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AP Top 25: 3 teams who will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings, 3 lower

The Associated Press has spoken, but is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee even listening?

By John Buhler

Omar Cooper Jr., Zeke Berry, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan Wolverines
Omar Cooper Jr., Zeke Berry, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan Wolverines / Justin Casterline/GettyImages
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With the College Football Playoff rankings now being released, the AP Top 25 Poll is no longer as important as it had been earlier in the season. Even though there are roughly five times as many AP voters than there are in the Selection Committee, those ballots can be a little more biased than what the baker's dozen come up with just outside of Dallas. There is method to the madness!

The Selection Committee does everything in its power to eliminate preseason biases that still impact the AP Top 25 Poll to varying degrees. While both rankings will eventually become mirror images of each other, it is always interesting to see how the Selection Committee responds to what the AP tries to figure out. With more and more teams in the playoff mix, this is getting harder and harder.

Here is who the Associated Press decided were the 25 best teams in college football for Week 12.

  1. Oregon Ducks: 10-0 (1,550 points, 62 first-place votes)
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 8-1 (1,484 points)
  3. Texas Longhorns: 8-1 (1,409 points)
  4. Penn State Nittany Lions: 8-1 (1,274 points)
  5. Indiana Hoosiers: 10-0 (1,273 points)
  6. Tennessee Volunteers: 8-1 (1,270 points)
  7. BYU Cougars: 9-0 (1,161 points)
  8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8-1 (1,095 points)
  9. Alabama Crimson Tide: 7-2 (1,036 points)
  10. Ole Miss Rebels: 8-2 (966 points)
  11. Georgia Bulldogs: 7-2 (964 points)
  12. Miami Hurricanes: 9-1 (907 points)
  13. Boise State Broncos: 8-1 (839 points)
  14. SMU Mustangs: 8-1 (788 points)
  15. Texas A&M Aggies: 7-2 (674 points)
  16. Army Black Knights: 9-0 (533 points)
  17. Clemson Tigers: 7-2 (524 points)
  18. Colorado Buffaloes: 7-2 (463 points)
  19. Washington State Cougars: 8-1 (456 points)
  20. Kansas State Wildcats: 7-2 (333 points)
  21. LSU Tigers: 6-3 (265 points)
  22. Louisville Cardinals: 6-3 (240 points)
  23. South Carolina Gamecocks: 6-3 (203 points)
  24. Missouri Tigers: 7-2 (176 points)
  25. Tulane Green Wave: 8-2 (98 points)

Here is every other team the Associated Press gave at least one vote to heading into Week 12.

  • Iowa State Cyclones (92 points)
  • Arizona State Sun Devils (35 points)
  • Pittsburgh Panthers (18 points)
  • Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (14 points)
  • UNLV Rebels (10 points)

And based on how the AP voted, this would be the 12-team playoff field heading into this weekend.

  1. Oregon Ducks: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns: 8-1 (Projected SEC champion)
  3. BYU Cougars: 9-0 (Projected Big 12 champion)
  4. Miami Hurricanes: 9-0 (Projected ACC champion)
  5. Ohio State Buckeyes: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
  6. Penn State Nittany Lions: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  7. Indiana Hoosiers: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  8. Tennessee Volunteers: 8-1 (Projected SEC runner-up)
  9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8-1 (Projected national independent at-large)
  10. Alabama Crimson Tide: 7-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
  11. Ole Miss Rebels: 8-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
  12. Boise State Broncos: 8-1 (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And these would be the first four teams out of the playoff heading into the next week of the season.

  • 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 7-2 (SEC)
  • 14. SMU Mustangs: 8-1 (Projected ACC runner-up)
  • 15. Texas A&M Aggies: 7-2 (SEC)
  • 16. Army Black Knights: 9-0 (Projected AAC champion)

With all of that information, here are six teams I think the Selection Committee will rank differently.

No. 12 Miami Hurricanes will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

Miami was ranked No. 12 by the AP after Saturday's tough road loss to Georgia Tech. Because the Hurricanes are ranked inside of the top 12, they would not be bid stealing, but rather seed stealing. Miami would go up to the No. 4 seed as the fourth highest-ranked conference champion. It may make some people feel a certain way about the playoff picture that is slowly starting to come together.

Although the road loss to Georgia Tech is not good, I struggle to find the ACC frontrunner for most of the season to be on the cusp of not getting in on its own merit. This is because the ACC is technically an ESPN product, the network that puts on the College Football Playoff. I would venture to guess that Miami would be as high as No. 10 entering this week. SMU might be ranked higher as well, but Miami is interesting.

The Hurricanes may be in the playoff field, but are a lock this week to be firmly inside of the top 16.

No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

Georgia got its brains beat in by Ole Miss on the road in Oxford. The Dawgs were ranked No. 3 and seeded No. 2. According to the latest AP Poll, they would be the first team out, despite being ranked No. 11 because No. 12 Miami and No. 13 Boise State would occupy two automatic qualifier spots. I fully suspect Georgia is going to be one of the first four teams out, probably one of the first two out.

The Dawgs' went from being a borderline playoff lock heading into Saturday's game at Ole Miss, to being on the brink of playoff elimination heading into the Tennessee game at home next week. They have two quality wins over Clemson and Texas, but two losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. Those defeats might be of quality, but you have to wonder if Georgia's questionable resume will hold up.

I think Georgia could be ranked as low as No. 14 heading into its most important game of the season.

No. 18 Colorado Buffaloes will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

I may be wrong in this, but I think Colorado could be a little bit higher than No. 18 in the upcoming College Football Playoff rankings. It may be quite the climb for them up from No. 20 last week and into the first four teams out range but I think that is where they belong. They feel like a more realistic playoff threat than No. 17 Clemson. No. 16 Army is still very much in it, but give me the Buffaloes!

It seems important for the Selection Committee to have two teams in each Power Four league that can get a top-12 ranking, in addition to a top-12 seed if they win their conference. BYU is in a position to do that in the Big 12, but with how Iowa State and Kansas State have played of late, you have to wonder if Colorado is the team that would need to be propped up a bit by the Selection Committee.

It would not shock me if Colorado was ranked No. 16 and is one of the first four teams out in Week 12.

No. 7 BYU Cougars will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

Yes, BYU is going to be seeded inside of the top four, probably at No. 3, after what happened this past weekend. The Cougars are still perfect, but nearly lost The Holy War to arch rival Utah, who is in complete disarray right now. For the time being, this makes things far less complicated when it comes to playoff seeding, as neither Colorado nor Boise State give off the vibes of a top-four seed.

However, I have a hard time seeing the Selection Committee giving BYU a big boost up two spots, simply because they did not lose to Utah. Yes, they should go ahead of Miami and Georgia, but I think there is a chance the Selection Committee likes a few Big Ten and SEC teams more than they do the projected favorite to come out of the Big 12. I would think BYU would still be ranked inside the top 12.

BYU may be ranked No. 9 in back-to-back weeks because other tams won way more impressively.

No. 14 SMU Mustangs will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

There might be an argument for SMU to be the No. 4 seed this week. The Mustangs were ranked No. 13 and were the first team out last week in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. Although other teams ranked far ahead of them lost like Georgia and Miami, I could see the Ponies being ranked ahead of the Dawgs and Canes heading into next week. Would SMU get the AQ spot?

The Mustangs being on a bye this past week did not help them as much as we thought it would. There was too much chaos going on during a week in which they were off for us to keep SMU at the front of our minds. Still, I have a hard time seeing the Selection Committee docking an 8-1 SMU team that obliterated Pittsburgh not that long ago, and still does not have a loss in conference play just yet.

If Georgia and SMU switched places in the upcoming playoff rankings, I would have no issue at all.

No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

This is getting out of hand, to be honest. While I love the fact that Indiana is very much in the College Football Playoff picture at 10-0, do you really think they are the fifth best team in the country? I felt they were properly ranked and seeded last week at No. 8 and No. 9 respectively in the initial playoff rankings. However, I am really struggling to make sense of teams being ranked from No. 4 to No. 7...

We look at the resume that the Hoosiers have put forth up to this point. They have won every game they have played, but up until last weekend vs. a very pedestrian Michigan team, Indiana had been winning with style points. My biggest concern with this team is that it will get ugly when they finally play a Big Ten team of real substance like Ohio State. We will know the truth in about two weekends.

Indiana should be about a spot or two lower than where the Associated Press has the slotted in.

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