Andy Reid plays into Chiefs nauseating underdog mentality he can't possibly believe

The AFC Championship game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs is shaping up to be another thrilling installment in the rivalry between two of the most dominant teams in the NFL this season. While this matchup already carries high stakes, it becomes even more intriguing with both quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, coming off stellar campaigns. Head coach Andy Reid, however, has taken an interesting approach to Sunday’s showdown.

“I presume the Bills will probably be favored, but that’s all right. We do our thing.”

Reid’s comment has sparked some debate among fans, with many wondering if he’s downplaying Kansas City’s recent dominance — not just in the league but specifically over the Bills. While Buffalo entered their Nov. 17 regular-season game as (-2.5) favorites, the Chiefs head into this AFC Championship matchup as (-1.5) favorites, a subtle yet significant shift in perception.

Does Andy Reid really think the Chiefs are underdogs?

Even as Reid adopts an underdog mentality, the numbers tell a different story. Patrick Mahomes holds a perfect 3-0 playoff record against Josh Allen, besting him in nearly every statistical category, including completion percentage, passing yards per game, touchdown passes, and quarterback rating. On top of that, the Chiefs finished the regular season with a better record and earned a first-round bye, giving them additional rest heading into the playoffs.

It’s no secret that these two teams are poised to deliver another classic in their growing history of postseason battles. But Reid’s attempt to cast the Chiefs in a lesser light heading into this game may not be entirely accurate. Historically, Kansas City has consistently entered matchups against Buffalo as the betting favorite. In their 2021 AFC Championship game, the Chiefs were (-3.0) favorites. The 2022 Divisional Round and their 2024 regular-season clash both saw Kansas City favored at (-2.5).

While Reid and the Chiefs might be extending some respect to the Bills — who won their regular-season meeting 30-21 — it’s clear the numbers paint a different picture. Kansas City remains the team to beat, especially when considering their postseason track record against Buffalo.

For Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott, Sunday represents more than just another playoff game. It’s a chance to end their three-game losing streak against the Chiefs and, more importantly, to put Buffalo in position to end a 31-year Super Bowl drought. Whether the Bills can rise to the occasion remains to be seen, but Reid’s narrative of Kansas City as the underdog might not be fooling anyone.