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AP Top 25: 3 teams College Football Playoff will rank higher, 3 lower in penultimate

Look for the next College Football Playoff rankings to differ slightly from the latest AP Top 25 Poll.

By John Buhler

R.J. Mickens, LaNorris Sellers, Clemson Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks
R.J. Mickens, LaNorris Sellers, Clemson Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks / Isaiah Vazquez/GettyImages
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Now that the regular season is over, we have the latest AP Top 25 Poll to sink our teeth into. While it no longer is our guiding light in the college football world, it does give us a glimpse into what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee may decide in its penultimate rankings. For the most part, the Associated Press got it right heading into championship weekend, but it is still not perfect.

So what I want to do this afternoon is take a look at the latest AP Top 25 Poll and figure out how the College Football Playoff rankings might differ when they come out in two days. Again, we are talking about the slightest of micro-adjustments. However, every single ranking matters. Only so many teams are getting in. With only seven at-large spots available, somebody will be left so disappointed.

Here is how the latest AP Top 25 Poll looks like heading into conference championship weekend.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (1,550 points, 62 first-place votes)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (1,484 points)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (1,378 points)
  4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (1,373 points)
  5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (1,302 points)
  6. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (1,200 points)
  7. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (1,174 points)
  8. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (1,127 points)
  9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (1,059 points)
  10. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (1,036 points)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (840 points)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (832 points)
  13. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (789 points)
  14. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (756 points)
  15. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (717 points)
  16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (647 points)
  17. BYU Cougars (10-2) (548 points)
  18. Clemson Tigers (9-3) (502 points)
  19. UNLV Rebels (10-2) (340 points)
  20. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) (295 points)
  21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) (274 points)
  22. Missouri Tigers (9-3) (214 points)
  23. Syracuse Orange (9-3) (206 points)
  24. Army Black Knights (10-1) (182 points)
  25. Memphis Tigers (10-2) (121 points)

Here is every team that received at least one vote from the Associated Press after the Week 14 slate.

  • Texas A&M Aggies (93 points)
  • Louisville Cardinals (45 points)
  • Duke Blue Devils (30 points)
  • Kansas State Wildcats (10 points)
  • Tulane Green Wave (9 points)
  • LSU Tigers (6 points)
  • Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (5 points)
  • Florida Gators (4 points)
  • Michigan Wolverines (1 point)
  • Baylor Bears (1 point)

If we used the AP Top 25 Poll as the basis for the 12-team playoff, here is who would be making it in.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustgangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
  8. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
  9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And based on the latest AP Top 25 Poll, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff field.

  • 13. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
  • 14. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) (ACC)
  • 15. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
  • 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Now that we have all that information, here are the teams that will be ranked differently Tuesday night.

For more Rivalry Week content, check out FanSided’s Ultimate Guide to College Football Rivalries, an in-depth and interactive look at the deep traditions, rich history, iconic venues and memorable moments of college football’s biggest rivalries.

No. 18 Clemson Tigers will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

I don't know if I would agree with it, but I would not be the least bit shocked if the Clemson Tigers were slotted a spot or two higher in the penultimate rankings than where the Associated Press has them at No. 19. Losing The Palmetto Bowl to South Carolina means the Tigers have to beat SMU in the ACC Championship to have any shot in. Right now with where they are ranked, they would be bid stealing.

Frankly, that may end up being the case anyway, but there are three very good reasons why Clemson may be slotted just a tick higher: Georiga, SMU and South Carolina. For the Dawgs, it gives their Week 1 win even more credibility. For SMU, it provides the Mustangs some cushion should the fall to the Tigers in Charlotte. And for South Carolina, it would give the Gamecocks a better shot at making it in.

What you have to remember is the College Football Playoff is an ESPN property, so ACC and SEC...

No. 17 BYU Cougars will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

For as good of a season as BYU had in the Big 12, it does not serve anyone involved to potentially have the Cougars be a reason a more deserving team ends up getting its bid stolen. What I am getting at is even if the Cougars are comfortably out at No. 17 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll with their 10-2 record, only the Big 12 champion is getting in this year and that is it. Let's not make this harder.

This is the team that I think Clemson will be unjustifiably ranked ahead of because the Tigers can still win its Power Four conference and the Cougars cannot. With Arizona State at No. 12, the Sun Devils would not be bid stealing. With a win over Arizona State, I could see the Selection Committee justifying moving Iowa State up from No. 16 to No. 12 before we even get to the most critical seeding.

In short, BYU is an easy pick for the Selection Committee to downgrade to help Clemson out a tad.

No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

The Selection Committee will probably make me look like an idiot here, but I would have a very hard time leaving South Carolina out of the playoff field. Even if their win over Texas A&M has been muted because of the Aggies' latest loss, South Carolina just beat Clemson. All of the Gamecocks' losses are understandable. The Ole Miss defeat was bad, but they were without LaNorris Sellers for that one.

I hate to say it, but the Selection Committee is going to look at the helmet at the very end and put Alabama in over a more deserving team like South Carolina. It does not matter that South Carolina lost to them head-to-head. It was a nail-biter that went down to the wire. For my money, nobody is playing better football in the SEC right now than the Gamecocks. They would be a dangerous No. 12...

Having South Carolina as the last team in over the first team out will make other blue-bloods sweat.

No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

If we went off the latest AP Top 25 Poll, No. 11 Alabama would be the last team in at No. 11, metaphorically speaking. Technically, No. 12 Arizona State would be the last team in, but I am talking about the seventh at-large team. While I do argue that Alabama is a better candidate to make it in over Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide lost to Oklahoma, which is a worse loss than any South Carolina has.

Even though everything that needed to happen for Alabama to potentially make the playoff went their way last weekend, they may need a little more help to get in. I would expect for the Crimson Tide to be one of the final six teams up for discussion for the last two spots in. They could make the playoff a bit more interesting because of their high ceiling. Then again, no team in mix offers more variance either.

Alabama is the bigger brand, but I do not see the Selection Committee wanting to screw over SMU.

No. 8 SMU Mustangs will be higher in College Football Playoff rankings

This is the one under-ranked team I have the most beef with. SMU should probably switch places with the team ranked ahead of them in Ohio State. The Mustangs may lack a quality win, but they do not have a bad loss. Ohio State has two quality wins, but their second loss on the year to Michigan is not the least bit good. What I am getting at is SMU should be a playoff lock, not fighting for its playoff life.

When it comes to the four teams playing in the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games between Oregon, Penn State, Georgia and Texas, none of them are going to be eliminated with a loss. Clemson and the Big 12 loser obviously will, but why do we need to put the Mustangs in the same bucket? They do not belong there. If they were to fall to Clemson, I get leaving them out, but I would hate that.

If the Mustangs were ranked one spot higher than No. 8, I would feel great about their playoff odds.

No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes will be lower in College Football Playoff rankings

You know what? I think Ohio State should be in the same group as Alabama in needing to sweat it out to potentially make the playoff. Their two wins over Penn State and Indiana will almost certainly get them in there, but I think having them ranked at No. 7 just behind Tennessee and Georgia really puts teams like SMU behind the eight ball. I feel Indiana is safe at 11-1, but I'd hate seeing them punished.

All things equal, I would still put Ohio State in over Alabama and South Carolina if it came down to the last spot in. My biggest concern is I don't want them to ruin Indiana and SMU's greatest seasons ever just because the Buckeyes could not get it done vs. Michigan for the fourth year in a row. For that reason, I think the Selection Committee is far more inclined to punish them than the AP ever would.

Ohio State built a big enough of a lead to make the playoff, but they are messing it up for everyone.

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