three podcast (RIP) his game in Turkey was limited; "When I was playing over there, in Europe, I was just finishing in the paint. I didn't have any mid-range shot, I didn't have any 3-point shot."

Once he landed in Houston after the Rockets drafted him 16th overall, the one-dimensionality of his game faded, and a versatile, graceful big man emerged. He kept adding new moves, shot types, and passes to his arsenal just to see what would work; it pretty much all worked, and Şengün's propensity for experimentation made him a nightmare to defend in the post (and recently, outside the post too.) Funky floaters, one-legged fall-aways, behind-the-head passes. These moves, which he broke out on occasion during his rookie and sophomore seasons, became staples of his game by year three. Who knows what we'll see in year four?

Plenty of centers in the NBA can score. A decent amount of centers can pass. Few of them can consistently score and distribute at the volume Şengün did last season, and that ability — to be a hub which an offense is built around — has already separated him from most of his peers, even at 22 years old. He was fourth in scoring among qualified centers last year, trailing just Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama. He was third behind just Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis in assists among centers.

In short, Şengün is already among a short list of NBA centers that are the focal point of their respective offenses. There was no better example of that than Sengun's dominant outing against the Lakers when he scored 31 in a dominant Rockets win. His whole arsenal was on display, from free-throw line floaters to poster dunks to beautifully run pick-and-rolls.

And if all the moves described in the last section sound familiar, you're right; they sound like the aforementioned Nikola Jokic. "We kind of play the same game," Şengün said on The Old Man and the Three podcast (RIP) saying that the comparison doesn't bother him, while also making clear that he wants to distance himself from the label of "Baby Jokic" label the more time he spends in the league.

At this pace, he will. Şengün is turning into a force of his own, creating his own identity in Houston with a Rockets team that keeps adding young talent to surround their young center with.

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What's next for Alperen Şengün and the Rockets?

There are two clear areas of improvement for Şengün in year four; a more reliable outside shot, and a more consistent presence on the defensive end. Şengün moves so well for a center that defensive improvement is possible; he won't ever be a rim-protector because of how much of his game comes below the basket, but his footwork is so advanced that he should be able to be at least an average defender against fellow bigs in the paint.

As for a 3-pointer, Şengün has shown an ability to make a 3 every now and then, but it's been mostly an afterthought during his three seasons. For his career, he has shot 1.4 3s a game at a 28.4 percent clip. He doesn't need to become Karl-Anthony Towns, but possessing at least the threat of a 3-point shot adds extra depth to his game. Look at Nikola Jokic; he will never be a high-volume shooter, but he's a good enough shooter that he can still pull defenders out of the paint on occasion.

Team-wise, the Rockets should be right in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture. They might not be on the Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Dallas tier of contenders, but they should end in the tier right below those teams, especially if Şengün continues to refine a game that's already refined well beyond his years.

Alperen Şengün ranked No. 12 on FanSided's 2024-25 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.