We are not exactly seeing ghosts anymore when it comes to Sam Darnold, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical that he will be able to replicate what he did with the Minnesota Vikings now that he is on the Seattle Seahawks. Point blank, he was not a productive player under pressure. Frankly, neither was Geno Smith last year in what was his final season quarterbacking the Seahawks.
Steven Patton of Patton Analytics looked at FTN's data when it comes to "Quarterback Efficiency under Pressure" to prove a point: Lamar Jackson was not the only outlier in the positive last season. Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is more than "just chopped liver." Meanwhile, Darnold and Smith are on the other end of the spectrum. The only player worse under pressure last season was Caleb Williams.
Admittedly, this is a metric that should regress to the mean, which is negative, in most instances the more often a player plays. Having to drop back to throw is more common for quarterbacks who take a lot of snaps under center, especially when they are trailing. Derek Carr finished third behind Jackson and Allen, but he did not play in anywhere close to as many games as the MVP finalists did last year.
Here is the breakdown of "Quarterback Efficiency under Pressure" with a minimum of 175 dropbacks.
Darnold and Smith being nearly minus-100 points added is a massive problem for the Seahawks.
Sam Darnold is not guaranteed to be a success on the Seattle Seahawks
For the better part of my adult life, the Seahawks have not exactly been a bastion for great offensive line play. Things could be changing under their new regime, but it was an area where their former long-time head coach Pete Carroll would cut corners a bit. By having a mobile quarterback, it could somewhat make up for not having the greatest pass protectors up front. He loved to run the football.
Admittedly, the Vikings offensive line has been hit or miss throughout much of the last few years. They have good players up front, but do not always get the right five working together in unison. There is also some belief that Darnold still holds onto the ball too long. Behind a porous offensive line, that could be problematic, especially when head coach Mike Macdonald favors the other side of the ball.
Then again, Darnold is coming off the best year of his career and Smith had his best run as his professional during his three years leading the Seahawks in the post-Russell Wilson era. What I am getting at is this data is not everything, but it is something. I found myself thinking Darnold's one year with the Vikings was too good to be true. Will he play like Smith or will he play like Case Keenum did?
Keep in mind that Darnold's first career pass was Brett Favre across-the-body atrocious interception.