Arch Manning should not rush turning pro: Why he should stay at Texas through 2026
By John Buhler
This never had to be this hard. Frankly, it does not have to be. While Arch Manning is the toast of the town in Austin now, he needs to start for a full two seasons at Texas before he even thinks about entering the NFL Draft. Although some NFL talent evaluators may like his upside after next season, his family is way too calculated to take on some absurd risk. This is America's first family in football!
There are three very obvious reasons as to why Manning should not even think about entering the NFL Draft until 2027. The first would be his lack of starts at the college level. He has something like two in his first two years at Texas. The second would be a deep quarterback draft class in 2026. Guys like Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier and Carson Beck will turn pro. The third is if Manning can even play.
We know that Manning came into Texas with a five-star ranking next to his name. After two years at Texas, we have seen that he is a willing runner in Steve Sarkisian's offense. This has helped Texas in short-yardage and goal-line situations, but he still has to develop as a passer. He may play different than his two uncles, but Manning seems to have the ability to extend plays like his grandfather did.
Not until Manning approaches or exceeds 30 career starts at Texas should he think about leaving.
Arch Manning needs to win and start for the next two seasons at Texas
Drafting quarterbacks is not an exact science, but there are three things I hold true when evaluating them. If a player gets hurt in college, he will get hurt in the NFL. At the end of the day, you cannot train an inaccurate passer in the college game to be more precise professionally. And while it is not a guarantee of success at the next level, those without 24 college career starts are destined to fail.
This is why I clamored for Manning's Texas predecessor of Quinn Ewers to return last year. He carried with him an injury-prone label, enough to the point where he was not quite at the necessary number of starts. While he garnered enough starts to merit turning pro, Ewers was still unable to shake his injury-prone label. Ewers may be a late first-round pick or could be coming off the board in day two.
See, no matter how I slice it, I struggle to see The Mannings allowing Arch to leave school any sooner than after his fourth season of college ball. To be totally honest, I would not be all that surprised if he sticks around for a fifth season. Again, we still have to see him grow as a passer quite considerably. After this year, he will have something like 16 starts. In two years, 30-plus. In three, maybe even 45!
Overall, The Mannings were never going to feed Arch to the wolves. They have way too much equity in the college and pro games for that to even be allowed to happen. Any move that he could be making will be calculated and premeditated. The only way he leaves Texas after the next two years are if Sarkisian leaves Texas. At that point, then we could potentially see Manning in another uniform.
Right now, I think it is a foolish proposition to think Manning would turn pro after next college season.